Most fans have been looking forward to NBA free agency and the draft as the majority of teams have been out of contention for months. NBA free agency begins July 1st, but players cannot sign contracts until JULY 6. According to Basketball Insiders, the salary cap for 2018-19 is projected to be $101 million, which would just be a $2 million jump from last season.
This summer is all about LeBron James, and even the other top free agents will be waiting to see what James decides as he tends to have a domino effect on free agency when he is on the market. Other notable free agents include Paul George, Chris Paul, DeMarcus Cousins, Clint Capela, DeAndre Jordan, Julius Randle and Aaron Gordon. Kevin Durant will technically be a free agent, but has already stated he is committed to re-signing with Golden State.
We are just two years removed from the 2016 off-season when the cap took a massive jump thanks to the new television deal. Teams opened their checkbooks to overpay marginal players, and are now suffering the consequences. Fast forward to this summer where top players are in danger of being forced to take pennies on the dollar with very few teams having cap space. Real GM's capologist Keith Smith provides a great summary for what is likely to happen this summer.
"Approximately 80 percent of the league will be over the cap," Smith writes. "The cap spike that caused multiple teams to have copious amounts of cap space each summer from 2015 through 2017 has now flattened out. Large contracts the were handed out over the previous three years, combined with the cap flattening and the increase in rookie scale deals, will see the NBA back to its regular state."
According to Smith's projections, only seven teams will have cap space this summer: Hawks, Nets, Bulls, Pacers, Lakers, Sixers and Kings. The Lakers ($58.3 million), Pacers ($32.8 million) and Hawks ($29.3 million) are projected to have the most cap space. These teams can be players in free agency as well as be in the market to absorb contracts if there is something desirable attached to it (i.e. young players and draft picks).
The lack of teams with cap space will not impact major players like James or George as they can likely force a sign-and-trade to the team of their choosing if they desire. The NBA's middle class is likely to suffer the most, which could either lead to players signing contracts for less than they expected, or a lot of one-year deals where players look to go back on the market in 2019. Basketball Insiders reported the cap number is expected to jump up about $7 million to $108 million for the 2019-20 season.
Anytime King James is on the market, free agency receives increased attention, but there are a lot of additional subplots with the remaining free agents. Heavy has ranked the top five NBA free agents for 2018. Here are a few players who just missed the list: Aaron Gordon, Julius Randle, Nerlens Noel, Tyreke Evans, Jusuf Nurkić and Marcus Smart. We did not include Durant given his public commitment to the Warriors.
Click next to see our list of the top 2018 NBA free agents.
No. 5 C Clint Capela, Houston Rockets
Some fans might be surprised to see Capela's name here over other players like DeAndre Jordan. Houston gave the NBA a blueprint of how a team can thrive with a player like Capela playing center. In the old NBA, Capela would be cast away as too thin, but in today's league he's the perfect size for what teams want to do. Capela runs the floor, and offers the Rockets versatility on offense. He's skilled enough to score in the post, and is a rim protector on defense. The only two knocks on his game are his free throw shooting and lack of a three-point shot.
Capela has gotten better every season, and has come a long way from his rookie year when he played in just 12 games. Last season, Capela set career marks in nearly every major statistical category averaging 13.9 points, 10.8 rebounds and 1.9 blocks per game. Capela is just 24 years old, and is just now entering his prime.
The good news for the Rockets is Capela is a restricted free agent, meaning Houston can match any offer. The bad news is Capela is going to receive a healthy raise from his $2.3 million salary in 2017-18, and will likely not be able to be retained if the Rockets make a serious run at another free agent like LeBron James or Paul George. Capela is going to get plenty of offers from bad teams as there are only a handful of teams in the running for other top free agents. Rockets Wire reported the Suns will go hard after Capela, and are prepared to offer him a near-max contract. It is important to consider that this came out prior to the NBA lottery, and the Suns plans could change if they end up selecting Deandre Ayton in the draft.
"According to a league source, one such team is the Phoenix Suns," the Rockets Wire reported. "They have kept tabs on him throughout the season, and have reportedly become 'enamored' with him. They have plans to offer Capela a max or near-max contract once free agency begins. The source requested anonymity because he isn’t authorized to comment on the Suns’ plans."
Hoops Hype mentions the Mavericks and Lakers as two potential landing spots that make a lot of sense. Hoops Hype noted the Mavericks would not mind sticking it to their conference in-state rival.
"What’s more, the fact the Mavs would be negatively affecting an in-state conference rival certainly couldn’t hurt their motivation to make such a move," Hoops Hype explained. "Either they land Capela and make the Rockets scamper to find an adequate replacement, or they force Houston to match a huge offer sheet, thus harming the Rockets’ future cap flexibility, something general manager Daryl Morey values almost above all else."
