Week 4 of the NFL season is underway, kicking off with an exciting game between the Minnesota Vikings and Los Angeles Rams. The high-scoring matchup put aside the whole "Thursday Night Football games are boring" argument, at least for one week. And Sunday's slate features plenty of potentially high-scoring games, great matchups, and intriguing fantasy options.
For daily fantasy football players, the options on DraftKings are once again loaded. Between a mixture of multi-entry games with huge guaranteed prize pools, cash games, single entries with big payouts and more, it'll be another busy weekend of building lineups.
The always-popular millionaire maker is once again back, but this time it features just a $10 buy-in with $4 million in guaranteed money. It's a 150-max entry game, so when building your daily fantasy lineups there, you'll want to get a bit creative.
For players looking at single entry events, three-max options or even cash games, DraftKings makes sure to cover a bit of it all. For the high-dollar fantasy players, the $333 Wildcat features $1.5 million guaranteed and $250,000 to first place. Interesting, the site has rolled out a new $33 game which features $1 million guaranteed as well and $100,000 to first place.
This week, I'm going to continue the approach I offered last week when covering the DraftKings plays, as it may help to provide additional insight into the players I'm targeting most and how I view the top options. First, there'll be a breakdown of my top projected scorers at each position, followed by the best value plays.
Following the evaluation of the names, I'll build one optimal lineup for each position based off my favorite play(s). Each lineup will be unique and different, but the rankings of players and values will allow you to pivot off specific players if you aren't overly interested in them.
While we're still awaiting word on some injury news, a few early updates have opened up some solid value plays at various positions.
*NOTE: As news rolls on throughout the weekend and early Sunday, I'll update any rankings as needed. It's unlikely there will be massive changes, but check the rankings and lineups sporadically.
Let's dive in and kick things off with the top quarterback plays, values and the optimal lineup built around the position.
Top-10 Highest Projected Quarterbacks on DraftKings
– Deshaun Watson ($6,300) vs. Colts
– Drew Brees ($6,600) vs. Giants
– Aaron Rodgers ($6,800) vs. Bills
– Matt Ryan ($6,100) vs. Bengals
– Tom Brady ($6,700) vs. Dolphins
– Andrew Luck ($5,500) vs. Texans
– Philip Rivers ($6,500) vs. 49ers
– Andy Dalton ($5,400) vs. Falcons
– Ryan Fitzpatrick ($6,200) vs. Bears
– Blake Bortles ($5,200) vs. Jets
DraftKings Quarterback Value Plays
*Note: All value plays at wide receiver cost roughly $6,000 or less.
As you can see from the above rankings, there are quite a few value plays who come in near the top of the board this week. Even Matt Ryan ($6,100) is just outside of the value range in a nice matchup against the Bengals who have allowed 270.3 passing yards per game this season.
Ryan once again comes in as one of my top plays, but there's a strong argument to be made on spending down at the position this week. Quarterback is pretty loaded and we thankfully don't have Patrick Mahomes on this slate to throw for 18 touchdowns and make every other signal caller seem like a mediocre play.
On this slate, the true value starts with Andrew Luck, who I nearly placed higher on this list. The Texans have struggled against quarterbacks this season, allowing them to complete 64-of-88 passes for 691 yards and six touchdowns. While we've yet to see Luck air it out all that much, if he opens it up this week, it'll be huge for fantasy players at just $5,500.
When it comes to Andy Dalton you just have to take the good with the bad. While last week against the Carolina Panthers wasn't pretty from an actual game perspective, as Dalton threw four interceptions, he had a fine fantasy day. Thanks to his 352 passing yards and two touchdowns, the Bengals quarterback finished with 21 DraftKings points.
Dalton now draws a Falcons defense which has allowed 858 yards and six touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. According to ESPN, they've also allowed signal callers to rack up the fourth-most fantasy points per game this year.
And then there's the topic of Blake Bortles, who looked incredible against the Patriots, throwing for 377 yards and four touchdowns. He followed that up by racking up 155 yards on 34 attempts against the Tennessee Titans, which all makes perfect sense. The matchup with the Jets isn't the best on paper, but the Jaguars are at home and at $5,200 I'm willing to bet on a Bortles bounceback.
It's worth noting that I also like Baker Mayfield ($5,300) against the Raiders, but I think he's going to have fairly high ownership and there's plenty of unknown surrounding him. I love his game and think he has tremendous upside, but how will things go when a team actually has tape and a week to prepare for him? Regardless, the matchup is good as the Raiders have allowed 744 yards and five touchdowns through the air to opposing quarterbacks on just 54 completions.
