With Election Day on Tuesday, Hillary Clinton’s odds of being the next president of the United States are resurgent, even if her lead in many opinion polls is not.
The FBI announced Sunday that it found no wrongdoing during an investigation into a new batch of Clinton’s emails dating from her time as U.S. Secretary of State. That factored into Clinton’s odds coming down to -550 while Republican nominee Donald Trump’s odds rose to +375, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com.
That mirrors the odds on October 25 – when Clinton was also listed at -550 and Trump was +350 – before a fluctuation at the beginning of November.
It is possible to win the presidency without winning the popular vote – indeed, it happened in 1960 (John F. Kennedy against Richard Nixon) and 2000 (George W. Bush against Al Gore). The Democrats, though, have even lower odds in that prop, where they are listed at -600 and the Republicans are at +400.
That suggests that oddsmakers, based on the fact the polls have occasionally tightened or shown a near dead-heat but have never shown Trump with a clear lead against Clinton, might be anticipating a Democratic landslide.
Where the props get contentious is in pegging how many states each major party candidate will win and what percentage of the popular vote he or she will garner.
The over/under on total states won, for either party, is 25.5. In 2008 and 2012 Democrat Barack Obama carried 28 and 26 states, respectively. A scenario where Trump and the Republicans make the over likely involves winning battleground states Michigan and Ohio.
With a surge in Latino turnout, the total on voter turnout is 58%, with over listed at -165 and under at +125. Turnout was estimated at 57.5% in 2012, but if often goes down when a sitting president is up for re-election.
In the popular vote props for Trump, the chalk pick is 44-46.99% at +145. There’s more value, +450, in betting that Trump receives 47-49.99% support. The +1000 prop on the businessman slumping to 38-40.99% is also enticing, but no Republican nominee has done that poorly in a two-way race since Barry Goldwater in 1964. George Bush received only 37.4% in 1992, but much of the conservative vote went to challenger H. Ross Perot.
The chalk has Clinton at +135 to get in between 47-49.99% of the popular vote. There is more value on betting on the one-time First Lady to get 50-52.99%, which holds a +210 prop. That would be on par with the support for Obama, but the outgoing president was much more personally popular than Clinton.
Clinton is also listed at +700 at the Bovada sportsbook to get at least 53% of the vote. No one has been elected with such high popular support since the elder Bush (53.4%) in 1988.