Halloween has become synonymous with the College Football Playoff rankings for fans as the initial set of rankings are released during the holiday week. The first set of rankings will be revealed on Tuesday, October 30th at 7 p.m. Eastern. While we have not seen this year's rankings, historically the committee has tended to emphasize a few factors.
The first is quality of wins, what top teams have defeated the most impressive group of teams. Secondly, a team's strength of schedule matters, but it is worth noting that only a few of the projected top teams have great strength of schedules. This is a bit of a fluid metric as many of the top team's have difficult Novembers which will help their strength of schedule numbers improve by the time the committee makes their final rankings.
This is also a new committee group which means that past precedent matters, but each group tends to prioritize certain criteria each year. Here's how the College Football Playoff explains their metrics for evaluating teams.
"The four teams that go to the College Football Playoff are determined by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee," the College Football Playoff site notes. "The selection committee chooses the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results against common opponents, championships won and other factors."
How this plays out tends to vary a bit from year to year based on how the committee looks at these factors. It will be worth watching how this particular group evaluates this year's teams. After Alabama, the group of teams is a lot closer together when evaluating their resumes.
Fans Will Be Watching to See How the Committee Evaluates One-Loss Teams
There are several one-loss teams that are expected to start out high in the rankings. It will be interesting to see how a team like LSU with a strong strength of schedule is compared to Notre Dame who is undefeated. UCF owns the nation's longest winning streak, but there is some skepticism over how high the Knights will be ranked given the strength of schedule metric.
UCF's schedule does get a bit better in November with upcoming games against Cincinnati, Navy and USF. After UCF's resume was called into question on ESPN's College Gameday, UCF athletic director Danny White responded on Twitter to the criticism.
"College football has become a subjective popularity contest," White noted in the statement. "The Knights represent all of the teams who- for reasons of history, geography or politics- are left out of the club."
Click the next arrow to see my predictions for the order of the first edition of the 2018 College Football Playoff rankings. The AP Poll rankings heading into Week 9 are listed next to each team.
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (AP Poll: 1st)
No. 2 Clemson Tigers (AP Poll: 2nd)
There is still a lot of uncertainty within college football, but the one thing that is clear is Alabama is in a class by themselves so far this season. The quarterback controversy that Alabama started the season with is a thing of the past.
Tua Tagovailoa has proven he was clearly the right choice at quarterback. Tagovailoa has displayed the rare mix of playmaking ability combined with efficiency.
Things are about to get much more difficult for the Crimson Tide in November with LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn making up three of their final four opponents. This may be Nick Saban's best group of receivers he has had while at Alabama. Saban spoke about what makes the unit so dynamic.
"I think they have really good speed," Saban told 247 Sports. "I think all of those guys are really, really competitive. They have really good hands. We have a pretty good system that we've been able to utilize those things that they can make explosive plays. They all have ability to run after the catch. And I think that the quarterbacks have done a good job of getting them the ball when we have an opportunity to make those plays. They give them catchable balls and they've been able to finish plays and make a lot of big plays. Those guys have really good speed, they're good getting in and out of breaks. They've got good hands."
Clemson Could Cruise to the ACC Title Game
Clemson has not had a difficult schedule, and it does not get much better thanks to the decline of the ACC. The Tigers have played both Texas A&M and NC State who were ranked at the time, but have also played Furman and Georgia Southern. Boston College, Duke and South Carolina are the best teams remaining on their schedule. Clemson will be heavily favored in all three of these games.
Clemson has the No. 76 ranked strength of schedule in the S&P+, a number unlikely to make a significant rise based on their remaining schedule. It will be interesting to see how the committee factors Clemson's schedule into their evaluation of the team.
The Tigers have had their fair share of twists and turns this season. They started the season with Kelly Bryant as their starting quarterback who abruptly quit the team after Trevor Lawrence was named the starter.
Clemson's offense has been humming along with the true freshman under center. Another key to the Clemson offense has been running back Travis Etienne. Swinney elaborated on what makes him such a dynamic weapon.
"Yeah, well, he was a true freshman last year and to be honest we thought he would redshirt when he got here, but we figured out quickly in camp, whoa, this guy is really explosive," Swinney said per Tiger Net. "But just had so much to learn, and we had to pick our spots, especially early, how we used him. The biggest difference in him is obviously he's got experience. He kind of got thrown into the fire last year, and he had some good success, and he had some tough moments, too. So just that experience is certainly paying off for him this year, but more than anything, just the off-season, his ability to just get in that weight room and to develop his body."
No. 3 LSU Tigers (AP Poll: 4th)
No. 4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (AP Poll: 3rd)
The committee has shown a willingness to rank one-loss teams ahead of undefeated squads if the team has played a strong schedule. LSU fits that description thanks to a strength of schedule that ranks No. 2, by far the best of any contender. LSU's top wins include Auburn and Georgia.
