The PGA Tour heads to TPC Sawgrass this week for the Players Championship. Though it's easily one of the best tournaments of the year due to the strength of the field--this is the first time all year Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Jordan Spieth will play the same tournament--it also makes for a lot of difficult to decisions when it comes to DraftKings and Daily Fantasy Golf.
Perhaps the most important of those decisions revolves around Johnson. The World No. 1 is playing at an unreal level right. After a three-tournament winning streak was disrupted by a back injury that forced him to miss a month, he returned last week at the Wells Fargo Championship, showed some early rust (he made the cut on the line) and fired a pair of 67's on the weekend to ultimately finish second. He's unstoppable right now, and fading him in DFS is an always-dangerous proposition. That said, he's the most expensive option--$800 more than anyone else even in a stacked field--and he's never finished better than 28th in eight starts at TPC Sawgrass, a course that limits the effect of his power off the tee. If you go with DJ, you not only have to find bargains elsewhere, but there's a lower floor with him than usual.
Ultimately, in a field so deep, Johnson is just the first of many intriguing lineup choices. There are so many good players, so much potential value and so few roster spots. It's going to be a fun week, and you can click through the gallery for my optimal DraftKings picks. You can also read here for my Top 10 power rankings, and here for some sleepers to watch. (Getty)
Rory McIlroy
Price: $11,200
I won't be completely fading Dustin Johnson in all of my lineups, but if I have to pick just one lineup, I'm starting it with McIlroy, who has he tallied a Top-10 in every 72-hole tournament start (not counting Match Play) since returning from a rib injury in early March (T7 at WGC-Mexico, T4 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T7 at the Masters), and who ranks fourth in the field in strokes gained tee to green over the last 12 weeks.
Moreover, he has TPC Sawgrass figured out with a Top-12 finish in each of the last four years--and that's despite losing strokes via the putter (-0.914 in 2016, -0.510 in 2015, -0.109 in 2014, -0.297) in every single one of those tournaments. Even if he continues to struggle with the flatstick, his immaculate tee-to-green game, as we've seen, gives him a good chance at a Top-10. But if he can just be average on the greens, he'll run away with this thing. That's the kind of floor/upside combo I want with my most expensive player. (Getty)
Justin Thomas
Price: $8,900
Thomas has three wins, six Top-10's and eight Top-25's this season. That's good. He also has three missed cuts, all of which have come since the start of February. That's not so good. The talented 24-year-old is a pretty big risk/reward option, but there are a few things that make me feel comfortable trusting him here.
First, he seems to to relish the task of taking on the world's best players. He finished 23rd at the WGC-HSBC Championship, won the SBS Tournament of Champions, tied for fifth at the WGC-Mexico and finished 22nd at the Masters. If it's a strong field like this one, he tends to make his way towards the leaderboard.
Second, he clearly enjoys TPC Sawgrass. He has finishes of 24th and third in his two starts here, he has carded a 65 twice (the course record is 63), and he leads the field in birdie or better percentage at this track. (Getty)
Henrik Stenson
Price: $8,800
Over the last two months, Stenson has provided precisely zero reasons why you should trust him, as he has missed four consecutive cuts (the last being a team event). I wouldn't touch him with a Gheorghe Muresan-sized pole in cash games, but in GPP and tournament formats, he's an interesting option.
Not only should he have a low ownership percentage, but this is a good place for him to bounce back. TPC Sawgrass is a Pete Dye course, which means it generally favors accuracy over power and often requires players to club down off the tee. That's a Stenson specialty, as he ranks third on tour in strokes gained at less-than-driver courses since 2013-14. Even with his recent struggles, he still ranks ninth in the field in driving accuracy over the last 12 weeks.
Stenson's course history backs up that point. He's missed three cuts in 11 starts, but a lot of good players have missed cuts here, plus he also has a win, four Top-10's and seven Top-25's. Among active players, he's second behind only Sergio Garcia on the Players Championship all-time money list. If he's going to right the ship anytime soon, this is where he'll do it. (Getty)
Martin Kaymer
Price: $7,300
Speaking of course history, Kaymer has made the cut at all eight of his starts here, he won in 2014 and he shares the course record. He combines that with sparkling recent form, as his 14 consecutive made cuts ranks first on Tour, while he ranks 13th in the field in birdie-or-better percentage and 17th in strokes gained putting over the last 12 weeks. That's a span that includes four Top-25's in five starts, including a T16 at the Masters.
Outside of the elite, upper-tier options, you'd be hard-pressed to find a better blend of course history and recent form. Kaymer comes in 10th on my power rankings, but he's just the 34th-most expensive option on DraftKings. He'll probably be popular, but I don't want to pass up that kind of value. (Getty)
Emiliano Grillo
Price: $7,000
Grillo missed the cut in his debut at the Players last year, but lets' take a closer look at that. He averaged 304.8 yards off the tee, hit 78.57 percent of fairways and had a 75.00 GIR percentage. For comparison, Jason Day, the tournament's winner, was at 311.6, 58.93, and 72.22, respectively. It was a tee-to-green clinic from Grillo, but he was done in by atrocious putting, as he lost 3.596 strokes with the flatstick in just two rounds.
Here's the encouraging part. Grillo has gained strokes with his putter at the last two tournaments that track that stat (Arnold Palmer Invitational and last week's Wells Fargo Championship) and appears to be finding a comfort on the greens. If he combine last year's performance on the fairways with his recent putting, he's going to be a steal at $7,000. (Getty)
Adam Hadwin
Price: $6,800
Plagued by a third-round 82, Hadwin finished 72nd at the Valero Texas Open in his last start. But before that, he had a win at the Valspar, a Top-10 at the Arnold Palmer, a solid showing (T36) at the Masters, and a Top-25 at another Pete Dye Course at the RBC Heritage. I'm not going to let one really bad round sway me from a player who has been really good for most of the season, and who ranks 10th in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green over the last 12 weeks. Especially at $6,800, which is far too low for him. (Getty)
DraftKings PGA Lineup: Players Championship 2017 Optimal Picks