Welcome to Week 11, otherwise known as the week of lopsided matchups. Of the 14 games on the NFL slate, eight have a spread of at least six points, per OddsShark. So, while last week was one of the most entertaining of the season (there were 10 games decided by a touchdown or less, and that includes every single game that started at 4 p.m. ET Sunday or later), this one could be the opposite. Nevertheless, that doesn't make picking games against the spread any easier. In fact, in many cases it becomes tougher, as games that are expected to blowouts have a better chance of being decided by late, garbage-time touchdowns. I'm here to help, though, and you can click through the gallery for my favorite Week 11 picks against the spread. Note that all lines are courtesy of OddsShark and are updated as of Tuesday, November 15. (Getty)
Dallas Cowboys
Opponent: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Line: DAL (-7)
Not only are the Cowboys 8-1 overall, but they're undefeated (8-0-1) against the spread. The Ravens, meanwhile, are 2-4 outside their division, 0-2 against the NFC and 1-3 against the spread on the road. The best way for an underdog to keep a game close is by controlling time of possession with a strong running game and dominant defense. Unfortunately for the Ravens, the running game is averaging 2.78 yards per carry over the last four games, the O-line is without its two starting guards, and the defense figures to have trouble slowing down a Cowboys attack that is crushing opponents in the trenches and has scored 28 points in five straight. (Getty)
Green Bay Packers
Opponent: at Washington Redskins
Line: GB (+2.5)
It's hard to trust the Packers. They're 1-3 on the road, the defense just gave up 47 points to the Titans (and it probably could have been 65 if Tennessee didn't let its foot off the gas around halftime), the wide receivers struggle to create separation, and Mike McCarthy basically benched Ty Montgomery, someone who had provided a unique spark to the offense, for James Starks, an unexciting option coming off an injury, last week. But for whatever reason, the Pack tend to play better in the national spotlight--they're last two wins have come on Sunday Night Football and Thursday Night Football--and this game is on Sunday Night Football. Also, I trust Aaron Rodgers getting 2.5 points more than I trust Kirk Cousins. (Getty)
Oakland Raiders
Opponent: vs. Houston Texans (in Mexico City)
Line: OAK (-6)
The game is in Mexico City, which has an altitude more than 2,000 feet higher than that of Denver's, so this could be fairly unpredictable. However, if we're looking strictly at the matchup, Oakland's biggest weakness is its pass defense, but Houston doesn't exactly have the quarterback to exploit that weakness, as Brock Osweiler ranks 29th in completion percentage (58.6), 31st in QB rating (74.1) and dead last in yards per pass attempt (5.6). Again, the location makes me a bit apprehensive, but in a vacuum at a neutral site, the Raiders are certainly a touchdown better than the Texans this year. (Getty)
Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: at Minnesota Vikings
Line: ARI (Pick 'Em)
The Vikings are a mess right now. Losers of four straight, they've scored 14.0 points per game and averaged a miserable 4.56 yards per play during that stretch. It's hard to beat anyone when you have an offense performing like that, and to make matters worse this week, their most dangerous weapon, Stefon Diggs, has to go up against Patrick Peterson and a Cardinals defense that is fourth in the NFL against the pass (6.3 yards per pass allowed). Minnesota's defense will always keep the Vikes close, but this is a pick 'em, and I trust the team with the better running game, better quarterback and better offensive line to get the win. (Getty)
Detroit Lions
Opponent: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Line: DET (-6.5)
I always like teams that are coming off a bye and are at home, and I like them even more when they're going up against Blake Bortles, who has been painfully bad this season. The Lions have yet to win a game by more than 6.5 points this season, but I think that changes this week. (Getty)
NFL Week 11 Predictions: Best Picks Against the Spread