With the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 on the horizon, March Madness is entering its final stages with just a couple more weeks for fans to watch some of the top prospects in anticipation of the 2017 NBA Draft. Top prospects like Washington’s Markelle Fultz and NC State’s Dennis Smith Jr. have not been able to use the NCAA tournament to help their draft stock with their teams missing the tournament. Duke’s Jayson Tatum and Florida State’s Jonathan Isaac both played two games in the tournament before both teams were upset. UCLA’s Lonzo Ball, Kansas’ Josh Jackson, Arizona’s Lauri Markkanen, Kentucky’s Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox are some of the top prospects whose team made it through to the second weekend. The UCLA-Kentucky matchup features as many as six players projected to make the first round of the NBA Draft including three players in our top ten.
You will find our latest mock draft has a new prediction for the number one pick. Ball has an opportunity to continue gaining ground on Fultz with a deep run in the NCAA tournament. As it stands now, Ball has a greater body of work with fewer question marks than Fultz. UCLA was 15-17 last season without Ball, and the addition of Ball is a big reason UCLA has made a deep tournament run. Ball fits in perfectly on a team like the Celtics that already has key pieces in place. The following mock draft is based on players expected to enter the draft. The majority of top players will begin declaring at the conclusion of March Madness. The draft order is based on the NBA standings as of March 23. Click the arrow on the right side of the above image to see Heavy's latest mock draft for the top ten picks. (Getty)
No. 10 Dallas Mavericks: PG Dennis Smith Jr.
School: NC State
Position: Point Guard
Size: 6'3"/195 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 18.1 ppg, 6.2 apg, 4.6 rpg, .455 FG%, .359 3P%
Outlook: Smith trailed off at the end of the season. NC State did not make the NCAA tournament so Smith is not able to bounce back. He will have to wait until the pre-draft process to try to win teams back in the interview room and in private workouts. Smith showed enough flashes this season to warrant a top pick but there are questions about his shooting along with his ability to win. If you put on the tape of the games where he is at his best, he looks like a top-five pick. Smith is one of the most interesting prospects to see what NBA teams do with him in June. Mark Cuban and the Mavs would be happy to see him fall to ten. (Getty)
No. 9 Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans): SF Jonathan Isaac
School: Florida State
Position: Small Forward
Size: 6'10"/210 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 12.0 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, .508 FG%, .348 3P%
Outlook: Isaac was being mentioned as a top-five pick in the fall. After seeing him in person for both of his tournament games, there are other players a bit more polished than he is at this stage in his career. Isaac can fill up the stat sheet but is often passive on offense. He deferred to some of the other talented players on the Seminoles roster, and it is unclear whether he can develop into a dominant offensive player. His best tournament game came against Florida Gulf Coast in the opening round. Isaac finished with 17 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. He will not fall too far in the draft as a team will take a chance on his potential. However, there are other freshman players that have a better body of work and still have potential. Isaac would be another nice building block for a rebuilding Kings team. (Getty)
No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves: G/F Miles Bridges
School: Michigan State
Position: Forward/Guard
Size: 6'7"/230 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 16.9 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.5 bpg, .486 FG%, .389 3P%
Outlook: The T-Wolves have a roster full of young talent. Minnesota's biggest need is to add another big man, but this draft class is not deep at the position. Bridges gives them a player that can play stretch-four at times if Minnesota decides to go small. While Michigan State was not able to make a deep tournament run, Bridges had a good March Madness. He had 18 points and nine rebounds in the Spartans opening round contest against Miami. Bridges had 22 points and eight rebounds against Kansas in their Round of 32 game. (Getty)
No. 7 Sacramento Kings: PF Lauri Markkanen
School: Arizona
Position: Power Forward
Size: 7'0"/230 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 15.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, .496 FG%, .433 3P%
Outlook: Sacramento has big men that are emerging, but Markkanen's talent will be difficult for the Kings to pass up. Markkanen continues to show his scoring ability with 20 and 16 points in Arizona's first two games. Teams will like his 11 rebounds he grabbed in Arizona's second round game against St. Mary's. He needs to continue to show more rebounding and defensive ability. Even if those aspects do not improve, his phenomenal shooting ability will give him a spot on an NBA floor day one, but he will need to improve the other aspects of his game to push him into star territory. More tournament games for Arizona could only help Markkanen's draft stock. (Getty)
No. 6 New York Knicks: SG Malik Monk
School: Kentucky
Position: Shooting Guard
Size: 6'3"/200 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 20 ppg, 2.4 apg, 2.5 rpg, 1.0 spg, .450 FG%, .393 3P%
Outlook: It has not been a great start to the tournament for Monk. He shot 30 percent or less in Kentucky's first two tournament games. This has been the challenge in evaluating Monk. His play varies from game to game and is one of the most inconsistent players in the draft. The upside is his good is really good which is why he has the potential to be a top-five pick. Monk still has time to turn his play around in the tournament. Monk is battling a shooting slump but has shown a propensity to drain shots all over the court when he is at his best. Monk would be a great fit at Madison Square Garden. (Getty)
The season has ended and the projected NBA draft order has been set. Fans know that is only the beginning of the process as it does not guarantee a particular spot but a bad record increases your odds of landing the number one pick. The Boston Celtics, through the Brooklyn Nets, have a 25 percent chance of landing the top selection. This means even as the team with the most ping-pong balls, there is a 75 percent probability they do not get the number one pick. This is what makes the "tanking" philosophy so volatile is the results are not guaranteed.