Top DraftKings Optimal Lineup Around Favorite QB Play
– QB: Deshaun Watson
– RB: Giovani Bernard
– RB: Sony Michel
– WR: DeAndre Hopkins
– WR: A.J. Green
– WR: Allen Robinson
– TE: Eric Ebron
– FLEX: Sterling Shephard
– DST: Chicago Bears
Top-10 Highest Projected Running Back on DraftKings
– Alvin Kamara ($9,600) vs. Giants
– Saquon Barkley ($8,100) vs. Saints
– Melvin Gordon ($8,300) vs. 49ers
– Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700) vs. Lions
– Giovani Bernard ($6,300) vs. Falcons
– *Leonard Fournette ($7,000) vs. Jets
– David Johnson ($6,600) vs. Seahawks
– Sony Michel ($5,400) vs. Dolphins
– Tevin Coleman ($5,900) vs. Bengals
– James White ($5,400) vs. Dolphins
*Leonard currently questionable
Tier 2
With there being so many running backs and wide receivers worth playing, I've offered up two tiers of rankings for the two positions. Both lists are ranked based on highest projected and the number of players in tier two will depend on how much I like the options.
– Carlos Hyde ($5,500) vs. Raiders
– Jordan Howard ($6,800) vs. Buccaneers
– Chris Carson ($4,600) vs. Cardinals
– Marshawn Lynch ($4,800) vs. Browns
– Kerryon Johnson ($4,400) vs. Cowboys
– Austin Ekeler ($4,200) vs. 49ers
DraftKings Running Back Value Plays
*Note: All value plays at running back cost roughly $6,000 or less.
Week 4 is loaded with running back value plays, starting with two Patriots players in Sony Michel and James White. I was close to placing White above Michel, but the latter's price and the fact that he was a huge part of the gameplan last week stood out. With Rex Burkhead being placed on injured reserve, and Michel receiving 14 carries and three targets in a game the Patriots were behind in from the first quarter, it makes his price hard to overlook.
On the flip side, White is about as safe of a play as you can imagine it seems from a "high floor" standpoint. He's going to get targets from Tom Brady regardless of the situation and has hit 14 DraftKings points or more in every game. White's usage should also go up with Burkhead out, so he's safe to roll out all over at $5,400.
While the Bengals defense isn't bad, they haven't done well in terms of keeping opposing running backs from producing in fantasy. Pair that with the low price of Tevin Coleman who'll get another week with no Devonta Freeman, and he's hard to pass up. After nearly scoring 20 fantasy points two weeks ago, Coleman struggled a bit in Week 4, rushing for just 33 yards. Fortunately, he still managed 12.7 points and the Bengals have allowed 305 rushing yards, 179 receiving yards and two touchdowns to backs.
I'm excited to see what Carlos Hyde does while playing alongside Baker Mayfield, as it seems safe to assume his fantasy value will increase. Hyde has found the end zone in every game this season (twice last week) but Mayfield's first game was the first time he posted a yards-per-carry average above 3.0. The Raiders aren't bad against running backs, but I think Hyde could still pay off his $5,500 price tag pretty easily.
Chris Carson is a name I expect many fantasy players have circled, but Pete Carroll's use of running backs terrifies me a bit. Even still, Carson is coming off a game in which he received 34 touches, including a whopping 32 carries. His previous high this season was seven carries, so it seems Carroll may be set to go all-in on Carson (hopefully).
If this proves to be the case for the Seahawks running back, he draws an exceptional matchup, as the Cardinals have allowed 370 rushing yards, 208 receiving yards and six total touchdowns. Carson found the end zone last week and this looks like a prime spot for him to do it again.
Speaking of giving up touchdowns on the ground, the Browns have allowed four rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs, so Marshawn Lynch should find the end zone Sunday. The veteran has scored a touchdown in all three games this season and his workload has increased in each game along the way as well. Beast Mode seems like a great option at $4,800 in a spot where the Raiders desperately need a win.
The matchups for Kerryon Johnson and Austin Ekeler don't get me overly excited, but they're both in play due to the ability to catch passes. Neither matchup is bad, as both the Cowboys and 49ers rank in the middle of the league against running backs, but they've allowed 24 and 26 receptions, respectively.
