As we approach the conclusion of the NFL regular season, the days get colder, the weather gets worse and the projected totals get lower, which is bad news for fantasy football and DFS purposes. Of the 13 games on the main Sunday slate for Week 15, six have an over/under that is less than 42 points, meaning there are a lot of potential minefields to avoid when filling out your lineup. That said, there are still three contests--New Orleans at Arizona, San Francisco at Atlanta, and Oakland at San Diego--that have projected totals right around the 50-point mark and boast plenty of scoring potential. That stark contrast--almost every game is anticipated to be either a low-scoring defensive battle or a shootout, with very little in between--is going to make for very interesting DFS decisions, and my particular strategy this week is going to look a little different. You can click through the gallery for my favorite Week 15 DraftKings lineup, or you can click here for more NFL DFS analysis and advice. (Getty)
QB: Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos
Opponent: vs. New England Patriots
Price: $5,200
Last week, four of the top five passers in terms of yards were Siemian, Joe Flacco, Carson Wentz and Sam Bradford. The week before that, Flacco had the most DraftKings points, and Brock Osweiler turned in a Top-10 week. Before that, Colin Kaepernick was the top DraftKings scorer, while Siemian, Ryan Tannehill and Matt Barkley joined him in the Top 10. In other words, there is a lot of unpredictability at this position, so I'm content going the low-priced route, especially when eight of the top nine priced QB's are on the road. Siemian is averaging 40.0 pass attempts over his last five games, throwing for 303.8 yards per contest with a 8:5 TD:INT during that stretch, and if there is one game where he would be projected to continue that massive, fantasy-friendly volume, it's this one. The Pats can score points in a hurry, and their defense is one-sided, ranking second against the run and 27th against the pass, per Football Outsiders. (Getty)
RB: David Johnson, Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: vs. New Orleans Saints
Price: $10,100
Johnson had a disappointing performance last week and still finished with 25 touches, five receptions, 121 yards from scrimmage and 18.1 DraftKings points. He was averaging an absurd 32.11 DraftKings points in the previous eight games, and he should get right back on track in this perfect matchup. The Cardinals are home favorites against a shaky defense in what is projected as the highest-scoring game of the week, and the absence of Michael Floyd could open up even more work for DJ in the passing game. (Getty)
RB: Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers
Opponent: at Cincinnati Bengals
Price: $9,800
With 1,616 yards from scrimmage on the year, it's easy to forget Bell missed the first three games of the season. He is averaging a mind-boggling 28.5 touches, 6.7 receptions, 161.6 yards from scrimmage and 28.7 DraftKings points per game, and as we saw last week, snow (there is potential for flurries in Cincinnati) only seems to enhance his super-powers. He and David Johnson are head-and-shoulders above everyone else in PPR (DraftKings) formats, and with the amount of value plays at QB and WR that have been paying off recently, I have no issue spending almost 40 percent of my salary on the elite RB duo. (Getty)
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Opponent: vs. New England Patriots
Price: $6,300
Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders have been nearly identical in terms of production this season, so either makes sense in a stack with Siemian. Thomas is $300 cheaper and has received slightly more consistent targets as of late, tallying less than 10 just once over the last eight games, so I'll go with him. (Getty)
WR: Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent: at Houston Texans
Price: $4,400
Robinson has been disastrous this season, but his price finally reflects that. The risk he carries is somewhat negated at just $1,400 over the minimum, and the matchup is right for him to hit his upside. He burned this Texans defense for 107 yards and a touchdown in Week 10, and they have proceeded to allow a 100-yard receiver in every game since. After having to go up against Denver and Minnesota's elite secondaries the last two weeks, A-Rob is a sneaky regression candidate this week. (Getty)
WR: J.J. Nelson, Arizona Cardinals
Opponent: vs. New Orleans Saints
Price: $3,900
Nelson is shooting 100 percent in the last two games, turning all three of his touches (two receptions, one carry) into touchdowns. You obviously can't bet on that kind of efficiency moving forward, but you can bet on the elite speedster seeing more targets with Michael Floyd now out of the picture. Floyd's last game playing under 50 percent of the snaps (Week 8) resulted in 12 targets, eight receptions, 79 yards and two touchdowns for Nelson, and even if he doesn't see that kind of volume, he's someone who can clearly hit a home run--that's both a basketball and a baseball reference--any time he touches the ball. In a prime matchup against the Saints, he carries immense upside, health (knee, questionable) permitting. (Getty)
TE: Trey Burton, Philadelphia Eagles
Opponent: at Baltimore Ravens
Price: $2,500
The options at tight end quickly drop off, so if you aren't going with one of the higher-priced options, I suggest going ultra cheap. Burton, who is minimum priced, has tallied 12 receptions and 118 yards on a whopping 19 targets the last two weeks, and he could continue to serve as a reliable possession receiver if Darren Sproles (concussion) sits out. Jermaine Gresham is another nice value option at $2,500, but I'll opt not to go with three Cardinals players. (Getty)
FLEX: Tevin Coleman, Atlanta Falcons
Opponent: vs. San Francisco 49ers
Price: $5,000
The 49ers, who are last in almost every major rushing defense stat, have given up 182.0 yards from scrimmage per game and 22 total touchdowns to running backs this season. Seemingly every back who gets even a decent workload goes off against the 'Niners, so there is plenty of room for both Coleman and Devonta Freeman to have big days on Sunday. (Getty)
DEF: Oakland Raiders
Opponent: at San Diego Chargers
Price: $2,700
Though they tend to give up lots of points and yards, the Raiders have tallied multiple takeaways in five straight games, averaging a solid 8.4 DraftKings points per contest over that stretch. In Week 15, their strength aligns perfectly with San Diego's weakness, as Philip Rivers has committed 12 turnovers over the last four games and could be forced to throw even more with Melvin Gordon out. (Getty)
DraftKings Week 15 NFL Lineup Picks, Advice & Analysis