Getty Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
The NFL has given fans an elite Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 6 which pits Patrick Mahomes against Tom Brady under the lights. The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots have been two of the most talked-about teams this season, but for different reasons.
For the Chiefs, it’s been largely thanks to the superb play of their second-year quarterback, who’s thrown for 1,513 yards, 14 touchdowns and just two interceptions. Mahomes looks every bit like a legitimate MVP candidate, but facing off with the Patriots will be another tough test. After the Chiefs and Mahomes took down the NFL’s best defense in the Jacksonville Jaguars, they may now be facing a shootout with a future Hall-of-Famer.
Going to Foxborough and facing one of the NFL’s best in Brady and the Patriots is no joke, especially with New England seemingly hitting their stride after Week 5. Brady and the offense was a bit hit-or-miss through the air in the first four games, which was concerning. Fortunately, the return of wide receiver Julian Edelman from suspension helped propel the Patriots to a 38-point outing last week.
Let’s take a look at the odds and break down the best bet on the Chiefs vs. Patriots Sunday Night Football matchup.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Odds and Projected Total
The Patriots opened as favorites on their home field against the Chiefs. Here’s a look at the current odds and total, courtesy of Bovada:
- Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (-105)
- New England Patriots -3.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: 59 points
Interestingly, this line hasn’t moved off the 3.5 spread on any site, as OddsShark revealed. It did open with the Patriots at -3.5 and odds of -110, so the home team is getting a little love from bettors. The total on the game has moved some, though, and we’ve seen it slowly creep up eventually landing on the absurdly-high 59 points.
While a total of nearly 60 points is enough to scare many bettors into the under, it may be justified in this spot. Both the Chiefs (35) and Patriots (26.6) rank in the top 10 of the league in points scored per game.
Next up, I’ll break down the best bet on this game, which actually isn’t specifically on either the spread or total by itself.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Best Bet and Pick
As OddsShark revealed, the total has gone over in four of the Chiefs’ last five games on the road. Along with that, six of the last eight games between these two teams in New England have gone over the projected total. But with an over/under floating around 60, that’s not quite enough to sell me on the bet.
Instead, I’m going to go an alternate route here and roll with a teaser in what I believe will be a great option. If you play a 7-point teaser on the Chiefs and the over, it’s arguably one of the most appealing bets of the weekend.
Best bet: 7-point teaser on Chiefs +10.5 and over 52 (-140)
Game pick: Chiefs +3.5
I’m more than willing to eat the -140 here for this bet, as I love the Chiefs to remain within double-digits and possibly even win the game. The shift on the over/under may not seem like a huge deal, but it’s tough to envision not seeing this game finish with a score of at least something around 31-24 or more.
As far as the pick goes, I broke this down for those who like strictly betting on the spread. The Chiefs haven’t given us a reason to believe they can’t beat any team in the NFL. Regardless of whether it’s a shootout (42-37 road win over the Steelers), or tough defensive matchup (30-14 win against the Jaguars).
Facing Brady and the Patriots is no walk in the park, and while it’ll be close, I expect the Chiefs to either win this game or lose it by a very narrow margin.
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