Daily fantasy sports websites have no problem trying out new things, and when DraftKings rolled out their showdown games, it offered an entirely new way to play. In short, you're filling out a smaller lineup that features players from one single game. The popularity of these new games has quickly exploded, and the site now offers massive options for players when showdown slates are on tap.
Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season featured DraftKings offering a $2.5 million guaranteed game, which included a $10 buy-in and $1 million to first place last Thursday night. This was sort of a "welcome to the action" game, as the showdown contests typically aren't quite this large, but NFL, compared to other sports, will almost always feature larger prize pools.
The first DraftKings showdown slate of Week 2 features the 'Battle for the North' – a $10 game with $750k guaranteed and $150k to first place. They are also offering a $180 game with $40k guaranteed ($10k to first), a $33 option with $30k guaranteed and a plethora of lower buy-in options as well.
Before we dive into the action for Week 2 and the Thursday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals, let's offer a quick insight into how showdown games work.
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
There are quite a few ways to build lineups that are different from what the overall "chalk" will be (popular choices by other players). So creating a lineup that's different than others isn't a tough task, especially considering the potential to use kickers and defenses.
I'll be breaking down a few optimal lineups, which include a variety of players in the captain spot, as well as the options I'll be targeting. Before diving into that, though, I'm first going to hit on showdown strategy for this week's game. Every week, the strategy will be different, as the approach to captain spots will vary depending on the game itself.
DraftKings Showdown Strategy for Ravens vs. Bengals
The captain spot can be a big differentiator if you use the right player. While often times using a less-expensive player seems appealing so you can potentially fit in two or three stars, that decision depends on the specific game.
I'd recommend picking 3-4 players you would consider for the captain spot, including both expensive and cheaper options. From there, you can spread those players across multiple lineups.
Here's a look at the options I'll be targeting at captain (with captain pricing of 1x more):
– Joe Mixon: $14,700
– A.J. Green: $15,600
– Javorius Allen: $8,100
– Justin Tucker: $6,300
– Bengals DST: $4,800
– Nick Boyle: $3,300
Favorite expensive captains: Joe Mixon, A.J. Green
Top value-saving captain: Bengals DST
I'm going to break down a few of my top optimal lineups that feature both cheaper options as captains, as well as expensive plays. I'll explain the reasoning behind each play (including captain choices) in each lineup.
Potential Chalk Lineup
CAPTAIN: Joe Mixon $14,700
– Andy Dalton $10,800
– A.J. Green $10,400
– Willie Snead $5,600
– Javorius Allen $5,400
– Nick Boyle $2,200
While this lineup leaves $900 in salary, the only name that likely won't jump out as a player heavily owned is Boyle. The other five names are going to have high ownership for good reason. I'm personally holding out hope that fantasy players flock to Alex Collins after the Ravens ruled Kenneth Dixon out for the game.
We'll start at the top with Joe Mixon, who's work-horse running back role and ability to catch passes make him a no-brainer choice in the captain spot. He'll almost certainly be the highest-owned player on the Thursday night slate coming off a Week 1 game in which he totaled 95 rushing yards, 54 receiving yards and scored one touchdown.
A.J. Green has posted solid numbers over his career against the Ravens. He's averaged 4.8 receptions and 81.7 receiving yards over 10 games while scoring six touchdowns, per StatMuse. The numbers aren't mind-blowing, but Green in a primetime matchup on national television has more than enough upside to get me excited about the potential for a huge game.
The numbers Andy Dalton has posted against the Ravens aren't great, but I expect this be a pretty low-scoring game. Dalton averages 245.6 yards per game against the Ravens in his career (13 games) and has thrown 15 touchdowns against 17 interceptions. If he tops 250 yards and tosses two scores then he'll likely be one of the highest-scoring players on this slate.
My choice on Willie Snead really came down to two things. The first was that he tied for a team-high in targets during Week 1 with six, and totaled four catches for 49 yards and one touchdown. Essentially, he's safe, reliable and seems to have built a rapport with Joe Flacco. The second is that he filled in the final spot on my lineup and covers me in terms of having a player who's pretty safe and has the potential to find the end zone.
