With two weeks of the NFL season in the books, we are finally getting some data to help us make better fantasy football decisions. Heading into the season, player rankings and projections are based on how we think they will be utilized in 2018. While it is important not to overreact, there is enough of a sample size to begin adjusting our expectations of certain players.
Whether you are 2-0 or 0-2, there is still plenty of time left in the season for things to change. Your waiver moves combined with lineup decisions will have a big impact on whether your team can contend for a fantasy championship. Before we go over some specific lineup decisions, here are a few matchups to target heading into Week 3. If you are deciding between two different players, here are some teams expected to put up points this week.
The Rams and Chiefs Offenses Are a Fantasy Dream
The Vikings host the Bills, the same team that had one of their defensive players retire at halftime. Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense should take advantage of a Bills team that is on the ropes. The Chiefs and Rams players are becoming must-starts regardless of who they play. Both offenses have been so explosive through two games that multiple skill position players have become fantasy relevant.
Atlanta and New Orleans square off in an NFC South rivalry matchup. Look for this to be a shootout, making the top Falcons and Saints players starts this week. The Bears take on a dreadful Cardinals team, and seem to have momentum on their side. Give strong consideration to Bears running backs, wide receivers and tight ends this week. The new Bears offense is only going to continue to be more and more fantasy relevant thanks to the creativity of head coach Matt Nagy and offensive coordinator Mark Helfrich.
Call me crazy, but I think the Bucs keep the FitzMagic going on Monday Night Football against a Steelers team that is trending in the wrong direction. Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard could all have great weeks again. On the flip side, there are a few matchups that will be challenging. You should still start your studs, but temper your expectations if they are in one of these difficult matchups.
The Jets and Browns Thursday Night Football matchup is likely going to be a low-scoring affair. Offenses often struggle with the quick turnaround, and neither team has a particularly prolific offense (aside from the Jets opener against the Lions). The Bills are on the road against the Vikings, so don't look for this to be the week for their offense to get back on track. Oakland faces an underrated Miami defense that likely will push down fantasy production for most Raiders players.
If you have a specific lineup or fantasy football question, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @JonDAdams. We try to highlight the best lineup decisions each week, but are unable to get to all the difficult questions. Click the next button to see my Start/Sit fantasy predictions for Week 3.
Start: QB Matt Ryan vs. Saints
Sit: QB Philip Rivers vs. Rams
Falcons fans spent a week and a half bemoaning Atlanta's red zone offense after another poor outing against the Eagles. The fear was Atlanta's offense had not progressed at all despite spending the entire offseason working on red zone production. Matt Ryan and the Falcons had 100 percent efficiency against the Panthers. There is reason to think the Falcons offense has finally turned the corner under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian. If so, Ryan is back to being a fantasy relevant quarterback, and he did so by spreading the ball around to a number of receivers.
Ryan is a start this week against the Saints, but it is not because we expect the Falcons quarterback to achieve two rushing touchdowns. Ryan does face a Saints defense that is much worse than the Panthers, and the Falcons offense heads into Week 3 with momentum on their side. Ryan only missed on five passes as he was 23-of-28 for 272 yards and two passing touchdowns to go with his two rushing TD's. Eight different Falcons receivers had at least one reception. After the Falcons big win over the Panthers, Julio Jones explained why the offense looked so different than in Week 1.
"Now you see today, everybody just do your job. We don't need to overthink this thing," Jones told ESPN. "We don't need to make up things. We don't need new plays. We don't need none of that. Let's go out here and just take what they give us. They played three-over-two to me and [Mohamed] Sanu to the left side, even though we had one-on-one backside. Calvin, touchdown. Hoop, touchdown. I mean, it's really simple for us down there, because we have a lot of talent on this team and everybody can make plays."
Philip Rivers Faces a Difficult Matchup Against the Rams
If you are like me, you are streaming quarterbacks in some of your leagues. Like many fantasy owners, I picked up Philip Rivers for Week 2, which worked out as the Chargers quarterback threw for 256 yards and three touchdowns. It may be time to drop him this week as the Chargers square off with the Rams. It is not a good matchup against a Rams defense that has been punishing opposing offenses. The Rams defense may be the best unit in the NFL, and I am not taking any chances with so many other great quarterback options on the waiver wire.
