It’s Week 7 of the NFL season and after Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton missed two games, he’s set to return Sunday. Time to rejoice, right? We may want to hold the phone on that. While fantasy football owners are surely locking Hilton into their lineups, there’s a lot to be considered in this spot.
It will be tough to leave the Colts wideout on your bench, largely due to the fact that you almost certainly used a high draft pick on him. But between the return from injury and his matchup, there’s an argument to be made on the “sit” side of the start-sit debate.
Let’s take a look at the situation and break down whether Hilton is a name to start Sunday against the Buffalo Bills.
Key Stats and T.Y. Hilton’s Fantasy Outlook
I’ll break down the matchup, recent production and a few other key numbers for Hilton ahead of Week 7. All information on fantasy points and statistics for defense vs. position are from ESPN.
- Buffalo Bills vs. wide receivers in 2018: 81 receptions, 885 yards, five touchdowns (No. 7 fewest fantasy points per game)
- Hilton expected to draw coverage from Tre’Davious White for much of the game
- Over the first three games of this season, Hilton saw double-digit targets every game
Tre’Davious White. That’s what fantasy owners should be scared of. White is a brutally tough matchup and there’s no reason to believe he won’t shadow Hilton for the bulk of the game. On the positive side, the numbers above actually show the Bills aren’t terrible against receivers, so it may be more than the Colts’ No. 1 receiver who has a tough time.
Should You Start or Sit T.Y. Hilton?
One thing worth noting is that the Colts coaching staff likely wouldn’t bring Hilton back unless he was 100 percent. And assuming that’s the case, then he should see a normal workload which will almost certainly consist of double-digit targets, even with White shadowing him.
Now, whether or not Hilton can get loose a few times for big gainers is the million dollar question. I’m not going to confidently bet on that, but if you’re playing in a 14-team league or larger, it’s unlikely there’s a waiver option better than Hilton, at least in terms of upside. I’d start the 28-year-old in all large leagues, and he’s a fine flex play in 12-team leagues if you’re left with no other realistic choices, but I don’t love it.