49ers Free Agent Predicted to Earn $81 Million Deal: Analyst

Getty The 49ers huddle against the Las Vegas Raiders on January 1, 2023 at Allegiant Stadium.

The Las Vegas Raiders officially have a quarterback opening as of Tuesday, February 14, breaking off ties with longtime franchise quarterback Derek Carr.

Names like Aaron Rodgers, the retired Tom Brady and Lamar Jackson have been mentioned as possible replacements by analysts. But three days prior to the Silver and Black making the decision on Carr, David Kenyon of Bleacher Report already predicted this name replacing him and included the predicted contract for Carr’s replacement: Jimmy Garoppolo of the San Francisco 49ers, who the Raiders would sign for three years worth up to $81 million.

Why Garoppolo to Raiders is a Fit

While there’s the potential to land a big name quarterback a month from now when free agency begins, Garoppolo being attached to the Raiders has its significant reasons.

For one, head coach Kyle Shanahan already told reporters two days after the NFC title game loss that he doesn’t see a scenario where Garoppolo returns — allowing Jimmy G to this time to walk via free agency after fielding trade offers last offseason.

Secondly, it appears Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels wants someone he’s more familiar with and previously worked with. His best option in that regard would be Garoppolo as the two were with the New England Patriots. McDaniels served as quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator during Garoppolo’s first three seasons in the league from 2014 to 2016.

It wouldn’t be the first time someone linked to McDaniels was mentioned as a possible QB option for him. In 2009 he tried to orchestrate a trade with former Patriots quarterback Matt Cassel which led to a highly publicized falling out with Jay Cutler. Brady’s name continues to be mentioned given his lengthy ties to McDaniels. Garoppolo, meanwhile, went undefeated as a starter during Brady’s suspension for the “deflategate” scandal. He also threw five touchdown passes and zero interceptions with McDaniels around him.

Third, McDaniels and the Raiders will likely love this stat line involving Garoppolo: 40-17, his overall record. For a team with aspirations of making it back to the playoffs and topping the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs atop the AFC West, McDaniels and the Raiders will have to lure in someone who’s been a proven winner and has Super Bowl experience on his end. The two-time Super Bowl champion and 2019 season NFC champion Garoppolo could appeal for that third reason.

Hefty Contract Would Still Carry Big Risk

While the Raiders may get enticed to hand Garoppolo that kind of money Kenyon is predicting, it does come with its risks for handing him a deal that would make him the fourth-highest paid QB among the 2023 free agent class.

Biggest risk is health. Garoppolo has only played one full season in his nine seasons in the league — the 2019 NFC title winning season when he threw for a career-best 3,978 yards and 27 touchdowns. He was limited to six games the following season and has started in a combined 25 of 34 regular season games from 2021 to 2022. Kenyon adds that the potential deal for Garoppolo carries $54 million guaranteed. Most fans and analysts will look at the dollar figure and believe that’s too much money for someone who hasn’t proven he can consistently stay healthy.

There will be other teams linked to Garoppolo’s name. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans — the latter now having former 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans and hiring 49ers pass game specialist Bobby Slowik as offensive coordinator — are three teams that come to mind. But the early prediction is, Garoppolo will reunite with McDaniels on a hefty salary with the Raiders.