There is no better way to start the fantasy season than by winning Week 1. The best way to win Week 1 is to be prepared by setting the best possible lineup with the players on your team, and I am here to help you do just that with our weekly "Start-Sit" article.
This weekly feature is going to avoid giving you the obvious advice, and focus more on mid-tier options each week.
If you have players like Todd Gurley, Odell Beckham Jr., David Johnson and Aaron Rodgers, you are going to put them in your starting lineup every week. While you will always start your studs, we are here to go over players who are fringe starters each week. These are the lineup decisions that are less clear, and I try to provide starting options for players who have similar values.
My base for lineup decisions comes from a question ESPN fantasy analyst Matthew Berry often asks fantasy owners to consider. What is most likely to happen? There are going to be times when a relatively unknown wide receiver outscores Julio Jones. Most weeks, Jones is going to outscore this same receiver along with many others, which is why he should be locked into your lineup every week.
Case Keenum might outscore Tom Brady in Week 2, but most weeks Brady is going to be the no-brainer start for your team. If you are considering two different players, consider what the most likely outcome will be. Football can be an unpredictable sport, but if you can narrow down what is most likely to happen based on data and past performance, it can help you sleep a lot easier at night once your lineup is set. There will be some weeks where a player sitting on your bench will outscore a starter, but if you hold to asking yourself this simple question, you are going to make the right lineup decision more times than not.
While I have tried to make this clear in each player's write-up, it is worth emphasizing that I am not suggesting you release players just because they are on my sit list for Week 1. Early in the season, I recommend not starting certain players based on unknowns such as a new offense, or the team bringing in competition at the position.
If you leave them on your bench and they do well, this is still good news as it means your team is deeper than you originally thought. For Week 1, I'd rather lean on players whose role is clearly defined whenever this is possible.
It is impossible to outline every single lineup decision here, but I am always happy to answer specific fantasy questions on Twitter @JonDAdams. These interactions also help me highlight players in future weeks as it shows me who readers are most curious about. Click the next arrow to see my fantasy football predictions for Week 1 in this week's edition of Start-Sit.
Start: RB Chris Carson, Seahawks. Sit: RB Alfred Morris/Matt Breida, 49ers
If you followed our advice, you locked up the 49ers backfield late in fantasy drafts after the unfortunate Jerick McKinnon injury.
Now, I am here to tell you to keep them on your bench, at least for Week 1. The biggest reason is the uncertainty of how the carries will be distributed. While I believe Alfred Morris is going to get more touches than Matt Breida, it would not be shocking if the opposite is true. Hopefully, you have both running backs on your roster, but hold them tight on your bench this week.
Before you insert them into your starting lineup, let's take a week to see how the 49ers are going to use the running backs. After his injury, McKinnon spoke about both running backs sharing the workload.
“I think they will work really well together,” McKinnon told the Press Democrat. “They’re two different backs and they both have a lot of upside. Coach Shanahan and the rest of the coaches, they do a great job of putting us in positions to be successful. That’s going to continue to happen.”
Don't drop either running back, just let it ride for a week as we see Kyle Shanahan's game plan for the two backs. A running back I do like this week is the Seahawks Chris Carson. While Rashad Penny is expected to return this week, Carson got the majority of the carries for the Seahawks during training camp and pre-season. Look for Carson to be the Seahawks workhorse back, at least for the start of the season. Pete Carroll called Carson the "star of the off-season."
“He had a phenomenal offseason,” Carroll explained to USA Today. “He was really the star of the offseason in that he was just so fit, so strong and so explosive from the moment we got back.”
Another running back I like this week over either of the 49ers running backs is Tevin Coleman. I had the opportunity to attend several Falcons training camp practices, and Coleman is going to get carries this season as long as he can stay healthy. As the Falcons website points out, Coleman has a strong track record against the Eagles.
"In his previous two matchups against the Eagles, Coleman has totaled 30 rushes for 159 yards, including eight first downs, and one catch for 14 yards," AtlantaFalcons.com reports. "The former Hoosier’s 5.3 yards per carry is the highest average in Falcons history against the Eagles with a minimum of 25 carries. In the divisional-round matchup back in January, Coleman recorded 10 rushes for 79 yards and will be looking to top that and help the Falcons seal the win this time around."
Start: QB Blake Bortles, Jaguars. Sit: QB Matt Ryan, Falcons
If you are one of the fantasy owners that have Matt Ryan as the only quarterback on your roster, I am not telling you to drop him. It is to say that you should not expect a big Week 1 performance from the Falcons quarterback for a few different reasons. This off-season, the Eagles added to an already loaded defensive line with the signings of Michael Bennett and Haloti Ngata.