I'm hoping a lot of people roll out Alex Collins over Javorius Allen. The reason I'm doing the opposite is pretty simple. While Collins only had seven rushing attempts last week, the fact he fumbled early and immediately got benched for a stint is somewhat concerning. Beyond that, Allen has an exceptional matchup as a pass-catching back, considering the Bengals gave up 10 receptions to running backs in Week 1. Allen also hauled in five passes last week (although it was only for 15 yards) and finished with more yards on fewer carries than his counterpart.
And finally, the incredibly cheap Nick Boyle, who's holding down the role of pass-catching tight end until rookie first-round pick Hayden Hurst returns. He's not a "sexy" pick, but at $2,200 in a game which will likely feature very little offense, I'll take a player who tied for the team-high in targets (six) and caught three passes for 40 yards in a Week 1 blowout. It's also worth noting that the Bengals were picked apart by tight ends last week, allowing 12 catches for 124 yards and one TD.
Boyle may have some competition for playing time from other tight ends, but as Football Outsiders shows, he played 68 percent of the team's offensive snaps, so I feel fine about it.
*All statistics for player vs. team courtesy of StatMuse.
Lineup Loaded With Upside
CAPTAIN: Bengals DST $4,800
– Andy Dalton $10,800
– A.J. Green $10,400
– Joe Mixon $9,800
– Michael Crabtree $8,400
– Javorius Allen $5,400
The Bengals defense is solid, and I think they'll be amped up playing at home on national television. While they gave up 23 points to Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts (in his first game back), they still managed to score 12 fantasy points on DraftKings. Factoring in the 1.5x multiplier, and the Bengals defense could be a great play for a low price.
Oh, and the most important factor in all of this is Flacco's career numbers against the Bengals. Over 19 games, the Ravens quarterback has thrown a total of 19 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, and averaged 203.2 yards per game, per StatMuse.
I'll happily take a hungry defense against a quarterback averaging over one interception per game in his career against them. Last season alone, Flacco's best game against the Bengals featured him completing 53.2 percent of his passes for 203 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. In the second matchup between the two teams, the Ravens signal-caller completed 9-of-17 passes for 121 yards, one touchdown, and one interception.
I'm not pushing to use Andy Dalton here in multiple spots, but I think he's pretty safe. I'm not sure exactly how high his ceiling is, but I can absolutely see him and Green linking up over the top for a long touchdown or two.
Most importantly, stacking Dalton with his top wideout and/or Mixon allows you for the double points if he tosses one of the two a touchdown.
My Javorius Allen pick will be featured in the bulk of lineups, although I'm fine not using him everywhere. I do believe the young pass-catching running back should be in your captain spot a few times, though, considering the potential workload he could have. Plus, if Flacco struggles to hit receivers, Allen will see more dump-offs than he'll know what to do with.
I'm intrigued by Michael Crabtree, but at the same time, remain curious as to what his actual ceiling is. The former Oakland Raiders wideout caught three passes for 38 yards and one touchdown last week but tied for the team-high in targets with six. Flacco spread the ball around so much it was tough to gauge how Crabtree's role will look in a game that doesn't feature a final score of 47-3.
Regardless, his upside and the $8,400 price tag puts him in play. Based on the fact that Snead and John Brown had more yards last week, I think we may be able to land Crabtree at a bit of a discount in terms of his ownership. It's tough to say, but since the Ravens have multiple receivers worth playing, there's actually a chance their most talented option is the lowest owned.
*All statistics for player vs. team courtesy of StatMuse.
Captain Joe Mixon – No. 2
CAPTAIN: Joe Mixon $14,700
– A.J. Green $10,400
– Alex Collins $9,000
– John Brown $6,600
– Javorius Allen $5,400
– Bengals DST $3,200
Before going any further, I'll clear up the topic surrounding Javorius Allen – he's going to be in the bulk of my lineups. If loading up in the 150-max games, he'd probably be in around 70-80 percent of my lineups. The main reason is due to his floor as a pass-catcher paired with the fact that he's incredibly cheap, so using him opens everything else up.
This is the first time I used two other players in my showdown lineups as well. While I won't go over the top forcing Alex Collins or John Brown into lineups, I'm fine scattering them both into the mix for a few reasons.
