(Getty)
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In what is being forecast as one of the most lopsided contests of Week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) travel to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots (2-2) at Gillette Stadium.
Oddsmakers favor the red-hot Pats by 14 points with an over-under of 48.
The Patriots are 1-0-1 against the spread so far this season. Surprisingly a one-point dog at Buffalo, they covered easily. In Week 1, they appeared set to cover the seven points against Pittsburgh, but an otherwise meaningless Antonio Brown touchdown with two seconds left turned that one into a back-door push. And while they’ve been clicking offensively, they’ve hit the over just once. They nearly did so by themselves (40-32 win with an total of 44.5) against Buffalo, but they came up short (28-21 with a total of 51) against the Steelers.
On the flip side, the Jags have had similar results. They went over and easily covered the spread as 5.5-point underdogs in last week’s surprising win over the Miami Dolphins, but went under and failed to cover the three-point spread in a 20-9 defeat against Carolina in Week 1.
The Patriots are going to put up points. Led by Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman and Dion Lewis, New England has proven nearly impossible to stop on offense thus far. Not counting kneel downs, they have scored on 12 of their 21 drives, while their five punts are tied for the lowest mark in the NFL. At home against a Jaguars defense that allowed 8.2 yards per pass to Ryan Tannehill, they should move the ball with ease.
What happens on the other side of the ball is a little more difficult to predict. The Jaguars have a slew of talented young weaapons in Blake Bortles, Allen Robinson and T.J. Yeldon, and the Pats have allowed the fifth-most yards per play (6.2) in the NFL. Bortles is still raw, though, and he could be without O-linemen Luke Joeckel and Brandon Linder. That adds to an already tall task in a tough environment when Bill Belichick is likely to make things hard on him.
Ultimately, the Jaguars will be playing from behind, so they should throw enough on New England’s shaky secondary to score points and help hit the over. But it won’t be enough to cover against New England’s efficient offensive attack.
Prediction: Jaguars 17, Patriots 34 (Patriots SU, Patriots ATS, Over)