The Tigers have a chance to have an even better resume if they can somehow pull off an upset against Alabama. The Crimson Tide will open as heavy favorites, but the Tigers have the advantage of playing a night game in Baton Rouge. LSU head coach Ed Orgeron admits Alabama is the target for the program.
"We gotta beat them to get where we want to go," Oregon explained to AL.com. "...[Alabama is] One of the highest levels I've ever seen in college football. Being coached great every day, they've got great players. They have No. 1 recruiting classes. They're what everybody aspires to be. You want to have a No. 1 recruiting class. You want national championships and win national championships and they're doing it."
Alabama has cruised through their opening schedule, and LSU will be the most difficult test they have faced this season. The Tigers will rely on their defense to try to steal an ugly win. All eyes will be on LSU quarterback Joe Burrow to see how he is able to handle the pressure of Alabama's defense.
The Committee Has a Difficult Decision to Make If Notre Dame Remains Undefeated
Notre Dame survived a scare against Pitt thanks to a late comeback that allowed them to head to their bye week remaining unbeaten. Notre Dame has a solid strength of schedule with wins over Michigan, Stanford and Virginia Tech. The S&P+ has Notre Dame ranked No. 47 in their strength of schedule metrics.
Michigan is the only top-level team on the Irish's schedule this season, but Notre Dame is still playing a group of good teams across the ACC, Big Ten and Pac-12. After the Irish's close victory against Pitt, quarterback Ian Book noted they were just pleased to get the victory.
"We had to stay calm," Book said per UND.com. "A win's a win and these football games happen. You know, there's no point in freaking out when you have some time on the clock, and we've been there before, you know, so we didn't want to make it a bigger deal than it was. I'm proud of the guys for remaining calm being able to go down and win the game."
If Notre Dame wins out, it will be interesting to see how the committee compares the team's resume with other teams who will play in a conference title game. Notre Dame's most difficult remaining test comes against USC to close the season.
No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (AP Poll: 5th)
No. 6 Georgia Bulldogs (AP Poll: 7th)
Michigan ranks very favorably in the strength of schedule metrics. The Wolverines rank No. 10 in TeamRankings.com strength of schedule index, while they are a bit lower in the S&P+ at 31st. As long as they can take care of business against Penn State next week, Michigan should be smooth sailing until they take on Ohio State for what will likely be a spot in the Big Ten title game.
The Wolverines are the kind of team the committee tends to like with a strong strength of schedule combined with quality wins. Michigan's lone loss came against Notre Dame, which continues to look better and better as the season goes on. The Wolverines have a very good chance of making the College Football Playoff if they can win out and secure a Big Ten title. The challenge for Michigan and some of the other potential top conference champions is Notre Dame.
If Alabama and Notre Dame win out as they are expected to, it likely leaves two spots for the four remaining Power Five conferences. Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh credits Ole Miss transfer quarterback Shea Patterson for helping the team rally after an early loss.
"I think he embraces all the pressure situations," Harbaugh told ESPN. "Really pours his heart and soul into playing the game, and [I have] just the ultimate respect for him and the way he plays and who he is and how he completes. He competes like a maniac."
Georgia's Win Over Florida Boosts Resume
The Bulldogs received a big boost to their resume with their win over Florida in a marquee neutral site rivalry game. Things do not get much easier for Georgia with upcoming games against Kentucky and Auburn.
Florida is Georgia's signature win so far this season. Georgia has also notched victories against South Carolina and Missouri. Georgia head coach Kirby Smart has been complimentary of quarterback Jake Fromm's ability to bounce back since the Bulldogs loss to LSU.
"He's been great," Smart told 247 Sports. "He was super out there last week. Spirited. There's a lot of competition. We tried to make competition between the offense and the defense and he challenged guys and made some plays with the wideouts and the backs. Jake's not the kind of guy that backs down from the competition. He's not going to do that. He's not going to say, 'I didn't play my best game' and then go into a shell. He's out there working every day."
Georgia has not had the strongest of opponents as their No. 62 ranked schedule shows, but the Bulldogs should see a bump after November. This is especially true if the Bulldogs can land a spot in the SEC Championship.
No. 7 Washington State Cougars (AP Poll: 14th)
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners (AP Poll: 8th)
It is easy to dismiss Washington State as a cute story who finally got to host College Gameday, but the Cougars also have a strong resume. The Cougars have wins over Utah and Oregon. Both teams were ranked at the time they played, but it remains to be seen how much the committee values the Pac-12. Washington State has an opportunity to add another quality win to their resume against Stanford.
Count Washington State head coach Mike Leach among those in favor of expansion. Leach said on the Les is More podcast that he believes the playoff should be expanded to 16 teams.
