Rumor has it that J.J. Watt may play without his “club” this week against Jacksonville. (Getty)
The Texans are a six-point favorite at most betting sites heading into Sunday, where a win over the Jaguars would see them crowned AFC South champions. The Texans have won three straight over Jacksonville, and will welcome starting QB Brian Hoyer back to the lineup.
With Hoyer back in the lineup, the Texans are a favorite by their biggest margin since Week 3, when they covered a six-point spread in a win over Tampa. Now, with a division championship on line, Houston can end the season with a three-game win streak and sweep of the division.
After whispers of playoffs started in Jacksonville, the wheels began to fall off. Now the Jaguars have lost four of their last five games, and have only covered once over that span. If there’s any consolation, Blake Bortles and the offense will have high expectations for 2016. Jacksonville is averaging almost 25 points per game this season, and has hit the over in eight of their last eleven games.
In the previous meeting of these teams, the Texans got a huge game from DeAndre Hopkins. With 10 grabs for 148 yards and two scores, Hopkins provided the difference in a 31-20 Texans win. In a game that may not be necessary, Hopkins may not be featured towards the end of the game. If that’s the case, taking the points could be your best option.
If the Jaguars want to win, they need to keep Blake Bortles upright. That includes blocking J.J. Watt, who could be playing without a cast tomorrow for the first time in several weeks. Watt has 14.5 sacks this season, just 0.5 behind league-leader Khalil Mack.
The point total for this game has been set at 45.5, according to OddsShark.com. That number has been met only twice in the last five meetings between these teams, and it’s unlikely the Texans will truly push to outscore the Jaguars with the playoffs ahead. Houston is the better team, but that’s why they have a future next week, and Jacksonville doesn’t.
The OddsShark computer is predicting a 15.0 – 29.2 Houston victory.
Jacksonville vs. Houston Prediction: Jaguars SU & ATS
