Sure, predicting the first- and second-round upsets is always fun--and we've got a handful of sleepers to consider this year--but if you're going to win your NCAA tournament bracket pool, you're going to need to nail your Final Four picks.
It certainly depends on the format and scoring system of your particular pool, but if you correctly predict even two or three teams in the national semifinals--especially if one of those isn't a chalk pick--then you'll likely be in excellent position in your pool. Before we get to this year's picks, let's take a little look at recent history and how it may assist you in filling out your bracket.
You should include at least one No. 1 seed in your Final Four. Over the last 11 tournaments, only twice have all four seeds failed to make it out of their region (2006: No. 3 Florida, No. 2 UCLA, No. 4 LSU and No. 11 George Mason; and 2011: No. 3 UConn, No. 8 Butler, No. 4 Kentucky, No. 11 VCU).
At the same time, you probably don't want to have any more than two No. 1 seeds making it to Phoenix. Over that same 11-year span, only four times (two in 2007, four in 2008, two in 2009, two in 2012) have two or more top seeds advanced to the Final Four in the same tournament. Five tournaments in the last 11 years--and four tournaments in the last five years--have featured exactly one No. 1 seed.
Also, don't be afraid to be bold. In the last four tournaments, there have been five teams seeded No. 7 or worse who have advanced to the Final Four. It's not a trend that will likely continue every year, but it's a sign of the growing parity in college basketball.
With all of that in mind, you can click through the gallery for my 2017 Final Four predictions. (Getty)
No. 1 North Carolina
Region: South
Road to Final Four (Assuming high seeds advance): No. 16 Texas Southern, No. 8 Arkansas, No. 4 Butler, No. 2 Kentucky
The loss in the ACC tournament doesn't bother me, as the Heels appeared to have Duke in control before a fourth foul to point guard Joel Berry with 15 minutes left in the second half completely changed the game. Considering Berry has committed four-plus fouls in just four games this season, that's not something you should worry about.
When it comes down to it, the Heels don't have any discernible weaknesses. That have arguably the best frontcourt in the nation (Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, Tony Bradley and Luke Maye), which allows them to grab 42.0 percent of their own misses (most in the country), they can shoot it (Berry and Justin Jackson each hit more than two threes per game), and they have defended much better as of late.
Several players on this squad played key roles in last year's run to the national title game, and it wouldn't at all be surprising if the Heels found themselves back there. (Getty)
No. 1 Gonzaga
Region: West
Road to Final Four (Assuming high seeds advance): No. 16 South Dakota State, No. 8 Northwestern, No. 4 West Virginia, No. 2 Arizona
The argument against Gonzaga is always the same. They play in a weak conference. If they were in the ACC or Big 12, they would go .500 or worse. They always choke in the NCAA tournament. Blah blah blah.
Say what you want about the WCC, but the claims of Gonzaga being overrated are lazy and unsubstantiated. Ignore the conference and simply look at the players and the makeup of the team. Nigel Williams-Goss, a former Pac-12 star and one of the smartest floor generals in college basketball, is averaging 16.9 points, 4.8 assists and just 2.1 turnovers per contest. Przemek Karnowski combines unmovable size (7-foot-1, 288 pounds) with a soft touch and deft passing. Zach Collins, who comes off the bench, has an undeniable NBA future. Jordan Mathews, another guy who put up numbers in the Pac-12, and Josh Perkins provide outside shooting. Put it all together, and they're second in the nation in effective field-goal percentage and first in defensive effective field-goal percentage.
Advance statistics are on Gonzaga's side, as well. Not only do they rank 10th in Kem Pomeroy's adjusted offensive efficiency, but they are second in defensive efficiency, making this easily the best team of Mark Few's tenure in that regard. Overall, they rank first nationally in both Pomeroy's and Jeff Sagarin's advanced models.
Oh, and that whole thing about choking in the Big Dance? They've been upset just twice in the last decade, once by a guy named Steph Curry, and once by a red-hot Wichita State team that ultimately went to the Final Four.
Still worried about the conference they play in? Florida, Iowa State and Arizona, all teams that lost to the Zags on a neutral court, would probably tell you otherwise. Gonzaga is legit. (Getty)
No. 2 Louisville
Region: Midwest
Road to Final Four (Assuming high seeds advance): No. 15 Jacksonville State, No. 7 Michigan, No. 3 Oregon, No. 1 Kansas
Louisville should handle Jacksonville State, then they have the defense to cause problems for either Michigan or Oklahoma, who are both elite offensively. After that, a potential matchup with Oregon in the Sweet 16 looks a lot less daunting now that the Ducks lost rim protector Chris Boucher.
A potential matchup against Kansas in the Elite 8 is a tossup, but Louisville has the backcourt in Quentin Snider and Donovan Mitchell to counter Frank Mason, while Kansas' occasional defensive lapses (they rank just 62nd in defensive effective field-goal percentage and gave up 85 points in a Big 12 tournament loss to TCU) have me slightly shying away from the Jayhawks. (Getty)
No. 6 SMU
Region: East
Road to Final Four (Assuming high seeds advance): No. 11 Providence/USC, No. 3 Baylor, No. 2 Duke, No. 1 Villanova
A region that includes the overall No. 1 Villanova and a Duke team that just ran through the tournament for the most difficult conference in America is obviously a stacked one, but SMU is a sneaky sleeper pick that will help you differentiate your bracket.
With 16 wins in a row, including a 15-point thumping of a good Cincinnati team in the AAC tournament championship, the Mustangs enter the tournament red-hot. Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye is capable of taking over any game (and will have plenty of motivation in a potential Elite 8 matchup against the Blue Devils), Shake Milton is an underrated point guard, and SMU can light it up from deep with three players who hit at least 1.7 threes per game at a 42.0 percent clip or better.
Potentially having to get past both Duke and Villanova is an unenviable task, but SMU is hardly a major underdog here. The Mustangs, who are efficient on both sides of the basketball (Top 35 nationally in both offensive and defensive effective field-goal percentage), are 11th in the country in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency rankings. They may not get a lot of attention, but they belong in the discussion of best teams in the country. (Getty)
NCAA Tournament Predictions 2017: Final Four Picks