Back with another New York Jets mailbag are our writers Paul ‘Boy Green’ Esden Jr. and Michael Obermuller, and this week will look ahead to training camp battles and final offseason pursuits while also doubling back on a couple of Joe Douglas draft classes.
It’s our 100th edition of this weekly Q&A with fans, so thank you to all the readers who have been with us from No. 1 through No. 99, as well as any new readers. A look back at our most recent mailbags:
- Week 97: OTA overreactions, minicamp canceled & who goes if Dalvin Cook joins Jets?
- Week 98: Predicting most impactful & bang-for-buck NYJ signings, Aaron Rodgers/Pats rumors & Adrian Amos vs Chuck Clark.
- Week 99: Overlooked Jets, George Fant’s unemployment & any chance Zach Wilson is traded?
Final Jets Moves in 2023 NFL Free Agency
1. The Jets still have a little over $23.15 million in available cap space. Assuming some of that goes toward an Aaron Rodgers restructure and/or Quinnen Williams extension, give me one final signing or trade that Joe Douglas should use some of this money on.
Boy Green:
I think the most important addition left to make on this Jets roster is at the running back position. Fans often misinterpret this kind of question. I can already hear fans clamoring for an offensive lineman, but who is available?
You have to factor availability into the question and there are so many talented backs that are strangely available here in the month of July. I’d take Kareem Hunt, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette or Dalvin Cook (more on that in question two).
Breece Hall is coming off of a torn ACL and who knows if he can return to form in 2023. Michael Carter didn’t deliver as a sophomore and could be trade bait later this offseason. Zonovan Knight seems like a type of player fans think more highly of him than the team does. I have high hopes for Israel Abanikanda but let’s be honest, he was a day-three pick for a reason. It’s time for Joe Douglas to get with the program already.
Obermuller:
I disagree with my partner, and still feel that the position that’s most in need of another veteran is linebacker. As much as I’ve talked up Jamien Sherwood — and for those that have followed this page a long time, I’ve been one of the bigger Sherwood supporters around — the Jets are one C.J. Mosley injury away from having an LB core of Quincy Williams, “Wood” and rookie sixth rounder Zaire Barnes.
You can’t have that on a Super Bowl contender. Look at the Kansas City Chiefs, for example. They signed Drue Tranquill this spring when they already had Nick Bolton, Willie Gay Jr. and Leo Chenal. Sherwood is Chenal in this scenario, and Douglas should still bring in insurance as KC did.
While the obvious choice is still Kwon Alexander based on familiarity, I’ll give you a new name. How about Myles Jack? The former second-round pick only turns 28 in September, and he outsnapped Alexander with the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2022.
His numbers were also comparable according to Pro Football Focus. Alexander was a little better in coverage with a lower passer rating against, but Jack’s main job won’t be pass coverage as the third linebacker that sits when the Jets are in nickel formation — it would be sound tackling and run defense. In that area, Jack was superior to Alexander with a lower missed tackle percentage, 28 key “stops” and over 100 total tackles for the third straight season.
A lessened role on a win-now team could be just what the doctor ordered for Jack’s career too, as he transitions from youthful starter to impact veteran.
2. Let’s argue, why should the Jets sign/avoid Dalvin Cook at running back?
BG:
Dalvin Cook is one of the most productive running backs in the NFL. The statistical production he has churned out over the last four years rivals any running back over that same span. I’ve heard a lot of people nitpick the analytics with explosiveness and a decreasing yards-per-carry average. I think those arguments are totally overblown though — look at the raw numbers they speak for themselves.
If it takes the $11 million salary he was due with the Minnesota Vikings that might prove too rich for me. However, if that number is a $5M or $6M base structure with built-in incentives, I’d be all over that.
Cook would be a massive upgrade over any running back on the Jets roster, especially those behind Hall. If the former Iowa State product is compromised in any way to start the season — a real possibility — I don’t trust the other guys on the roster to hold down the fort in a meaningful way. Anyone that disagrees needs to put down the Jets’ Kool-Aid and handle the truth. It just ain’t good enough, plain and simple.
MO:
As a general manager, you NEVER sign a player because of what they’ve done, you sign them because of what they can do for you in the present/future. And I don’t think Cook has much left in the tank.
I’d be willing to give him $3 million guaranteed (plus incentives), but not a penny more against the cap. I wouldn’t say I’m an analytics guy, typically, but it makes a lot of sense to trust the analytics at the running back position — which probably has the quickest drop-off in all of sports.
