It's time for Week 5 in the NFL. Tom Brady's return to the New England Patriots is arguably the biggest story of the weekend, and the Atlanta Falcons' red-hot offense going up against the Denver Broncos' lock-down defense is probably the biggest game of the weekend, but there is still plenty more going on around the league. Of the 14 games on the Week 5 slate (Seahawks, Saints, Jaguars and Chiefs are on a bye), six contests are between two teams that are at .500 or better, while seven have a spread that is under four points and several others have shootout potential. As most teams are now a quarter of the way through their regular season and beginning to find their identities, it should be a highly entertaining week of football. You can click through the gallery for a look at my favorite picks against the spread, with all odds and lines courtesy of OddsShark. (Getty)
Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: at Detroit Lions
Line: PHI (-3)
The Eagles are not only coming off an extra week of rest, but they were playing like one of the best teams in NFL before their Week 4 bye. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz, who has played like a poised veteran, leads an offense that has committed zero turnovers through three games, while the Lions are last in the NFL in takeaways (one) and 31st in yards per play allowed (6.3). The Eagles have the advantage on the other side of the ball, too, as the defense has been one of the best surprises of the year, ranking first in scoring defense and second in Football Outsiders' defensive efficiency ratings. (Getty)
Chicago Bears
Opponent: at Indianapolis Colts
Line: CHI (+4.5)
Teams typically get a bye week after having to play in London, but the Colts get no such luxury. They at least get to play at home, but don't be surprised if they come out a bit sluggish in this one. And while the Bears (1-3) don't exactly serve as the most formidable opponent, the offense is averaging 399.0 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play in Brian Hoyer's two starts and should be able to move the ball efficiently against a Colts defense that ranks 30th in Football Outsiders' efficiency ratings. Throw in the fact that Chicago is getting 4.5 points, and this is a strong bet to make. (Getty)
New England Patriots
Opponent: at Cleveland Browns
Line: NE (-10.5)
You don't see double-digit spreads a lot in the NFL, but something tells me spotting the Browns 10.5 points here just isn't going to be enough. You know that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady will be looking to make a huge statement (or give a middle finger to the NFL) in the latter's first game back from suspension, and Cleveland doesn't figure to offer much resistance. The Browns' four losses this season have come by an average of 10.25 points (and none of the opponents have been as formidable as a Brady-led Patriots squad), they have a rookie QB under center and the defense is 27th in points allowed per game. This one isn't going to be pretty. (Getty)
Baltimore Ravens
Opponent: vs. Washington Redskins
Line: BAL (-3.5)
Since Marc Trestman took over as the Ravens offensive coordinator last season, Joe Flacco has started seven games at home, completing 64.9 percent of his passes for 294.6 yards per game and a TD:INT ratio of 10:5. Compare that to seven games on the road, where he has completed 63.5 percent of his passes for 257.29 yards per game and a TD:INTO ratio of 8:11. He should be able to move the ball with ease against the Redskins, who are 30th in the NFL in yards per play allowed, while the defense, which ranks fourth in Football Outsiders' efficiency ratings, can slow down Kirk Cousins and Co. enough to win the all-Maryland matchup. (Getty)
Houston Texans
Opponent: at Minnesota Vikings
Line: HOU (+6.5)
Believe me, picking against the Vikings, arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now, doesn't thrill me. But with the Texans being spotted a touchdown in some places, they're hard to pass up. That's because, while Minnesota's defense is smothering teams right now, the offense isn't built for huge blowouts. They are the middle of the road (17th) in scoring offense, and their four wins have come by nine, three, 12 and 14 points. The offensive line has been especially problematic, ranking dead last in adjusted sack rate allowed, while the Texans' D-line ranks sixth-best in the same category. I expect Minnesota to come away still undefeated, but the projected low-scoring battle (over/under 40) should be a tight one. (Getty)
NFL Week 5 Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread