Mexico look to pull off their second massive upset at this World Cup when they take on Brazil in a Round of 16 matchup. Mexico knocked off Germany in their group opener, but sputtered on their way to a runner-up finish. Meanwhile, Brazil cruised through their group and remain a favorite to win the touanemtn.
Mexico vs. Brazil Odds
Brazil is the money;line favorite, priced as high as -200 according to OddsShark.com. Mexico are a huge underdog at +685 while the draw is set at +340.
Brazil is the favorite on the spread as well, looking at -115 when laying a goal. Even getting a goal, Mexico is a slight underdog at +105.
Remember, these bets are for regulation only. In the World Cup, the bets do not carry into extra time and penalty kicks.
The goal total is set at 2.5 goals, with the over and under both priced at -110.
Mexico vs. Brazil Prediction
They call it Quinto Partido. The fifth game has always been the departure point for Mexico at the World Cup, and this could be the seventh straight time that El Tri have been eliminated at this stage.
No team took a downward trend into the Knockout Phase like Mexico, who endured a 3-0 beatdown at the hands of Sweden on the last day of group play. Before that, Mexico had been flying high with victories over Germany and South Korea.
Neymar is healthy for Brazil, but injuries still loom large on both sides. Marcelo practiced on Sunday, and could be available, but will likely at least start the match on the bench. Marcelo left his team’s group finale early with a back spasm, and was replaced on the field by Felipe Luis.
Mexico would have a problem slowing down Brazil with their best defenders, but they’re losing another key member for this contest. Hector Moreno is suspended for yellow card accumulation, leaving Mexico incredibly thin in the back.
Brazil and Mexico have met in competition so many times that it’s tough to ignore the history. They’ve met more than 40 times, with Brazil taking 23 wins. They’ve met in the World Cup four times, and not only has Mexico never won, but they’ve never scored and conceded 11 goals. That being said, the previous meeting in 2014 finished in a scoreless draw.
With the pressure on Neymar, Philipe Couthinho has been able to break free and shine at this World Cup. He’s got two goals already, and has been the driving force for Brazil with Neymar getting beat up.
I was all-in on Mexico to start the tournament, but they’ve lost the momentum of the Germany win. Brazil are too tough to prepare for, and I’m concerned about Mexico’s recent history of blowout losses in international tournaments. The crazy part of this Brazil team is they haven’t really been winning with goals- they’ve been winning with defense. I think that continues on Monday, despite a furious push from Mexico in the final minutes.
Prediction: Brazil win 1-0