After a breakout performance, I'm interested to see if Johnson can continue trending upwards for the Lions. He only played 44 percent of the offensive snaps last week, per Football Outsiders, but it resulted in 16 carries for 101 yards and three targets.
Top DraftKings Optimal Lineup Around Favorite RB Plays
– QB: Matt Ryan
– RB: Saquon Barkley
– RB: Ezekiel Elliott
– WR: Julio Jones
– WR: Randall Cobb
– WR: Antonio Callaway
– TE: O.J. Howard
– FLEX: Sony Michel
– DST: Dallas Cowboys
New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas
Top-10 Highest Projected Tight Ends on DraftKings
– Rob Gronkowski ($7,000) vs. Dolphins
– Zach Ertz ($6,200) vs. Titans
– Eric Ebron ($3,600) vs. Texans
– Jimmy Graham ($4,500) vs. Bills
– Tyler Eifert ($3,800) vs. Falcons
– Jared Cook ($4,100) vs. Browns
– O.J. Howard ($3,500) vs. Bears
– Trey Burton ($3,900) vs. Buccaneers
– David Njoku ($3,200) vs. Raiders
– Austin Hooper ($2,900) vs. Bengals
DraftKings Tight End Value Plays
*Note: All value plays at tight end cost roughly $4,000 or less.
I'm not all that excited about tight end this week, but there is some intriguing value. I'm hoping most opt against going back to Eric Ebron after he let down a bit last week. With Jack Doyle ruled out, Ebron caught five passes for just 33 yards. But the key is that he drew 11 targets from Andrew Luck, and with Doyle out again in Week 4 and a fine matchup for tight ends in the Texans, it's hard to pass on Ebron at this price.
It sort of seems like the entire list of top tight ends aside from two players could qualify as a "value," which may help to keep ownership down on some names. Tyler Eifert is one name who many are scared of due to his injury history, but he's trending in the right direction. Not only have his targets increased each week, but the Bengals tight end hauled in six passes for 74 yards last week and looked good.
It's also worth noting Eifert played the most offensive snaps of any tight end (65 percent of them), per Football Outsiders, so his time on the field appears to be safe. The Falcons haven't been shredded by tight ends, but this should be a high-scoring game and Eifert could certainly post a solid line with or without a touchdown.
O.J. Howard and Ryan Fitzpatrick seem to be getting along well, and their rapport is only building as the season rolls on. Howard's big-play potential was on display in the Buccaneers' first two games, as he totaled 54 yards (on two catches) and 96 yards (three catches). But last week, the young tight end hauled in 6-of-8 targets for 72 yards and was able to impress as a do-it-all type pass-catcher. The Bears have allowed opposing tight ends to find the end zone twice this year as well, so don't be surprised if Howard finds success.
No Anthony Miller could lead to a few more targets for Trey Burton, who's remained between 4-6 looks each game. The positive news is that after he and Trubisky connected on just 1-of-6 in the opener, Burton has totaled four catches in each of the past two games. Week 3 was his best showing yet, as he totaled 55 yards and now draws a beautiful matchup Sunday.
The Buccaneers have given up the most receptions (25) and yards (329) to opposing tight ends this season. If Trubisky continues to look Burton's way and even opts to tack an extra target or two onto his workload, it could be a big game for the low-priced tight end.
So here's where things get fun. Will David Njoku finally breakout and live up to his potential with Mayfield at quarterback? Interestingly, he saw just two targets last week but totaled a season-high in yards (36). If he gets the targets, Njoku has a very high ceiling, but the matchup isn't the best on paper and there's certainly some level of risk. With that said, I'm fine using the Browns tight end at $3,200 in GPPs.
The Bengals have struggled to contain tight ends this season, and while Austin Hooper is like the fifth option in this passing game, he still has some fantasy appeal. The Falcons tight end has seen at least four targets in every game and if he produces how he did in Week 2 (five catches, 59 yards, one touchdown), it easily pays off the $2,900 price tag.
Top DraftKings Optimal Lineup Around Favorite TE Play
– QB: Andy Dalton
– RB: Giovani Bernard
– RB: Marshawn Lynch
– WR: Odell Beckham Jr.
– WR: Allen Robinson
– WR: Mike Williams
– TE: Rob Gronkowski
– FLEX: Tyler Eifert
– DST: Green Bay Packers
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DraftKings Week 4 Fantasy: Top Optimal Lineups, Rankings & Picks