The last time these two teams met, the Eagles knocked the Falcons out of the playoffs as Atlanta only managed to score 10 points. Ryan threw for 210 yards and a touchdown, not numbers that is going to help you win your fantasy week.
Questions continue to surround the Falcons offense under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. The last time Ryan scored 20 or more fantasy points was back in Week 11 of 2017.
Atlanta made red zone work the offensive priority during training camp, but there has been no evidence in the preseason that things are improving. If you have another quarterback on your roster, this is the week to start them.
One name to think about is Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles. He finished last season with 22 or more fantasy points in five of his last six games.
Jacksonville also has a group of talented young receivers who are flying under the radar along with new edition Donte Moncrief. This marks Bortles first off-season with the same offensive coordinator, meaning 2018 is the first time he has played in the same offense for two full consecutive seasons. Leonard Fournette came into camp slimmed down after a strong rookie season. The Jaguars also signed Bortles to a contract extension, showing their confidence in the quarterback. Bortles spoke about his grasp of the offense over the off-season.
“When we started last year, it was kind of an elementary level, in terms of ‘I’m hearing the play, I’m thinking about the footwork I have to take, the identification, trying to remember what routes guys are running and all that,'" Bortles explained to Fansided. "Now, I think I’m kind of owning the offense and having a better understanding of it. Obviously, it is a continuous study and a continuous grind to continue to master it and stay on top of it, but I definitely feel more comfortable with it.”
Bortles gets a nice matchup against the Giants to start the season. New York gave up the fifth most points to opposing teams last season.
Only the Buccaneers gave up more passing yards than the Giants last season. In addition to Bortles, here are a few more quarterbacks who were drafted in Ryan's range that I like better than the Falcons quarterback this week: Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota and Andy Dalton.
Start: TE David Njoku, Browns. Sit: TE Jack Doyle, Colts
It has been over a year since we have seen Andrew Luck play significant football. With that in mind, it is hard to know exactly what the Colts offense is going to look like. Aside from T.Y. Hilton, the Colts other offensive weapons are question marks. Jack Doyle is the most consistent Colts tight end option, but I would avoid starting him in Week 1 until we see what the Colts offense looks with Luck back at the helm.
The Colts also signed Eric Ebron over the off-season, and he has been getting solid reviews from the Colts over the off-season. At the very least, Ebron is likely going to eat into Doyle's targets, and there is even a chance Ebron challenges Doyle for the job by the end of the season.
Not only does this week mark the return of Luck, but it is also the beginning of the Frank Reich era with the Colts. The coach brings with him a brand new offense to Indianapolis, making it hard to predict Week 1 from a fantasy perspective. Reich is planning on juggling head coaching duties with offensive play-calling, and Luck seems to be a big fan of the new offense.
“Having a head coach call plays is neat,” Luck told the Indianapolis Star. “He is a great communicator. ... He does a great job letting us understand the why. Teaching us why we are running a certain thing. I think when you understand an offense, as a player, you are going to buy in.”
Doyle and/or Ebron may prove to be fantasy relevant, but I am not starting either until we know which tight end is going to get the majority of Luck's targets. Browns tight end David Njoku is someone I am bullish on for this season. Njoku is entering his second NFL season, and should see a major uptick in production with Tyrod Taylor under center. The young tight end has flashed in the pre-season, and the entire Browns offense should be better with the weapons the team added this summer.
SB Nation's Christian D'Andrea did a great job explaining how Taylor increased tight end Charles Clay's value with the Bills, and how he could do the same with Njoku.
"Taylor’s reliance on Charles Clay in Buffalo was a showcase of what he can do with a pass-catching tight end," D'Andrea explains. "Clay had more receiving yards than anyone on the Bills in 2017 and finished in the top two in team receptions the previous two seasons. Even as the team’s passing output went down, Taylor’s reliance on his No. 1 tight end increased: Clay is a quality player who developed from Tulsa H-back into an above-average NFL tight end. He doesn’t have the pure athleticism or ceiling Njoku, a former high school national high jump champion, brings to the table. With an elite burst off the line, lightning-quick cuts in space, and springs for legs, Njoku has the chops to be one of the league’s top targets."
Start Njoku with confidence this week, and he is likely going to be a TE1 the rest of the way. Be cautious of the Colts tight ends, until we see them in action.
