The NFL couldn't flex a Monday Night Football game so the Green Bay Packers are at home against the Jimmy Garoppolo-less San Francisco 49ers. Fortunately, the 49ers have played a few close games now, so maybe they can potentially keep Aaron Rodgers somewhat in check ... maybe. Fortunately, DraftKings is offering some huge showdown options for this game, so even if it does get ugly we should have plenty to watch for.
For those who haven't played a DraftKings showdown game, there's almost an art to building these lineups, because you have to be unique. The price tags on players for showdown slates are far different than normal games, and you'll also select a captain who costs 1.5-times the salary but also earns 1.5x the points (more on this as we go on).
For the Monday night matchup between the 49ers and Packers, the daily fantasy site has upped the action a bit by offering a variety of different types and sizes of games. The $10 game is always popular, and it features a massive $1,250,000 guaranteed and $250,000 to first.
Along with the huge headliner game, they've bumped up the $33 payout as well, and it now features $100,000 guaranteed and $20,000 to the eventual winner. The $12 single entry ($40,000 guaranteed) is always popular and for players looking for lower buy-in options, a $3 game with 20-max entries and $300,000 guaranteed is a great option.
Overall, the daily fantasy sports site seemingly increased many of the guarantees for Monday Night Football this week, so there's plenty on the line.
Before we dive into the action for Week 5 and the game let's offer a quick insight into how showdown games work.
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
I'll go through and first offer up my favorite choices at captain and then a few different types of lineups. There will be one optimal lineup, a lineup for 150-max games (more risk), and one for single entries/cash games (higher-floor players).
To start, let's run down the captain spot and give some insight into the top plays and names to consider.
49ers vs. Packers Showdown: Captain Choices & Strategy
There is a whole lot to take in from this game, but honestly, I'd much prefer slates like this where there are value plays we can use. In these types of spots, being able to find the best matchups and opportunities can help differentiate yourself. On many other showdown slates, you'll find yourself consistently going back to the chalk plays, which can be hard to avoid in some instances.
The captain spot in the 49ers vs. Packers game has a ton of appeal for me. There are ways to both build around the potential top-scorer in Aaron Rogers or even his expensive No. 1 receiver in Davante Adams while still building strong lineups. On the flip side, if we spend down at captain there are a few names who should be lower-owned and worth considering.
Finally, the Packers defense is in the mix here, especially considering how much pressure they're getting on opposing quarterbacks. I don't typically roll out defenses in the captain spot, but while most will want to use Green Bay, putting them in that top spot will be a unique approach.
When I begin building lineups, I'll select 4-5 players to consider for the captain spot, mixing up expensive and cheaper options. From there, you can spread those players across multiple lineups and mix in the other top plays with them. But it's worth noting that while I have a favorite core of captains, it doesn't mean I'll roll them out in all lineups. Often times, the stars don't align for many of the high-dollar names to be a captain.
Here's a look at the options I'll be targeting for the captain spot in Week 6 (with captain pricing of 1.5x more):
– Aaron Rogers ($18,300)
– Davante Adams ($17,400)
– C.J. Beathard ($13,200)
– Jimmy Graham ($11,400)
– Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,200)
– Kendrick Bourne ($4,200)
Favorite expensive captains: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams
Top value-saving captain: Kendrick Bourne
Now, I'm going to break down the lines I'll be using, starting with the optimal lineup, then the 150-max lineup and single-entry breakdown.
*Note: If any players currently listed as questionable are ruled out, but are in lineups, I will update this BEFORE lock Thursday. As ESPN's Lisa Salters (per Adam Schefter) revealed, both Packers WRs in Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison are expected to be inactive for this game.
Optimal Lineup No. 1
– CAPTAIN: Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($10,200)
– Aaron Rodgers ($12,200)
– Davante Adams ($11,600)
– C.J. Beathard ($8,800)
– Green Bay Packers DST ($4,200)
– Kendrick Bourne ($2,800)
With both Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison out, I'll be pretty heavy on Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Last week with those two sidelined he played 95 percent of the snaps, per Football Outsiders, which is even more than Davante Adams, who I also love in this spot. I believe the duo of Adams and Valdes-Scantling is going to be high-owned, but it's going to be hard to avoid in this game.
The 49ers have allowed just 57 catches to opposing wideouts, but they've given up big plays, allowing a total of 812 yards and six touchdowns through the air. Valdes-Scantling saw 10 receptions last week and Adams may have the safest floor and highest ceiling of any player on this slate.
Obviously, when you have Aaron Rodgers throwing you the ball, there's a lot to be excited about. The 49ers are going to have a brutal night against Rodgers, as they've already given up 12 touchdowns on the season to quarterbacks, making them one of the worst teams against the position. I fully expect Rodgers to light up the scoreboard, assuming the game doesn't get out of hand quickly.
Before you scoff at the idea of using C.J. Beathard (if you didn't like this, wait until the 150-max line), look at his numbers. Since taking over for Garoppolo, Beathard has thrown the ball 37 and 54 times while finishing with 19.82 and 27.66 DraftKings points. He's not a great real-life quarterback, but with the amount of time this team spends playing catchup now, he'll have no problem putting up fantasy points.
For what it's worth, if you've never heard of Kendrick Bourne, then that's probably a good sign for this showdown slate. The Packers haven't been horrible against receivers, but they've struggled against the non-WR1 options. Over the past three games, Bourne's targets have gone from two (Week 3) to seven (Week 5). His style fits with Beathard's short passing mentality.
The 49ers will also be without Trent Taylor in this game more than likely, making Bourne an even more solid play here.