“I can’t remember a time I’ve seen a defense play that complete from whistle to whistle," McVay told TheRams.com. "From first quarter to the fourth quarter, they did an excellent job. And that offense has some good players. “So to be able to hold those guys is a real credit to our defensive coaching staff, to our players for their execution, and what a phenomenal job by them today.”
If Ryan is not available in your league, here are a few quarterbacks to consider picking up for this week: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.
Start: WR Keelan Cole vs. Titans
Sit: WR Kenny Stills vs. Raiders
Keelan Cole introduced himself to the world thanks to an OBJ-like catch against the Patriots. Cole has quietly been one of the more underrated wide receivers in the league and showed it with seven receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown against New England. Cole looks to be the Jaguars top receiver this season and has WR2/WR3 potential the rest of the way. Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone noted the catch against the Patriots was not an anomaly.
“I’m like everyone else. You go, ‘Wow,'” Marrone told Fox Sports. “But he has made those catches in training camp. He has done that before. … You look around the league and you’ll see other players that do great things like that or make these (plays). You tip your hat and acknowledge it and go, ‘Wow, that was a hell of a play.’ It was a hell of a play.”
Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles has a lot of confidence in Cole and thinks there could be more catches like this to come.
"He does stuff like that all the time in practice and kind of just showing off," Bortles explained to Merced Sun-Star. "He's got unbelievable abilities, so to watch him go out there, have fun and make plays like that is pretty special."
Look for Cole to have another solid outing against the Titans, but I am not as optimistic about another wide receiver within the state of Florida.
Kenny Stills Is Going to Be Boom or Bust in Fantasy
Kenny Stills is owned in most leagues thanks to his massive Week 1 performance. Stills had just two receptions for 17 yards last week against the Jets. Despite being heavily owned, Stills only has a total of six receptions this season. There are going to be weeks where Stills is startable, but you are not going to know when these weeks are going to be until after the game is played. Stills is a typical boom or bust fantasy option, which makes him a much better DFS tournament play than someone you want in your lineup on a weekly basis.
It sounds like DeVante Parker is close to being back on the field for the Dolphins, which could end up taking targets away from Stills. Miami head coach Adam Gase explained the team opted to hold Parker out for Week 2 for precautionary reasons.
“He could have played,” Gase told the USA Today. “I told him that he was going to be inactive. We went through the week … We weren’t really sure how it was going to go when we started the week, with once we got into actual contact periods where he had a defender hitting down on his arms and possibly his hand. So we kind of took that slow. By the end of the week … He did a good job. He did everything we asked him to do. It looked like everything was going smooth, but there’s a lot of moving parts to this thing. I explained that to him. I also wanted to … It’s a time thing with him as far as being healed and closer to 100 percent, so one more week wasn’t going to be a bad thing.”
Start: RB Tevin Coleman vs. Saints
Sit: RB LeSean McCoy at Vikings
Since covering a few of the Falcons training camp practices, I have been telling fantasy owners to prioritize Tevin Coleman, and he showed why in Week 2 against a solid Panthers defense. Coleman averaged 6.7 yards per carry and rushed for 107 yards. Coleman was also active in the passing game. This week, Coleman and the Falcons have an even better matchup against the Saints defense. After the game, Matt Ryan spoke about the team having a lot of confidence in Coleman with Devonta Freeman out.
"Well, to me, it starts up front," Ryan told ESPN. "Our offensive line did an excellent job both in the run game and in the pass game. But Tevin, when he got his opportunity, obviously with Devonta Freeman being down, you never want to have that happen, but we're so fortunate to have two explosive backs, guys that can carry the load for us, and he did a great job today...I mean, he got what we blocked for and more. I mean, his ability to break guys off, double people up and keep runs going, and knife runs at the end, get low and get those extra yards, it was impressive to watch."
Coleman was fantasy relevant despite not scoring a touchdown. Ryan scored two rushing touchdowns, and chances are those TD's are going to go to Coleman more times than not with Freeman out. Coleman has RB1 upside this week against the Saints, and I am starting him with confidence.