Start: WR Cole Beasley, Cowboys. Sit: WR Randall Cobb, Packers
Little is certain about the Packers wide receivers outside of Davante Adams. For the first time in recent memory, Aaron Rodgers complained about his receivers over the off-season. There were rumors the Packers were looking to either cut or trade Cobb. The Packers receiver ended up surviving training camp, but I do not have any confidence in putting Cobb in my lineups. Geronimo Allison is the second Packers wide receiver to own.
Green Bay also kept three rookie wide receivers on their final roster: J'Mon Moore, Equanimeous St. Brown and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Athletic's Michael Lombardi reported that the Packers made the entire league aware that Cobb was available. Cobb is still worth sitting on your bench, but is being over-drafted with an ADP of 99, per Fantasy Pros.
As for a replacement for Cobb, look at Cowboys wide receiver Cole Beasley. The Cowboys receiver is a sleeper for this season, and has long been Dak Prescott's favorite target. Now that Dez Bryant is out of the picture, I expect Beasley to emerge as the Cowboys WR1 this season. Beasley's been dinged up this pre-season, which has caused him to be under-drafted in most leagues. Rookie wide receiver Michael Gallup has gotten a lot of well-deserved praise during the pre-season, but Beasley offers the best value of the Cowboys receivers. Beasley delivered a message to fans via Michael Irvin about the state of the Dallas wide receiver room.
"Cole Beasley told me to tell everybody," Irvin said on NFL Network. "He said, Michael, I know everybody is wondering what we will be doing at the wide-receiver position. But I guarantee you we will shock people."
After the first few weeks, we will have a better sense of the Cowboys passing game. My sense is Beasley is going to have his best season yet. Like the entire Dallas offense, Beasley regressed last season. Look for him to return to his 2016 form with Ezekiel Elliott back in the fold along with Bryant no longer being on the team. According to FFToday, Beasley averaged 11.8 fantasy points in PPR leagues back in 2016. He had nine games with double-digit fantasy points in PPR leagues in 2016 as well.
All that to say, it is not time to drop Cobb, but I would not put him in my lineup until the Packers prove he is not going to be replaced in the offense by some of the younger options. Pick up Beasley in leagues where he is available.
Start: New Orleans Saints DST (vs. Bucs). Sit: Houston Texans DST (vs. Patriots)
The Houston Texans have traditionally been one of the strongest DST's in fantasy, but I would bench them this week. I'm not a huge proponent of carrying two DST's, so you could take your chances in starting them. However, there are probably better options on the waiver wire.
One veteran move is to drop them Sunday morning after most leagues have their waiver wires lock. This prevents other teams from picking them up until you also have a chance to put a claim in for them when the Week 2 waiver wire runs.
Facing the Patriots offense in Foxborough is far from an ideal matchup. New England had a dysfunctional off-season, losing several of their main offensive weapons. As long as Bill Belichick is with the Patriots it does not matter, as the Patriots can still exploit their opponent. ESPN's Matt Hasselbeck explains why New England is so difficult to play.
“They can find matchups where guys are in man-to-man coverage, and it’s a guy who doesn’t spend the majority of his day doing defensive back drills,” Hasselbeck told the Boston Globe. “They’re going to find you with formations, shifts, motions, audibles. Whoever the right guy is, they’re going to find you. They did it in the Saints game. They put Burkhead in space and immediately hit him for a touchdown.”
If you are looking for another DST to stream this week, look no further than the New Orleans Saints. Until they prove otherwise, you likely can win your DST matchup most weeks by streaming the Bucs opponent. This week it happens to be the Saints, and there is reason to think New Orleans can be a top 10 DST for Week 1.
Jameis Winston is suspended for the first three games of the season, which means it is the Ryan Fitzpatrick show early in Tampa. Outside of Mike Evans, the Bucs have few offensive weapons. Tampa Bay drafted Ronald Jones early in the second round with thoughts of the former USC running back being their bell cow, but Jones struggled mightily in the pre-season. His last outing he had more carries than yards, which is never a good sign.
New Orleans made a few off-season additions to improve their defense. Defensive end Alex Okafor gives the Saints another weapon off the edge to throw at Fitzpatrick and other opponents. The Saints also added Patrick Robinson and Kurt Coleman to improve their secondary. Even if we did not have much faith in the Saints defensive abilities, it helps when Drew Brees and company are on the other side of the ball. Look for the Saints offense to be one of the top units in the league as Alvin Kamara enters his second season, and rookie wide receiver Tre'Quan Smith is expected to contribute right away.
If the Saints are not available in your league, here are a few more DST streaming options that are good bets for Week 1: Ravens (vs. Bills), Lions (vs. Jets), Panthers (vs. Cowboys) and Titans (vs. Dolphins).
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 1 Predictions