Most NBA mock drafts leave out one very crucial part of the draft process: The lottery. While it certainly makes sense to simply use the order of the current NBA standings--that's what I did in my most recent projections--I figured we could get rid of the monotony by simulating the lottery for my newest mock draft.
So, with simulations courtesy of Tankathon.com, here's a look at the draft order we'll be using for the Top 14 picks: Philadelphia, Orlando, Brooklyn (pick goes to Boston), Phoenix, Los Angeles (pick goes to Philly), New York, Minnesota, Sacramento, Dallas, New Orleans (pick goes to Sacramento), Detroit, Charlotte, Denver, Miami.
As is immediately noticeable to Lakers fans, the ping-pong balls are especially vital this year. The Lake Show, who have suddenly forgotten how to tank and now have "only" the third-worst record in the NBA after two wins in a row, are basically a 50-50 shot to keep their pick. If the lottery puts them in the Top 3 (a 46.9 percent chance, per Tankathon), they'll have a chance at a franchise-changer in Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball or Josh Jackson. If the lottery isn't so kind, as is the case in this simulation, their pick goes to the 76ers, who also strike gold with the No. 1 overall selection in this particular scenario.
Ultimately, even with less than a week left in the regular season, there are still a handful of different ways for the draft to be shaken up, but it's still always intriguing to see how those variables may alter the scope of the league. With that in mind, you can click through the gallery for my first-round projections based off the simulated lottery. (Getty)
1. Philadelphia 76ers: Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington
Age: 18 (May 29, 1998)
Size: 6-foot-4, 195 pounds
The Sixers, in their current position, have just a 10.4 percent chance at the ping-poll balls giving them the No. 1 overall pick, so this is unlikely, but it sure would make things interesting. Fultz and Lonzo Ball, both point guards, are considered the top two overall prospects, but the Sixers are expected to hand the keys to the offense to point-forward Ben Simmons next year.
Ultimately, though, Fultz is versatile enough that he can fill it up while playing off the ball, and when it comes down to it, Philly would take the best talent available rather than worrying about positions. Besides, having two ball-handlers in Fultz and Simmons, surrounded by guys like Dario Saric, Robert Covington and Joel Embiid, would make the Sixers incredibly fun to watch. (Getty)
2. Orlando Magic: Josh Jackson, SF, Kansas
Age: 20 (February 10, 1997)
Size: 6-foot-8, 207 pounds
This ultimately depends on how the Magic view Elfrid Payton, who has been inconsistent at times but is also only 22 years old and coming a career-year in terms of PER (17.3), true-shooting percentage (.521), assist percentage (35.1), turnover percentage (14.9) and offensive rating (108). His excellent play down the stretch--14.2 points, 7.7 rebounds and 8.8 assists over the last 18 games--should ultimately cement his role as the starting point guard going forward.
As such, Jackson gets the nod here. Not only is he a potential game-changer on the defensive end, but he has a versatile offensive game that consistently improved as his freshman year wore on. If he continues to get better from beyond the arc, he's going to be an all-around stud. (Getty)
3. Boston Celtics: Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Age: 19 (October 27, 1997)
Size: 6-foot-6, 190 pounds
Obviously not the lottery the Celtics are hoping to see, as they will have a 1-in-4 shot at getting the top pick. Still, Top 3 isn't so bad for one of the best teams in the NBA, and Ball is a tremendous talent with rare skills as a passer. You would have to wonder about how he fits with Isaiah Thomas, but once again, this is a case of targeting best overall player rather than position of need.
At the very least, Ball could share the court with IT part of the time and give the C's an elite distributor when the All-Star goes to the bench. Packaging this pick in a trade for a wing would also likely be a potential option. (Getty)
4. Phoenix Suns: Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke
Age: 19 (March 3, 1998)
Size: 6-foot-8, 205 pounds
Defense, schmeefense. The Suns would like to land Josh Jackson because of his potential to make a two-way impact, but Tatum is hardly a bad consolation prize. While he isn't likely to make the same kind of defensive impact as the Kansas star, he does possess a rare blend of length (6-foot-11 wingspan) and polished offensive game.
Put Tatum in a lineup that already includes Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker, TJ Warren and an ever-improving Marquese Chriss, and you have the makings for a frightening offensive squad. (Getty)
5. Philadelphia 76ers: Malik Monk, SG, Kentucky
Age: 19 (February 4, 1998)
Size: 6-foot-3, 200 pounds
This couldn't go any better for the Sixers. Not only do they get the top pick, but the get the pick of the Lakers, who drop outside of the Top 3. Trust the Process indeed.
