After a span that saw Top-10 golfers win five tournaments in a row, Adam Hadwin returned some parity to the PGA Tour last week, holding off Patrick Cantlay, Jim Herman and Dominic Bozzelli to take down the Valspar Championship for the first victory of his career. Now, golfers head a couple hours east to Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Before we get to the annual tournament honoring one of the game's all-time legends, a quick look back at our DraftKings lineup from last week: The good news is that we had five of six make the cut, but the bad news is Jason Dufner (tied for 11th) was the highest finisher in our lineup. Throw in Graham DeLaet, Matt Kuchar and Kyle Stanley, who all finished inside the Top 30, and it was probably enough for cash games, but certainly came up short in tournaments.
Now back to the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Though it has played out slightly harder than the average course thanks to an array of bunkers and water hazards, there is room to go low at the 7,419-yard Par 72. The last two winners (Matt Every in 2015, Jason Day in 2016) have approached 20-under, while a total of 27 players have been double-digits under par during those two tournaments. With favorable weather conditions, we should see a bunch of low scores again this year.
With all of that in mind, you can click through the gallery for my optimal DraftKings lineup picks, and you can click here for even more DFS analysis for Bay Hill. (Getty)
Jason Day
Price: $10,600
With the way Rory McIlroy looked in his return at the WGC-Mexico two weeks ago, and with the way Henrik Stenson has churned out Top-10's at this event, there's a good chance Day is very lightly owned. It's certainly a risky pick, as the Aussie hasn't played since a T64 at the Genesis Open a month ago, but with most people likely shying away from him, he makes a lot of sense for tournament and GPP formats. He's going to be well rested, and he went wire-to-wire here last year, so he's clearly capable of dominating. (Getty)
Rickie Fowler
Price: $9,900
While fading both McIlroy ($12,000) and Stenson ($11,500) is potentially dangerous, it allows to afford a pair of Top-10 studs in Day and Fowler. The latter enters in red-hot form, having finished fourth, first and 16th in his last three starts. Ranked sixth on Tour in strokes gained approaching the green, 15th in strokes gained via putting, fifth in strokes gained tee to green and second in strokes gained overall, he feels like a bit of a steal under $10,000, even in a fairly strong field. (Getty)
Thomas Pieters
Price: $8,700
There are three guys in this price range who, in my opinion, have a really strong chance to win this thing: Tyrrell Hatton ($9,100), Paul Casey ($8,800) and Pieters. Ultimately, I'll go with the young Belgian star not only because he has a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last three starts, but because his statistical profile grades out really well for this event. He ranks first on Tour in strokes gained approaching the green and ninth in strokes gained putting, which unsurprisingly helps put him at No. 11 in birdie or better percentage. If conditions are favorable, he has the game to absolutely crush this course. (Getty)
Wesley Bryan
Price: $7,100
Going with three of the 11 most expensive options is possible because there's lots of intriguing value on the board this week. That starts with Bryan, who was brutal to start the year but has now put together an amazing three Top-10 finishes in a row and is playing as well as anyone on Tour.
Additionally, strokes gained around the green is typically an important stat at Bay Hill. Last year, Jason Day and Kevin Chappell finished 1-2 in that stat and 1-2 in the tournament. In 2015, Morgan Hoffmann, Kevin Na, Ben Martin and Matt Jones, who finished 1 through 4 in the stat, all finished inside the Top 6 in the tournament. That's promising for Bryan, who ranks 21st on Tour in the crucial stat and has been 15th and sixth in his last two tournaments. (Getty)
Charles Howell III
Price: $6,900
Howell finished just 49th last week, but it did run his consecutive cuts made streak to 10, while has has also made the cut at Bay Hill in each of the last eight years. Simply getting to the weekend may not have been enough at last week's price of $9,400, but now Howell, who has seven Top-15's on the year, has for some reason dropped to $6,900, he represents undoubtedly good value. (Getty)
Anirban Lahiri
Price: $6,700
It would be better if he didn't just play in India last week, but Lahiri is an intriguing sleeper pick. Though he doesn't have any course history here, he enters with three Top-11 finishes in his last four worldwide starts (including a T11 at the Honda Classic), and he ranks fourth on Tour in birdie or better percentage, making him the perfect high-upside pick. (Getty)
DraftKings PGA Lineup: Arnold Palmer Invitational 2017 Optimal Picks