You Should Be Worried About LeSean McCoy
If you have LeSean McCoy on your roster, I am going to save you a lot of headache by telling you to sit him this week. McCoy is battling through a rib injury, so his playing status is likely to be uncertain until gameday. According to NFL.com, McCoy did not suffer fractured ribs, and is going to try to play through the injury. Even if McCoy was not injured, he has a very difficult matchup this week against the Vikings.
There are multiple reasons not to have confidence in McCoy with the injury combined with his matchup, and it is best to leave him on your bench for this week. Through two games, McCoy has rushed for just 61 yards and is averaging 3.8 yards per carry. The Bills offense as a whole looks dreadful, and the team is so bad players are retiring at halftime. Head coach Sean McDermott took over play-calling duties at halftime showing that even he does not have confidence in the direction of the offense.
“Yes, in the second half I did,” McDermott told BuffaloBills.com. “I just felt like we needed a spark. That’s my background. Coach (Leslie) Frazier does a really good job as well as the defensive staff. I just felt like we needed a spark...We’re going to evaluate that as well as a lot of other things we do,”
McCoy's fantasy outlook for the rest of the season looks bleak, but you should ride it out given you are unlikely to get a lot back in return for the Bills running back in a trade.
Start: TE Trey Burton at Cardinals
Sit: TE Jared Cook at Dolphins
It has been a slow start for Trey Burton this season, but things are looking up for the Bears tight end as they face the Cardinals. Arizona looks like one of the worst teams in the league, and Burton is due for his best game yet. Fantasy owners were saved in Week 2 with a sweet shovel pass that allowed Burton to score a touchdown against the Seahawks. Bears quarterback Mitch Trubisky explained what he saw on the play that helped Burton score the TD.
“The defensive end got width, and it’s an easy shovel pass to Trey,” Trubisky told the Chicago Tribune. “So, great design by Coach and the staff. … I don’t think they saw it coming.”
According to Rotoworld, the Cardinals have surrendered a touchdown to a tight end in each of their first two games. Look for Burton to keep this streak alive by finding the end zone in Week 3. As the players get more comfortable in Matt Nagy's new offense, opportunities should continue to open up for Burton to be utilized more. Nagy admitted after their big win over the Seahawks that the offense is just getting started.
“This is going to be fun,” Nagy explained to the Chicago Tribune. “I’m excited for our future together. I’m excited for this offense to continue figuring out how to build this identity. Hopefully, you’re going to see that each game, it’s going to subtly get better and better.”
Jared Cook Faces a Dolphins Defense That Has Been One of the Best in the NFL
You can only go down when you have 180 receiving yards in Week 1. Jared Cook followed up a stellar Week 1 performance with four receptions for 49 yards last week which seems closer to reality. The Raiders want to get Amari Cooper the ball and succeeded in doing this in Week 2. When this happens, the targets have to come from somewhere, and Cook's numbers went down drastically. Cook is still going to be a TE1 this season, but the Dolphins defense has been one of the best units in the league.
According to the Miami Herald, the Dolphins have transformed from allowing quarterbacks to average the highest passing rating last year at 94.8 to the lowest this season at 56.6. Miami has already forced six turnovers which is the third most takeaways in the NFL. Former Alabama safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is already making his presence felt and is working with the Dolphins veterans to make this one of the top defenses in the league.
“It’s a total team effort,” safety Reshad Jones told the Miami Herald. “We have one of the best front sevens in football. We got a chance to be one of the best secondaries in all of football. I have to give credit to the front men; they’re playing lights out, making our job easy.”
Overall, it is not a great matchup for Cook, but he should be a solid start moving forward. Just don't expect him to get the kind of targets he saw against the Rams in Week 1.
Start: RB Chris Thompson vs. Packers
Sit: RB Adrian Peterson vs. Packers
It is early in the season, but Chris Thompson has become a must-start in PPR leagues. Thompson's value also extends to standard leagues as well given the number of overall touches he is receiving. We may have underestimated how involved Thompson would be in the offense, and the impact Alex Smith would have on his fantasy value. Smith excels at short to intermediate throws making Thompson a prime target in the passing game. Thompson had more receptions in Week 2 than the majority of wide receivers across the league.
