The Dolphins look to extend their strong start to 5-2 when they visit the Ravens for Thursday Night Football. Jay Cutler is out for the Dolphins, making Matt Moore the starter against Baltimore’s stout defense. According to OddsShark, the Ravens are favored by three points, and the total is set at just 37.
No, that’s not a typo. Vegas is projecting a paltry 37 points for Thursday, one of the lowest projected totals in the NFL this season. Baltimore and Miami aren’t known for scoring points, and in that category (points per game) they are ranked 23rd and 31st, respectively. But Moore has a little gunslinger in him, and will try to test a top-10 secondary on the road Thursday.
When Moore filled in for Ryan Tannehill last season, Moore was not afraid to take his chances. In three regular season starts last season, Moore totaled 674 yards with eight touchdowns and three interceptions.
Of course, Miami’s identity is Jay Ajayi and their physical run game. The Ravens are dead-last against the run this season, surrendering a league-worst 145.3 yards per game on the ground.
Despite their quarterback struggles, the Dolphins have been one of the NFL’s best teams over a recent stretch. They are 13-5 in their last 18 games, a number that puts them on par with the Patriots and Chiefs. But the Dolphins are 1-6 in their last six meetings with Baltimore, with the only win coming in a 15-13 slugfest in their previous meeting.
The OddsShark computer is projecting a similar result for tonight, tabulating that the Ravens will win the matchup 21.4-16.9. That means that the computer is projecting the Ravens to cover, and for the total to narrowly finish over.
The Ravens have lost four of their last five games, a stretch that includes three home losses. Joe Flacco has been struggling this season, and has thrown two touchdowns and four picks in his last four games. The Ravens have also gone 1-4 against the spread over this span, and the team is just 7-14-1 against the spread in their last 22 home games.
Heavy’s Pick: Ravens 20 Dolphins 24. Dolphins Cover +3 Spread. Over on the Point Total.