The Golden State Warriors saw their season come to an end Friday night, falling 111-96 to the Phoenix Suns in the NBA Play-In Tournament. With the loss, Golden State now shifts its focus to a pivotal offseason — one that begins with the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery.
Jalen Green scored 36 points and Devin Booker added 20 as Phoenix secured the No. 8 seed and advanced to face the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. Meanwhile, the Warriors’ elimination locked them into the No. 11 lottery position.
Warriors Draft Lottery Odds for 2026 NBA Draft
By virtue of finishing with the 11th-worst record, Golden State enters the lottery with long but notable odds. The Warriors hold a 2.0% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick, along with a 2.2% probability at No. 2 and 2.4% odds for the No. 3 pick. Their chances of jumping into the top four sit at 2.8%.
The most likely outcome, however, is remaining at No. 11, which carries a 77.6% probability. Golden State also has a 12.6% chance of slipping to No. 12 and a slim 0.4% chance of falling to No. 13.
Despite the low odds, recent history shows the lottery can be unpredictable. Last year, the Dallas Mavericks had just a 1.8% chance to win the lottery and jumped 10 spots to secure the No. 1 pick — the largest leap in lottery history, according to ESPN.
In 2024, the Atlanta Hawks also defied the odds with just a 3% chance to win the lottery — the fifth-lowest probability by any team to land the No. 1 pick since the system began in 1985, per ESPN.
NBA Draft Lottery Format and How It Works
The NBA Draft Lottery determines the order of the first 14 selections in the draft. Four drawings are conducted to decide the top four picks, with the remaining lottery teams slotted in reverse order of regular-season record.
The system uses 14 ping-pong balls to generate 1,000 possible combinations, each assigned to lottery teams based on their odds. The drawing process is repeated for each of the top four picks.
Since the league’s 2019 reform, the lottery system has flattened the odds at the top. The three worst teams each receive a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, ensuring greater parity and reducing incentives for tanking.
Key Dates for 2026 NBA Draft Process
The path to the draft is already underway. The Early Entry deadline is set for April 24, while the 2026 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on May 10.
The NBA Draft Combine will follow from May 10-17 in Chicago.
The 2026 NBA Draft will be held June 23 and 24, with both rounds beginning at 8 p.m. ET.
Warriors Face Crucial Offseason Decisions
GettyHead coach Steve Kerr, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green of the Golden State Warriors hug during the final moments of an NBA play-in tournament game against the Phoenix Suns.
Golden State’s elimination highlights the need for roster evaluation and potential reinforcements. Stephen Curry was limited to 17 points on 4-of-16 shooting in the loss, while Brandin Podziemski led the team with 23 points. The Warriors also struggled to contain Phoenix’s offense, which shot efficiently from beyond the arc.
Kristaps Porzingis played through right ankle soreness, logging 11 points in limited minutes, underscoring the team’s injury concerns late in the season.
Porzingis will become a free agent. Steve Kerr’s coaching contract is set to expire. Draymond Green has a player option. And then there’s the NBA Draft.
With the lottery odds now set, the Warriors must weigh their options carefully. Whether they stay at No. 11 or geTt lucky with a jump, the draft presents an opportunity to reshape the roster around Curry and the team’s veteran core.
Lottery Position Locks Warriors Into Uncertain Future
While Golden State’s chances of landing a top pick remain slim, the unpredictability of the lottery keeps hope alive. As the franchise enters a critical offseason, all eyes will be on May 10 — when the ping-pong balls could alter the trajectory of the Warriors’ future.
Warriors Draft Lottery Odds After Play-In Exit — Can They Jump to No. 1?