“They need an expanded playoff system, minimum 16 teams,” Leach said per MSN.com. “I haven’t quite figured out how everybody from rec league softball on down can figure out how to put together a tournament and Division 1 can’t.”
The Cougars have remaining games against Colorado and Washington. Wins in those matchups would give them a bit of a boost along with a Pac-12 title game appearance. Washington State quarterback Gardner Minshew has been one of the surprises of the college football season. Stanford head coach David Shaw spoke about what makes Minshew difficult to scheme against.
“This kid’s got active feet,” Shaw told the San Francisco Chronicle. “He’s very quick, and he gets out of trouble. He’s a perfect fit for what Coach Leach does. Quick decision-maker. Great vision. Throws the ball accurately. That’s what Coach Leach wants, and that’s what he’s got.”
Oklahoma Needs to Win Big 12 to Keep Playoff Hopes Alive
The Sooners' best win came against TCU, but they still have some strong opponents remaining on their schedule. Oklahoma's matchup against West Virginia in their final regular season game could be for a spot in the Big 12 title game. Unless pure chaos breaks out, Oklahoma's only chance at a College Football Playoff spot is to win all their regular season games along with the Big 12 title.
Kyler Murray has provided Oklahoma with a seamless transition at quarterback after Baker Mayfield headed to the NFL. Murray gives the Sooners a bit more mobility at quarterback as well. Oklahoma head coach Lincoln Riley spoke about Murray surpassing most people's expectations.
“Before the season, somebody asked in here about the presumption that the production at the quarterback position is gonna drop off,” Riley explained to News OK. “I said, ‘Well, we’ll see.’ I mean, I’ve always thought he (Murray) could be a really good player. I knew he would play well. The stats are what they are. I think more than anything, he’s growing as a player, he’s growing as a leader, he’s handling situations well, he’s got good players around him that he’s learning to use really well, and he’s in synch with a lot of ‘em. And so yeah, I’ve felt the whole time whoever won that battle was gonna be a great situation and had a chance to be a great quarterback for us. That’s just the standard for us right now.”
No. 9 UCF Knights (AP Poll: 10th)
No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes (AP Poll: 11th)
UCF represents one of the most polarizing teams in college football at the moment. Despite winning 20 straight games, the Knights have had their fair share of critics, citing a less than stellar strength of schedule.
The conversation is much more nuanced than often gets discussed in sound-bite friendly clips. UCF does have a weak schedule, but it is difficult for teams like the Knights to find quality Power Five opponents to schedule. UCF's game against North Carolina was canceled because of the hurricane, marking the second straight season a game against a Power-Five opponent was canceled. When given the opportunity, UCF has a strong track record against Power Five teams with wins over Auburn, Baylor, Georgia, Pitt and Maryland just to name a few over the last decade.
UCF's schedule does pick up in November with matchups against the top teams in the AAC. History has shown us that the committee tends to dismiss teams from the Group of Five. It will be interesting to see if the Knights are given the benefit of the doubt since they have gone nearly two years without a loss. The College Football Playoff's executive director Bill Hancock said earlier this season that there is a path for a team like UCF to be one of the top four teams.
"Yes, there is a path,'' Hancock told Sports Illustrated. "UCF got full consideration from the committee last year. I believe the committee at the end of the season had ranked UCF higher than the sports writers and the coaches had. So they got every consideration and they had a wonderful season...For the path, play a good schedule, win your games, and you're going to be in the hunt for the College Football Playoff."
My sense is the committee is not going to be too motivated to rank UCF highly after the Knights spent the offseason poking the bear. It will be intriguing to see how this year's group compares UCF to one-loss Power Five teams like Ohio State. This year's committee has two former Group of Five coaches along with former UCF athletic director Todd Stansbury (now at Georgia Tech), so there are some voices in the room that could plead UCF's case.
Ohio State Can Still Make a Run at the College Football Playoff
The Buckeyes can still build some momentum to make the College Football Playoff, but right now they do not have the most impressive resume of the top teams. Ohio State's biggest win came against Penn State, but their win over TCU is looking less impressive as the Horned Frogs continue to lose.
Ohio State's blowout loss to a Purdue team that is just .500 is hard to ignore. The good news for the Buckeyes is they still have games against Michigan State and Michigan remaining on their schedule. If Ohio State wins out, their matchup against Michigan will likely be for a trip to the Big Ten title game. Urban Meyer believes his team can rely on past experience to get back into the playoff picture.
"We've got good players, good coaches, and we'll get to work," Meyer told ESPN. "We lost a game last year and came right back. We have good guys -- we're going to work at it and get this thing right."
College Football Rankings: CFB Playoff Predictions Week 10