Pending their completion of an upset to Oklahoma, there will be much chatter about Houston’s chances of making the College Football Playoff in the coming days. They are a long-shot given they play in the AAC, but the idea is not as far-fetched as you may think given a few key reasons.
To even be in the playoff mix, Houston needed to not just defeat Oklahoma but win decisively. They are on their way to accomplishing that. The Cougars are also helped by starting the season ranked 15th in the AP poll. While the two polls do not play an official role in the College Football Playoff, they do play a part in public perception.
Houston proved last season they could hang with top teams after defeating Florida State in the Peach Bowl. The Cougars will enter conference play as heavy favorites to win the American with their remaining games extremely winnable.
Here is the challenge for Houston fans. Their two remaining non-conference games are against Lamar and Texas State, not exactly national championship contenders. The committee has penalized playoff candidates (see Baylor) in the past for playing mediocre teams in their non-conference schedule.
Houston will have completed their most difficult game on the schedule with more than three months to go before the College Football Playoff teams are decided.
In addition to winning the rest of their games, Houston will need help in a few different areas. Last season, the AAC established itself as the best conference outside the Power Five. Houston will need the conference to rate highly again this season.
The Cougars will also likely need several Power Five conference champions to have two losses. This would open up the door for a an undefeated Houston to sneak in.
A lot can (and will) happen between now and December. Houston has at least done its part to start the playoff conversation with its defeat of Oklahoma. The question is whether the College Football Playoff committee will view their final body of work at the end of the season.