*Note: All stats for defensive vs. position is courtesy of ESPN
150-Max Entry Lineup
– CAPTAIN: C.J. Beathard ($13,200)
– Aaron Rodgers ($12,200)
– Davante Adams ($11,600)
– George Kittle ($7,800)**
– Kendrick Bourne ($2,800)
– Equanimeous St. Brown ($2,400)
**Note: George Kittle questionable but expected to play.
I'll just be honest, I think Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are going to be in close to 90 percent of my lineups. Maybe to be a bit different I'll take them out of a few, but they're just the safest and best plays on the board, and there's enough value to get them in. There is the potential to make a well-rounded lineup if you remove one of the two, so that's definitely a route to consider.
I also went back to the C.J. Beathard and Kendrick Bourne pairing, which is actually one of my favorite stacks for GPPs and big games. Contrary to most, I also think Bourne could wind up having a safe floor, but his seven targets last week and the fact that the 49ers should be playing from behind makes him a solid 150-max option.
One of the new names added to the mix here is George Kittle. The fact he's questionable with a knee injury has me somewhat concerned, but he did get in a few practices this week, so that's a positive sign. Kittle has seen 15 targets in the past two weeks and totaled 11 receptions for at least 83 yards in each of those games.
The Packers haven't allowed a touchdown this season to tight ends, but they have given up 308 yards. If we can get something like five or six receptions and 80-100 yards from Kittle, it'll be solid, but I think we see more. He's somewhat of a safety blanket for Beathard, who's targeted Kittle in the red zone three times in the past two weeks.
And it's finally time to talk about Equanimeous St. Brown, who'll step into a large role next to Adams and Valdes-Scantling due to Cobb and Allison's injuries. He played 74 percent of the snaps last game, per Football Outsiders, and has home-run hitting ability, making him a great 150-max option.
My one concern is that there's a high probability St. Brown will see a fair amount of Richard Sherman in this game. This is why I probably won't use a ton of him in single entry or three-max games. But if he draws a few spots away from Sherman, or even against him, there's no question he can get loose over the top and score a long touchdown.
*Note: All stats for defensive vs. position is courtesy of ESPN
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Davante Adams ($17,400)
– Aaron Rodgers ($12,200)
– Marquez Valdes-Scantling (6,800)
– Pierre Garcon ($6,400)
– Green Bay Packers DST ($4,200)
– Kendrick Bourne ($2,800)
I'm trying to go as straightforward with the single entry lineups as possible and once again will focus it around Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. I did want to get Rodgers in the captain spot here, and highly recommend using him as a captain quite a bit.
But since that didn't line up with my interest in using the Packers defense again, the choice was to flip Adams and Rodgers. Both players are safe and it made it so I didn't have to drastically change any of the other players who I wanted to keep here.
I mentioned the thought process on Marquez Valdes-Scantling before and I see his floor being pretty high here. There was a bit of back-and-forth on using Jimmy Graham (and finding a way to fit him) over Valdes-Scantling, but I feel as though the latter's upside is higher. And although we're talking about single entry games, we do still need some upside.
While I went wide receiver heavy on this lineup, I do recommend getting Graham in a few spots. He has a fine matchup against a 49ers team who has allowed four touchdowns to tight end this season and saw 11 targets last week. He's going to get a fair share of looks and is in a great spot.
The Pierre Garcon and Kendrick Bourne pairing in cash games is one some people may argue with. A lot of people actually may not even like the thought of playing Bourne, but he's built a rapport with Beathard. Even if he catches just 2-3 passes for 30-40 yards, he's hitting value and allowing us to get a top-tier player in the captain spot.
As far as Garcon goes, the choice to use him comes down to targets. He fits the short passing attack I mentioned the 49ers offense has highlighted at times now and has seen 19 targets in the past two weeks. Unfortunately, those 19 targets have only resulted in nine catches for 99 yards, but his floor is safe assuming he finishes with around 4-6 catches.
*Note: All stats for defensive vs. position is courtesy of ESPN
I've covered some of the additional players I'll be targeting as well as the names listed above next.
Additional Targets for 49ers vs. Packers Showdown Game
I previously spoke about Jimmy Graham, but when taking a deeper dive, he makes an even better play than it seemed. In the week prior to Cobb and Allison being out, Graham was targeted on 11.1 percent of the snaps he played, and last week that number jumped to 16.7 percent. He's getting looks from Rogers and that won't change.
My plan is to also use Matt Breida as he's expected to play. If he doesn't play, of course, I'll keep him out. But my thought here is that he's by far the most talented running back on the 49ers roster and he should garnish low ownership due to the injury question mark. I think many people will be scared to roster him, so he's a good play for 150-max games.
There was interested in using 49ers fullback Kyle Juszczyk, but if Breida plays he'll take a hit. Last week, he totaled six receptions on seven targets for 75 yards and has seen at least three targets over the past four games. It's unlikely I use him if Breida is good to go.
Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams are both names I'm interested in, but it's hard to fully dive into using either. The Packers have a painful running back split and it's tough to gauge. Last week, Williams played 41 percent of the snaps, Jones 27 percent and Ty Montgomery was in the middle with 36 percent, per Football Outsiders.
But the week prior, it was Jones who led the way with 38 percent compared to 37 percent for Williams and 26 percent for Montgomery. If I'm choosing, it'd be Williams at $4,000 on DraftKings over the other two. His discount is nice, he gets a fair amount of passing work and he seems to be the go-to option on the goal line. I like him a fair amount in big tournaments over the other two.
And finally, let's swing for a $200 play in Richie James, another name who most are going to just ignore. His ownership, even in the massive $10 game will almost certainly be less than 3-4 percent. So why would I consider him, especially with Marquise Goodwin back? Well, he played 24 percent of the snaps last week and Taylor is now out of the lineup. There's an opportunity there for some playing time.
Realistically, James could wind up playing around 25-30 percent of the snaps and at $200 it's basically a freebie play with nothing to lose.
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