Thompson had 13 receptions for 92 yards against the Colts, but did struggle in the run game finishing with four carries for one yard. The previous week Thompson had five carries for 65 yards along with six receptions for 63 yards and a touchdown. Thompson has shown no signs of last year's injury impacting him this season.
“He's been incredible," Jay Gruden told ESPN. "You know, his work ethic to get back to where he was. I didn’t see any hesitancy whatsoever. He hit the hole hard. He was explosive. He was great in the pass game, both pass protection and in the routes. He just did what CT always does ….The ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, the mismatches he creates, the protection that he provides for the quarterback, the second-and-long runs, get-back-on-track runs -- he does a great job on.”
Adrian Peterson Could Be Hard to Know When to Start Going Forward
Adrian Peterson fell back to reality after his stellar Week 1 performance against the Cardinals. I don't doubt that better weeks are ahead for Peterson, but it is going to be hard to know from week to week when to put him in your lineup. The game script called for more passing plays as the Redskins played catchup. Peterson had 11 carries for just 20 yards against the Colts. Even in his Week 1 performance, Peterson averaged just 3.7 yards per carry.
Thompson looks to be the Washington running back you want to have on your roster. You have to wonder if Peterson struggles again if the Redskins turn to Thompson more in the running game making him even more valuable in fantasy. Peterson continues to insist he has a lot left in the tank and recently told ESPN he wants to play another three or four years.
"Three to four more years would be ideal," Peterson explained to ESPN. "Not to say it hasn't been done before, but not at a high level. So of course I plan on playing three to four more years, and I plan on playing those years at a high level as well."
For now, Thompson is the Redskins running back to put in your lineup and should produce in the RB2 range against the Packers.
Start: Bears DST at Cardinals
Sit: Chargers DST at Rams
With two solid performances on national television, the Bears are going to be a hot waiver wire commodity this week. At the time of this writing, the Chicago DST is available in more than 40 percent of ESPN Leagues. Khalil Mack is doing things that make him look like he would have been worth five first-round draft picks. Chicago faces a Cardinals offense that is one of the worst in the league.
Look for the Bears DST to put up double-digit fantasy points as they force the Cardinals into making mistakes. Chicago is back to looking like one of their signature defenses of old. Linebacker Danny Trevathan thinks the defense can get even better.
“That’s just a glimpse, man,” Trevathan explained to the Chicago Sun-Times. “We’re just getting started. We finally put together four quarters, although we could’ve done things a lot better. I know that’s how our defense feels because we’re always trying to get better. But it was a start, and we’re feeling good. We’re going to keep it rolling for sure."
The Cardinals have scored six points through two games, meaning Arizona only has a single touchdown this season. It is not going to get any better with a red-hot Bears defense coming into town. Through two games, Mack already has two sacks, two forced fumbles and an interception returned for a touchdown.
The Chargers DST Is Over-Owned in Fantasy
The Chargers are close to 90 percent owned in ESPN leagues, making them the most over-owned DST in fantasy. With Joey Bosa on the sideline, the fantasy production has taken a hit. The Chargers defense is droppable with the best offense in the NFL coming to town. The Rams scored 33 and 34 points in their first two games. Sean McVay is utilizing all of his receiving weapons, including new wide receiver Brandin Cooks. McVay explained that the Rams offense has been so potent because they have so many different players that can hurt opponents.
"I think what you see with our offense that we were really pleased with is the amount of guys they play for each other," McVay noted at his weekly press conference per Turf Show Times. "It’s an unselfish group. You watch the way those receivers block when they’re not part of the progression or if they’re having to do some different things we ask them to do. Whether it’s Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Brandin (Cooks). You watch the way the running backs were competing, tight ends. So, I think to answer your question, yes. It is important for us to spread the ball around and get everybody involved, but that wasn’t something that you’re thinking like, ‘Oh, we haven’t gotten them involved, so we have to do that at this point’.”
I'm not a proponent of carrying two defenses, and the Chargers have underperformed this season making them droppable. Even if they had strong production, you would not be starting the Chargers DST against the Rams.
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 3 Predictions