If Capela ends up waiting for some of the top veteran free agents to get snatched up, it is reasonable to think that a bidding war could ensue to sign Capela, leaving the Rockets with a very difficult decision.
No. 4 DeMarcus Cousins, New Orleans Pelicans
Cousins is arguably one of the top free agents on the market, but it is not clear how many teams will be willing to give him near max money. The market for NBA big men continues to shrink, and Cousins has had questions surrounding him (fair or unfair) throughout his career. ESPN's Zach Lowe reported on a podcast with Bill Simmons that there is not a market for Cousins based on the above reasons as well as his injury.
“There’s no market for DeMarcus Cousins outside Dallas and then you have to go into sign-and-trade world," Lowe reported (via Hoops Hype. "The Lakers are obviously out there too. People react like, ‘No, Cousins is a star, ever team will be willing to pay him the max.’ OK, who? He’s a big man coming off an Achilles tear and half the teams [with cap room] don’t want to spend their cap room because they’re bad."
If that's true, his options are likely to re-sign with the Pelicans, or go to a bad team with cap space who is willing to potentially overpay him. In an interview with The Undefeated, Cousins noted he has enjoyed his time in New Orleans, but also admitted he will be focusing on the business side of things.
"I know for a fact my teammates want me back there, but you know it’s a business," Cousins told The Undefeated. "The people in the front office are going to make the best decision for the team or whatever they feel is the best decision. You know, we’ll see what happens. I honestly can’t answer that question, I haven’t spoken to the front office in a while, so we’ll see what happens...Oh yeah, for sure. This is my first time in free agency, but I’ve been around this business long enough. I know how things work. I’m not out here trying to hold a grudge or anything like that. I’m going to make the best decision for me, and I believe teams are going to do the same thing."
Cousins told The Undefeated he is targeting a return for the beginning of the season, but noted the doctors have not given him a timetable. All of this makes Cousins one of the more interesting free agency cases this summer. If he would have been a free agents a couple years ago when the cap initially went up, there is no doubt Cousins would have had multiple max contract offers. Now, it is less clear. It does not help that the Pelicans went on a run in Cousins' absence, but it still seems likely that New Orleans are the most likely candidate to give him a sizable offer. Cousins high school coach Otis Hughley spoke to Basketball and Society about how he fits next to Anthony Davis.
“I would like to see him play with AD again, but the way the business model was set up, and the salary cap may make it tougher for New Orleans to step out there," Hughley explained to Basketball and Society. "I think everybody is trying to play leverage and hoping that everybody would fall out so they could get him for 10 cents on the dollar. Demarcus is way too smart for that.”
No. 3 PG Chris Paul, Houston Rockets
It is a big off-season for the Rockets as they try to retain Paul and Capela. From the sounds of things, Paul is looking to recruit other free agents to come to Houston rather than having his eyes on another squad. The New York Times' Marc Stein reported that Paul is recruiting James to join him and James Harden.
"Don't get me wrong: There will still be plenty of talk over the next two weeks about what James will do July 1 and the growing belief that he'll be leaving his home-state Cavaliers this offseason to join a team better suited to consistently challenge Golden State," Stein writes. "Rest assured that the Rockets' understandably devastated Chris Paul — who made a fast exit from Toyota Center late Monday night after being forced to watch the biggest game of his life from the bench because of his hamstring injury — has already begun his recruitment of James to Houston."
According to TMZ, Paul recently purchased a mansion in Texas just a short drive from the Toyota Center, and has put his Los Angeles home up for sale. It looks like Paul is settling into Houston, but nothing is certain until the player signs the paperwork.
Paul's season had a disappointing end as a hamstring injury prevented him from playing in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Injuries have prevented the 33-year-old from playing a full season over the last two years. Paul played in 58 games this season, and 61 games with the Clippers in 2016-17. Aside from the injuries, Paul has been effective when he is on the floor averaging 18.6 points, 7.9 assists, 5.4 rebounds and 1.7 steals this season.
There is always the chance James tries to get Paul to join him at another destination, but very few teams have enough cap space to sign two max players. Unless Paul signs a one-year contract, this is likely Paul's last major deal, and the point guard will be looking for the max. Even to get James to come to the Rockets, both players would have to take a significant pay cut to make it work under the cap. Paul told the Houston Chronicle in April that he had not begun to think about his decision this summer, but reinforced that he liked being in Houston.
“Not at all [thought about free agency],” Paul told the Houston Chronicle. “Not one time. Not once. I just always worry about right now...Not at all. Not one time. Not once. I just always worry about right now.”
GM Daryl Morey did a lot of work to acquire Paul, and has every intention of keeping Paul in the Lone Star State. It will take a bit of work for the Rockets to be able to retain both Paul and Capela.
