Heidi Heitkamp Polls: She Trails Kevin Cramer in ND Senate Race

heidi heitkamp polls

Getty Heidi Heitkamp polls show the North Dakota senator trailing Kevin Cramer.

Heidi Heitkamp, the North Dakota senator, trails challenger Kevin Cramer in recent polling in the North Dakota race for U.S. Senate.

Heitkamp, a Democratic incumbent, will appear on 60 Minutes on October 7, 2018 along with Republican Sen. Susan Collins to discuss their divergent votes on the Brett Kavanaugh nomination to the U.S. Supreme Court. Heitkamp voted against confirming Kavanaugh. She is battling challenger Cramer to retain her Senate seat. Cramer leads by 8.7% in the RealClearPolitics polling average, as of October 7, 2018.

There have not been a lot of polls in the race, but some of them are showing that voting against Kavanaugh might hurt Heitkamp. Heitkamp told 60 Minutes that her vote was not just about politics, saying, “I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. I think that the politically expedient vote here was a ‘yes’ vote.”

Kramer was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 2012. He is the only North Dakotan in the House, and he serves on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. Heitkamp, the Democrat in the race, is the state’s former Attorney General. She became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from North Dakota in 2012.

Here’s what you need to know:


Fox News [9/29/18 to 10/02/18]

Kevin Cramer 53%
Heidi Heitkamp 41%

This poll measured the Kavanaugh effect on the race. It found that, among likely voters, 34% were less likely to vote for Heitkamp if she voted no on Kavanaugh, 17% were more likely, and 46% said it wouldn’t make a difference.

The poll showed Heitkamp winning independents. However, Kramer was winning with women as well as men.


NBC Valley News [9/17/18 to 9/27/18]

Kevin Cramer 51%
Heidi Heitkamp 41%

This poll found 60% of likely voters supported Kavanaugh’s nomination and 27% opposed it, but it was taken before Kavanaugh and Dr. Christine Blasey Ford testified.


Mason Dixon [6/13/18 to 6/15/18]

Kevin Cramer 48%
Heidi Heitkamp 44%

You can read more about this poll here.

According to RealClearPolitics, as of September 13, 2018, “All parties involved seem to agree that Kevin Cramer has a slight lead here over incumbent Heidi Heitkamp. Even in a year where Democrats are expected to perform well, a race in a state where the president retains a positive net approval rating may be too big of a haul for them.”

President Donald Trump won North Dakota by a very large margin in 2016. Polls have also shown a possible Kavanaugh effect in the Missouri Senate race, where the incumbent there is also trying to hold on to her seat. However, the effect on the midterms remains volatile and uncertain.