After selecting Markelle Fultz No. 1, Philly adds Monk here. After rolling with T.J. McConnell and Gerald Henderson in the backcourt for much of 2016, suddenly Philly will have Ben Simmons and Fultz, with Monk--arguably the best scorer in this draft--coming off the bench as an instant-offense, sixth-man option. That's a massive upgrade for a team that ranks dead last in offensive rating. (Getty)
6. New York Knicks: De'Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky
Age: 19 (December 20, 1997)
Size: 6-foot-3, 187 pounds
It wouldn't be surprising if the Knicks went after a point guard in free agency, but considering their lack of depth at the position and Derrick Rose's status, it'll be hard to pass up on nabbing one here. Dennis Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina are both options, but Fox ultimately gets the nod after an electrifying NCAA tournament performance.
A quick-twitch athlete who can seemingly get to the rim at will, he would be in contention for a Top-3 pick if he would have been more consistent as a shooter. And while you can't just ignore the fact he shot 24.6 percent from deep, he did improve in that regard down the stretch, and the rest of his game is extremely enticing. (Getty)
7. Minnesota Timberwolves: Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State
Age: 19 (October 3, 1997)
Size: 6-foot-10, 210 pounds
He was never really the Alpha dog at Florida State, so some worry about him being "the guy" at the next level, but that wouldn't be a problem with this landing spot. He would be, at most, the No. 3 offensive option behind Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns, allowing him to develop without a ton of pressure. And giving him time to develop is important because, while a little bit raw, he's a 6-foot-10 small forward with a 7-foot-1 wingspan and a nice offensive game. If he isn't hurried too fast, he has the chance to be a special player on both ends of the court. (Getty)
8. Sacramento Kings: Dennis Smith Jr., PG, NC State
Age: 19 (November 25, 1997)
Size: 6-foot-3, 195 pounds
Smith's propensity to disappear for stretches is concerning, but the Kings, who are rebuilding and have a pair of Top 10 picks, can afford to take a risk. And really, he may not actually be much of a risk anyways. While there are worries about his mental game, his blend of quickness, explosive athleticism and fearlessness attacking the rim is going to make him a nightmare to guard. (Getty)
9: Dallas Mavericks: Frank Ntilikina, PG, France
Age: 18 (July 28, 1998)
Size: 6-foot-5, 170 pounds
Not only is Ntilikina one of the youngest players in the draft, but he also looks like one of the more safer prospects, as he can play both of the guard positions, he has great size, and he is regarded as one of the better perimeter defenders in the class. That makes him the perfect fit for the Mavs, who are in need of a point guard who can contribute right away. (Getty)
10: Sacramento Kings: Lauri Markkanen, PF, Arizona
Age: 19 (May 22, 1997)
Size: 7-foot-0, 230 pounds
Most will agree that Markannen has some work to do in improving both his defense and his interior game, but once again, the rebuilding Kings can afford to go after projects with high upside. And that's exactly what Markannen is. While he may still need improvement in a couple areas of his game, he is ultimately a rare specimen as a 7-footer with one of the best outside strokes in this class. (Getty)
11. Detroit Pistons: Miles Bridges, SF/PF, Michigan State
12. Charlotte Hornets: Justin Jackson, SF, North Carolina
13. Denver Nuggets: Isaiah Hartenstein, PF, Germany
14. Miami Heat: Justin Patton, C, Creighton
15. Chicago Bulls: T.J. Leaf, PF, UCLA
16. Portland Trail Blazers: OG Anunoby, SF, Indiana
17. Indiana Pacers: Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga
18. Milwaukee Bucks: Jarrett Allen, C, Texas
19. Atlanta Hawks: John Collins, PF, Wake Forest
20. Portland Trail Blazers: Ivan Rabb, PF, California
21. Oklahoma City Thunder: Donovan Mitchell, SG, Louisville
22. Toronto Raptors: Rodions Kurucs, SF, Latvia
23. Brooklyn Nets: Harry Giles, PF, Duke
24. Orlando Magic: Luke Kennard, SG, Duke
25. Utah Jazz: Edmond Sumner, PG/SG, Xavier
26. Brooklyn Nets: Tyler Lydon, SF/PF, Syracuse
27. Portland Trail Blazers: Jawun Evans, PG, Oklahoma State
28. Los Angeles Lakers: Terrance Ferguson, SG, Adelaide
29. San Antonio Spurs: Jordan Bell, PF, Oregon
30. Utah Jazz: Bam Adebayo, C, Kentucky
NBA Mock Draft 2017: 1st-Round Projections With Simulated Lottery