"Obviously, when we get someone as great as Chris Paul or James Harden, the plan is to keep him here,” Morey noted to the Houston Chronicle. “He'll have a choice when the season ends. We feel like we set things up well. It should be an easy choice for him."
No. 2 SF Paul George, Oklahoma City Thunder
Paul George has a player option that most expect him to exercise. For more than a year, George has been linked to Los Angeles where he grew up. As free agency approaches, there are conflicting reports on George's plans. OKC KWTV's Sports Director Dean Blevins reported his agent his telling people George plans to resign with the Thunder.
"Allegedly, apparently, Paul George plans to stay with the Thunder," Blevins noted (via Clutch Points). "I know. It’s not what people believe. But in separate conversations, I’m told P.G.’s agent has told people associated with the NBA that P.G. believes the injury loss of Andre Roberson was huge and he’s staying. Disclaimer, though: Believing everything that agents allegedly say can be dangerous to your health."
Thanks to their mid-season trades, the Lakers have enough cap space they can sign George along with another key player. Many believed George approached the Pacers for a trade knowing he was heading to Los Angeles this summer, but that will not stop other teams from making a run at George. The Rockets and Sixers are two teams with reported interest in George.
Everything starts and ends with LeBron James. More than any other player, George is next in line as the most attractive free agent. The Sixers (along with any other team) likely prefer James, but could go hard after George if James turns them down. The Philadelphia Inquirer reported George is next on the Sixers list of targets.
For those looking to draw similarities to Kevin Durant's exit, Russell Westbrook has tried to point out the difference.
"Two different relationships...Obviously Kevin was here for many years and decided to leave and Paul’s only been here for a few months," Westbrook explained to Mass Live. "But like I said before, our friendship ad our bond we created together is more important to me."
The connection between George and the Lakers really started to heat up last summer. The George and James connection is less clear but ESPN's Ramona Shelburne and Brian Windhorst reported that James tried to recruit George to the Cavs when it became clear he was requesting a trade. For whatever reason, the deal never came to fruition.
"At this stage of James' career, a roster with two-way players who could help battle his rivals in Golden State would be a huge plus," ESPN noted. "Other playmakers who can take the burden off James would help as well. That's the reason James and George, the other marquee free agent next summer, have been linked. James aggressively recruited George behind the scenes last summer, selling him on a future together in Cleveland, but the Cavs deal mysteriously fell apart before George was dealt to Oklahoma City."
If George is to play with James next season, he would likely have to convince James to join him in Los Angeles. The Lakers have the clearest path (of the rumored contenders) from a salary cap perspective to sign two marquee free agents.
No. 1 SF LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
For all the speculation surrounding James, the Akron native has been mostly silent about his future. In an April interview with Cleveland.com, James noted the two key criteria that he will be considering is winning and his family.
"My family. That's all that matters," James told Cleveland.com. "I want to continue to win at the highest level, because I know I can still do it as an individual, and then my family. My family is what's most important to me, more than anything."
What this means in practical terms only James knows. James has been outspoken about his family's frustration with Cavs owner Dan Gilbert after his public criticism of James' departure to Miami. Fans could interpret his statement as meaning he wants to leave the Cavs, but it could also mean his family enjoys being back in Ohio. The winning part is a little less subjective as the Cavs long-term contending hopes appear to be in doubt. There is a good portion of the Cavs roster who have underperformed, and are on bloated contract. This makes it difficult for Cleveland to offer James much in the way of promises when it comes to improving the team.
What James showed this year is his presence on a team instantly makes it a title contender. This was far from the most talented roster James has played on, but the team was still able to make the NBA finals. Teams like the Rockets and Sixers will offer James more help around him. The bigger question is how James wants this portion of his career to be defined. Does his family want to live in Los Angeles where they have two houses? Is the Sixers young roster enough to entice James to head to Philly? Will James' close relationship with Chris Paul cause him to seriously consider the Rockets? The myth of big markets being the deciding factor for free agents has essentially been proven false at this point, thanks to the internet. James' friend and business partner Maverick Carter said just that on The Rich Eisen Show.
“These days it doesn’t matter because you can be known and be a star from anywhere – anywhere in the world,” Carter said on The Rich Eisen Show (via The Orange County Register). “I mean, could he sell a few more sneakers if he was in a gigantic market like Boston, Chicago, New York, or L.A.? Maybe. But not as much as if he wins. What matters the most is if he wins. When you win as an athlete, that matters the most.”
What we do know is this summer's NBA free agency will be must watch television thanks in large part to James, who has only gotten better with age. While a return to Cleveland is not out of the question, James will have more attractive options this summer, if winning is the top priority for King James.
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