If you’re looking for a more in-depth analysis, this link has everything you need to know on why the Jets should avoid Cook, but I’ll put it in a way that’s easier to understand. Analytically speaking, Cook’s effectiveness was on par with NYJ RBs like Carter and Knight last year — he just had a higher volume of touches and a much better offensive line.
Cook is also a home-run hitter and often pads his yards per carry with a big run late in the game. When those gainers don’t actually impact the outcome, that’s called “empty yardage” in the analytical world. Add in that Cook drops a lot of passes and fumbles the ball often, and I don’t see the argument for paying him anything more than $3 million in guarantees.
Jets Training Camp Battles to Watch in 2023
3. Jets training camp is just around the corner, which competition for a starting job excites you most?
BG:
There are so many battles and I’m really excited for Jets training camp to get underway here shortly.
I’ll take the bait — the offensive tackle situation is what I’ll be watching closely. Is it destined to be Duane Brown and Mekhi Becton or do the football Gods have other plans? Can they stay healthy? That didn’t happen last season.
This may sound hyperbolic but the very fate of the Jets season and Aaron Rodgers for that matter lies with the offensive line. If they succeed, the Jets could go to the Super Bowl. If they flop, New York could be a middling team stuck in purgatory.
MO:
Sticking with the “Hog Molly” theme, I’m very interested to see if rookie center Joe Tippmann can blow past veterans Connor McGovern and Wes Schweitzer on the depth chart in training camp.
I don’t think there’s cause for concern if the second-round selection doesn’t start in Week 1, given the win-now nature of the season. Having said that, if he’s out there you can pretty much confirm that the Jets drafted a stud and Gang Green needs Tippmann to be the long-term answer at center.
4. In the same vein as the last question, which positional roster battle excites you most from a depth/cuts perspective?
BG:
It’s a toss-up between the tight end and wide receiver position. I’ll lean towards the tight end spot because there is a bit more versatility there.
Gang Green could utilize Jeremy Ruckert in a H-back/fullback/tight end role to kill multiple birds with a singular stone. If they do that, I can see four tight ends making the roster.
If they don’t, the Jets could try to cut Zack Kuntz and slide him through waivers. I think C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin and Ruckert are all locks to make the roster but the Jets’ abundance of depth at the position really makes you think.
MO:
Running through 53-man projections, I feel like the Jets will have fewer surprise cuts than usual in 2023. That’s not because the UDFA class is weak. To the contrary, it looks pretty strong.
However, it feels like the Jets also have more roster locks than ever before with a win-now roster that is somewhat set at most positions. The only three or four that really jump out at me are offensive tackle, wide receiver/tight end and safety.
I’ll be looking forward to Denzel Mims versus youngsters Irvin Charles, Jason Brownlee and Xavier Gipson at WR, but I’ll also have my eye on Tony Adams, Trey Dean and Marquis Waters attempting to unseat veterans like Adrian Amos and Ashtyn Davis at safety.
Looking Back at Joe Douglas’ First 2 Draft Classes With the Jets
5. Douglas’ first two draft classes (2020 & 2021) have not turned out as expected. After the 53-man cutdown this August, predict the number of draft picks that will remain on the Week 1 roster from those two classes combined.
BG:
I think there will be eight players who make the final roster from those two draft classes combined: Mekhi Becton, Ashtyn Davis, Bryce Hall (from 2020). Zach Wilson, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Jamien Sherwood, Michael Carter II, Brandin Echols (from 2021).
I think Michael Carter (the running back) gets traded away after the Jets sign Cook. Mims isn’t making this roster either, so he’ll get waived or traded ahead of roster cuts.
On the other hand, the Echols’ suspension keeps Hall alive in the cornerback room. And I know the coaching staff loves Davis and his abilities on special teams so despite what some fans may say, I think he stays.
MO:
Douglas’ 2022 class really saved him because these first two years are UG-LY. For Week 1, my answer will be two from 2020 and six from 2021 (eight total) — could also see LB Hamsah Nasirildeen returning on the practice squad like last year, but we won’t count that for the sake of this exercise.
My selections are the same as my partner with one alteration. I think Michael Carter (the RB) will stay, and Ashtyn Davis will finally be cut.
Note: I could also see Hall sticking around for Week 1 due to Echols’ suspension, then getting traded sometime after that. If the Jets are healthy at cornerback, I can’t see them keeping the former fifth rounder late into the season when he’s a free agent next year.
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Jets Marriage With ‘Impact Veteran’ Could Be Just What the Doctor Ordered