Getty With back-to-back wins, the Capitals have seized control of the series.
The Capitals got two goals from their stars and held on late for a 3-1 win in Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Final. It was the first of two games in Washington, giving them a 2-1 series lead. The Capitals covered the spread, and the total went under for the second straight game. Onto Game 4:
Stanley Cup Game 4 Odds
The teams are starting to separate, and the odds are starting to reflect this sentiment.
NHL
Stanley Cup Final – Game 4
Monday, June 4, 2018
5:00 pm pacific
Vegas Golden Knights +120 5.5 Ov EV
Washington Capitals -130 5.5 Un -120
Series Price:
Capitals -240
Golden Knights +190
Washington’s moneyline in Game 4 is the biggest of either team in the series. The margin is even wider when it comes to the series price, where Washington is now a startling -240 to raise the Cup. That means that Vegas thinks the Capitals now have a 70 percent chance to win the series.
If you believe in history, this was a massive game for the Capitals. Since the Original Six era, the winner of Game 3 has went on to raise the Stanley Cup about 70 percent of the time. They’ve certainly seized the momentum, and have Vegas against the wall with another home game coming on Monday.
In Game 3, Washington seemed to have a gameplan for everything Vegas wanted to do. They were stifling on defense, out-shooting and out-hitting their visiting opponents. After a scoreless first period, Alex Ovechkin found the net for the second time in this series to open the score. About 10 minutes later, Evgeny Kuznetsov, who was questionable to play with an arm injury, scored the team’s second goal after assisting on the first.
Vegas cut the lead in half early in the third period, when Tomas Nosek beat Holtby for his team’s first goal. It was the only goal of the night for Vegas, who didn’t get the same volume of opportunities they saw in Vegas. They were also only on the power play twice, and struggled in
Stanley Cup Game 4 Prediction
If Vegas doesn’t make changes, they are toast. Too many long-distance shots, not enough consistent offense, not taking advantage of opportunities, and too much talent on the other team.
If there is any highlight for Vegas, it’s that their fourth line has outshined all others in the series. They notched the only goal for Vegas on Saturday, when an awful turnover by Holtby led to an easy poke-in from Nosek. SBNation noted that Vegas’ top line was effective, especially early, but they were not and have not been able to convert chances.
As in most Stanley Cup Finals, the series will lean in favor of the hotter goalie. That’s certainly been Holtby, before and after his mesmerizing save in Game 2. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed seven goals in the first two games, but he was solid in net for Game 3.
Vegas in six was the prediction here, but it’s looking increasingly likely that it goes the other way. Washington has been more consistent on offense, and Vegas hasn’t been getting scoring from their top line.
Prediction: Home team has the edge, keep betting the under