Heavy has already walked you through the 2017 Kentucky Derby contenders. The real work is knowing which horses with long odds have a chance to make some noise at Churchill Downs. This year, this is even more important than ever with no heavy favorite. While Classic Empire is slightly favored in the odds, his injuries along with his refusal to practice at times during prep season makes him far from a sure bet. Saturday's race is wide open with most of the horses in the field having a chance to compete. There are several horses with double-digit odds that Heavy likes to do damage. While he just missed our rankings, State of Honor is a horse who has been running well at Churchill Downs during the practice runs and could be worth a flyer at 30-1 odds. Heavy breaks down the top horses with double-digit odds that have a good chance to compete in the 2017 Kentucky Derby. If you are a fan of choosing a horse based on an experienced jockey, Victor Espinoza and Mario Gutierrez both offer some value with both jockeys riding horses who are dark horses in Saturday's race. According to OddsShark, the two jockeys have accounted for four of the last five Derby winners. Click the arrow on the right side of the middle of the page to see Heavy's breakdown of the top sleepers and dark horses for the 2017 Kentucky Derby. (Getty)
No. 5 Irap
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Mario Gutierrez
Trainer: Doug O'Neil
Outlook: Irap is coming off a victory in the Blue Grass Stakes. It is difficult to find a better jockey-trainer combo than Irap. Trainer Doug O'Neil has won two of the last five Kentucky Derby races. Mario Gutierrez won the Kentucky Derby in 2012 with I'll Have Another and the 2016 race on Nyquist. The challenge for Irap is he does not have the top speed of some of the other horses. His best Beyer number is a 93 which is nine points less than favorite Classic Empire. While Irap won his last race, he was unsuccessful in his prior five races. With the Gutierrez-O'Neil combo, you cannot count out Irap, but he would need a lot of things to break his way during the race. (Getty)
No. 4 Tapwrit
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Jose Oritz
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Outlook: Tapwrit is coming off a poor showing at the Blue Grass Stakes where he finished fifth. The horse has a solid top 101 BRIS speed number. Todd Pletcher has the second-most starts in Kentucky Derby history with 43 and won the race in 2010. Prior to his dud at the Blue Grass, Tapwrit had won three out of four races. With 20-1 odds, Tapwrit could be worth a flyer given he has Pletcher's backing heading into Saturday's race. The horse was purchased for $1.2 million proving he comes from a great pedigree. The odds factor in his inconsistency, but it would not be a surprise to see him run well at Churchill Downs. (Getty)
No. 3 Gormley
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Outlook: If you are looking for a horse to overachieve based on an experienced jockey, look no further than Gormley. Victor Espinoza has three Kentucky Derby victories: War Emblem (2002), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015). That's a nice pedigree for 15-1 odds. Gormley's best BRIS Speed number was 102 in the Sham. Gormley has won four of his last six races including his last outing at the Santa Anita Derby in April. (Getty)
No. 2 J Boys Echo
Odds: 20-1
Jockey: Robby Albarado
Trainer: Dale Romans
Outlook: Looking to take a flyer on a horse that has some speed? Go with J Boys Echo. His top BRIS speed number of 104 at the Gotham is the highest of any horse in the field. With a particularly slow field, it is easy to envision a scenario where J Boys Echo uses his speed to wind up in the Winner's Circle. So why the long odds? He followed up his Gotham victory with a disappointing 4th place finish at the Blue Grass. Trainer Dale Romans had three horses in last year's Derby (Unbridled Outlaw, Cherry Wine and Brody's Cause), so he brings some experience to the table this year to compliment his speedster of a horse. (Getty)
No. 1 Hence
Odds: 15-1
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Outlook: Hence's Derby odds are down for several reasons. He had a disappointing performance two races ago at the Southwest Stakes where he finished 7th. While his victory in the Sunland Derby sent him through to Churchill Downs, it is not a major prep race like the Florida or Arkansas Derby. So why is Hence on the list? The horse has great speed, as much as any horse in the field. According to Horse Racing Nation, his fastest speed figures are 97 (Beyer), 103 (BRIS Speed Ratings) and 108 (Timeform US). His fastest Beyer time puts him as the third fastest horse along with two other horses. His BRIS Speed Ratings of 103 is the second fastest time among horses by that measurement. It also helps that Hence is coming off his fastest performance. Hence has an experienced trainer in Steve Asmussen who is looking for his first Derby victory but has had success at Churchill Downs. (Getty)
Kentucky Derby 2017: Top 5 Best Sleepers & Dark Horses