When it comes to Collins, there's a very real reason to believe this game doesn't feature a ton of success through the air. The script can completely flip at any time, but we can't predict that, and simply have to go off the information we have. While Collins did fall flat last week with seven rushes for 13 yards and one touchdown (which saved his day), the game flow and Dixon's injury could allow him to see 12-14 carries.
More importantly than anything here, I believe Collins' ownership is going to be somewhat low due to his $9,000 price tag. In turn, if we can see him rush for 60 yards and one or two touchdowns (one is realistic) at low ownership, then we get an edge on the field. I'll only use Collins probably 5-10 percent of my lineups, but he's worth getting in a few spots just to be safe. Plus, using Collins and Allen in the same lineup will be a unique approach.
I actually like Brown quite a bit as a player and a fit in the Ravens offense. I think he provides a great deep threat for Flacco, and as we saw last week he can be a red zone target as well potentially. My biggest reason for using Brown here over Snead is the upside. While Snead provides me safety and reliability in other lineups, I want to get a player like Brown with big-play ability in a few lineups.
Since I'm building this optimal lineup around a group of players with upside, Brown and Collins are intriguing options to pair with big names like Joe Mixon and A.J. Green.
One final thought on group three Ravens offensive players with the Bengals defense involves an expectation for how the game may play out. According to Odds Shark, the line on the Thursday Night Football matchup opened with Baltimore favored by three and has moved to a pick or Cincinnati even favored in some spots. If the Bengals defense makes big plays early, we're going to get a lot of work from Allen and Brown as the game rolls on, while Collins would still have touchdown-upside. This lineup has some risk involved, but it's risk worth taking.
*All statistics for player vs. team courtesy of StatMuse.
The Javorius Allen & Kicking Lineup
CAPTAIN: Javorius Allen $8,100
– Andy Dalton $10,800
– A.J. Green $10,400
– Joe Mixon $9,800
– John Brown $6,600
– Justin Tucker $4,200
If I'm betting on this game featuring the two quarterbacks having some struggles at times, why not roll out a kicker? Especially one with a big leg like Justin Tucker.
Kickers will almost always garnish a low ownership, and if things start out like a typical Ravens-Bengals game, we could easily see one team nail a few field goals early and the first half end with something like a 14-9 or 9-7 score. I'm just hoping a potential three field goal first half comes on the Ravens side.
Tucker managed to score 12 DraftKings points in Week 1 against the Bills, although five of them came on extra points (along with two field goals). I don't think it's outlandish to predict 2-3 field goals once again from Tucker, and if we can get a long one, then we'll be sitting pretty. I'm also not opposed to considering using Tucker in the captain spot a few times.
Obviously, with all the love I've sent in the direction of Allen, it shouldn't be surprising he found his way into the captain spot in one of my optimal lineups. I just can't overlook the pass-catching and heavy workload the Ravens running back will likely receive. Using him as a captain in a few spots makes too much sense, especially since his lower price allows you to fit in multiple other intriguing plays.
I also went back to the Dalton-Green-Mixon stack. Personally, I'm just high on Green in a primetime spot to find the end zone, which obviously benefits Dalton. The Mixon play is a lock and load for me based on workload and I'm just going to eat the chalk here and expect that everyone is going to use him. You can fade him in a few spots, but it could certainly prove risky, or wind up being a bold and beautiful move.
And then we go back to Brown, who I'm touting as the upside play. If I'm going to use a kicker like Tucker who has some level of a capped ceiling, I want the upside with him. Using Brown over someone like Snead here makes sense and overall, it's probably the smartest route to approach this type of lineup.
There are obviously plenty of ways to build around an expensive core in this game. Personally, my core will feature the Bengals top-two offensive weapons in Green and Mixon. From there, I'll build various lineups by mixing and matching the other players I've mentioned.
One name I didn't use here was Flacco, and while he's been pretty bad against the Bengals, I'll use him a bit to cover my bases. As ESPN's Adam Schefter revealed, Flacco has been brutally bad specifically when playing in Cincinnati, posting a 3-6 record with a 34.7 QBR. Even diving a bit further than that, he's thrown just six touchdowns along with 13 interceptions and has been sacked 16 times, per StatMuse. I'm not going to force Flacco into lineups, but he'll have low ownership.
*All statistics for player vs. team courtesy of StatMuse.
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