Proponents point to the Philadelphia 76ers as tanking gone right, but could just as easily look at the Orlando Magic who have been stuck in neutral thanks in part to some unfortunate luck in the lottery. Over the years, the Magic missed out on players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins among others by not winning the lottery. Former GM Rob Hennigan made his fair share of bad moves but there is a chance he could still have his job if the Magic were able to win the NBA lottery in one of his five years as general manager. Instead, the Magic had to fire Hennigan who was never able to turn the corner for a franchise that was in a constant state of rebuilding under his watch. NBA general managers that are looking to rebuild their teams need a combination of great talent evaluation in addition to some good fortune in the lottery to pull off a successful rebuild. For this mock draft, Heavy simulated the lottery , and the Suns were the lucky winners. Meanwhile, the Celtics were not as fortunate dropping all the way down to fourth. Fans can go to Tankathon to see what the order ends up being when you simulate the lottery. Click the arrow on the right side of the page to see Heavy's latest mock draft with a draft order based on a simulated lottery. (Getty)
No. 4 Boston Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum
School: Duke
Position: Small Forward
Size: 6'8"/205 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 16.8 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.3 spg, 1.3 bpg. .452 FG%, .342 3P%
Outlook: For months, we have assumed the Celtics will win the lottery given the Nets were the leader in the clubhouse to finish with the worst record. Brooklyn did their part by giving the Celtics the best chance to win the lottery at 25 percent odds. While they do have the best odds, that leaves a 75 percent probability Boston will land another pick. Celtics fans should prepare themselves to not win the lottery even though they stand the best chance. Tatum gives Boston a legit scoring option to take the pressure off Isaiah Thomas. The Celtics could also use his rebounding ability. Don't count out Malik Monk from being considered by the Celtics if they end up falling farther than they expect in the lottery. (Getty)
No. 3 Orlando Magic: SF/SG Josh Jackson
School: Kansas
Position: Small Forward/Shooting Guard
Size: 6'8"/207 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 16.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 3.0 apg, .513 FG%, .378 3P%
Outlook: The Magic were the biggest beneficiaries from our simulation moving up from the five spot. That said, I'm not convinced there is a massive gap between Jackson and players like Jayson Tatum and De'Aaron Fox. Both of those players would still be in play even if the Magic move up in the lottery. Jackson gives the Magic a competitive, well-rounded player who can contribute immediately to the Magic's offensive struggles. Jackson also has the defensive intensity that Frank Vogel will love. This draft pick will depend a lot on who the Magic bring in as the next general manager.to take over for a fired Rob Hennigan. As with most teams that make unsuccessful hires, look for the Magic to try to compensate by going in the opposite direction and hiring an experienced GM. (Getty)
No. 1 Phoenix Suns: PG Markelle Fultz
School: Washington
Position: Point Guard
Size: 6'4"/195 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 23.2 ppg, 5.9 apg, 5.7 rpg, 1.6 spg, 1.2 bpg, .476 FG%, .413 3P%
Outlook: The Suns move up one spot to win the lottery in our simulation. Fultz fits in the best for Phoenix as he has more position flexibility than Lonzo Ball. As Sports Illustrated's Andrew Sharp points out, there is a temptation to paint Fultz as the anti-Lonzo Ball as the draft approaches. While Ball has been making his media rounds since the college basketball season ended, Fultz has been laying low. Fultz seems okay with a friendly rivalry between the two guards. "He's going to be a great guard in the league," Fultz told Sports Illustrated. “He's going to be [playing] my position, so... if he happens to be the point guard I'm going against, then yeah, I want to get him out the way." Fultz is not without his questions, primarily why he was not able to help Washington win more games along with his decision to shut things down with an injury at the end of the season. (Getty)
No. 1 Boston Celtics (via Nets): PG Lonzo Ball
School: UCLA
Position: Point Guard
Size: 6'6"/190 pounds
Class: Freshman
2016-17 Stats: 14.7 ppg, 7.6 apg, 6.1 rpg, .556 FG%, .420 3P%
Outlook: There is a new number one in my predictions. Ball has lived up to his potential over the last month of the season. He nearly recorded a triple-double to help UCLA defeat Cincinnati in the Round of 32 to advance to the Sweet 16. Ball finished with 18 points, nine assists and seven rebounds in the Bruins' victory. Unlike Markelle Fultz, he has the opportunity to improve his stock even more if UCLA can continue winning. Ball will square off with fellow top-10 prospect De'Aaron Fox on Friday night. NBA teams will have a decision to make about Ball's shot, but he is off to a red-hot March Madness shooting 60 percent from behind the three-point line in the first two games of the tournament. Ball fits in nicely with the pieces the Celtics already have in place. It is the perfect situation for Ball to thrive at the next level. (Getty)
NBA Mock Draft 2017: Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson & Top Picks