After a Wild Card round that was littered with unsurprising--and mostly boring--blowouts, the Divisional round should offer NFL fans much more entertainment. OK, so the Patriots vs. Texans clash (New England favored by 15) is about as lopsided a matchup as you'll see this late in the postseason, but the other three games are full of intrigue. The Seahawks vs. Falcons and Steelers vs. Chiefs meetings are both rematches that were won by the lower seed during the regular season, while the Packers vs. Cowboys matchup features arguably the hottest team in the NFL against the NFC's top seed. In fact, you could make a legitimate case that Green Bay and Dallas are two of the three best teams in the NFL at this moment. It's going to be a thrilling weekend of football, and you can click through the gallery for my picks against the spread. You can also read here for more betting article and picks. (Getty)
Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons
Line: Falcons (-4.5)
Pick Against the Spread: Seahawks (+4.5)
For the Seahawks, it's not about getting off to a hot start so much as getting off to a not-cataclysmic start. In the Seahawks' three Divisional round road games under Pete Carroll, they have been out-scored an absurd 72-0(!) in the first half, ultimately making comebacks of varying degrees but losing all three contests. And when you consider how they've fared on the road this season--15.88 points per game--it wouldn't be all that surprising if that trend continues. That said, the Seahawks have something important going for them: the running game. After struggling to run the ball for most of the year, the 'Hawks got Thomas Rawls going for 161 yards last week, and could get explosive rookie C.J. Prosise back in the mix this week. The Hawks are a completely different team when they're able to run the ball effectively, and against a Falcons defense that ranked 29th in Football Outsiders run defense efficiency ratings, Seattle will be able to do enough to at least cover. (Getty)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots
Line: Patriots (-15)
Pick Against the Spread: Patriots (-15)
Fifteen points is a lot, especially in a playoff game, but the Patriots beat the Texans by 27 with a third-round rookie under center back in Week 3, so they can certainly repeat that feat with arguably the best quarterback of all-time at the helm. If the Texans are going to keep this thing close, it'll be on the shoulders of the defense (fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed) and the running game. It's not out of the question they keep it within two touchdowns, but at the end of the day, I'm not going to pick against Bill Belichick with an extra week of preparation at home against a quarterback that finished the regular season with more interceptions than passing touchdowns. I hate betting these kind of games because garbage time can ultimately be the deciding factor, but if I have to choose, I'm going with the Patriots. (Getty)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Line: Chiefs (-1)
Pick Against the Spread: Chiefs (-1)
The Steelers bulldozed the Chiefs by 29 points back in Week 4, but that one was at Heinz Field. On the road this year, Ben Roethlisberger threw for just 238.0 yards per game and an ugly 9:8 TD:INT ratio, while the Steelers averaged just 21.62 points per contest (compared to 28.25 at home). The Chiefs, meanwhile, allowed just 15.75 points per game at Arrowhead and have the defensive personnel to at least slow down Pittsburgh's dangerous attack. This is going to be a close one, as the spread suggests, but the stark home/road splits for each team compels me to side with the Chiefs. (Getty)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Line: Cowboys (-4.5)
Pick Against the Spread: Packers (+4.5)
The Cowboys are at home and have the superior running game and defense, while the Packers could be without Jordy Nelson, but I'm not picking against Aaron Rodgers right now. The man is completing 68.7 percent of his passes for 297.5 yards per contest, 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions over a ridiculous current eight-game stretch. In other words, somebody better call the fire department! He just torched the Giants, owners of one of the best secondaries in the NFL, so there's little doubt he can keep the Packers close in this one. (Getty)
NFL Divisional Round Odds & Picks Against the Spread