We have been fortunate this season to not see a lot of major injuries impact both the regular NFL and fantasy football season. This week, we lost Jay Ajayi, a running back who had a few promising outings but struggled to stay healthy for most of the season. With the Eagles placing Ajayi on the injured reserve list, at least one of the Eagles running backs will become fantasy relevant.
This is disappointing for those fantasy owners who used a high draft pick on the running back, and it also creates a lot of confusion on which Eagles running back should be your waiver wire priority. Yahoo Sports' Brad Evans explained the confusion, but tipped his hat towards prioritizing Wendell Smallwood.
"With Jay Ajayi done for the year, I fully expect Doug Pederson to institute a full-blown RBBC — Smallwood, Clement, Sproles and Adams. Smallwood is the priority add with Josh Adams a dark horse for power back/GL carries," Evans tweeted.
It will likely take us a few weeks to see how the Eagles prioritize carries without Ajayi, but Smallwood along with Corey Clement are both worth waiver wire flyers. Even though Smallwood is expected to get the majority of carries, I would avoid starting an Eagles running back this week until we see things play out. The team used multiple backs earlier this season when Ajayi was forced to miss time, and it is hard to start Smallwood or Clement with confidence.
The Patriots-Chiefs Highlight Fantasy-Friendly Week 6 Matchups
Vegas expects things to end with a bang on Sunday night with a Chiefs-Patriots shootout. The over-under is approaching 60 points making multiple Chiefs and Patriots offensive players strong fantasy options. After laying an egg in Pittsburgh, look for the Falcons offense to bounce back at home against the Bucs. According to OddsShark, the point total is 57.5 as we expect to see the 2018 debut of Jameis Winston as the Bucs starting quarterback.
The Steelers-Bengals matchup looks to be a high-scoring affair with the over-under set at 53 points. The Rams-Broncos matchup is just a hair behind at 52.5.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Jaguars-Cowboys and Ravens-Titans have two of the lowest point totals of the week. These Vegas projections should not dictate all your lineup decisions, but they serve as a nice tiebreaker if you are deciding between two players.
As always, please send your specific fantasy football questions to me on Twitter @JonDAdams. In addition to lineup talk, we can also discuss potential trades as the deadline approaches in most leagues. If you are staring at a losing record with no signs of things improving, now is the time to make a move to try to save your fantasy season. The best way to do this is to target players who are prime buy-low candidates.
Click the next arrow to see my fantasy football predictions for Week 6 in the latest edition of Start-Sit.
Start: WR Calvin Ridley vs. Bucs
Sit: WR John Brown at Titans
The Falcons offense is back in Atlanta, which means Calvin Ridley and even Mohamed Sanu are solid starts this week. During the Falcons last two home games, Ridley had 11 receptions for 200 yards and five touchdowns. The Falcons are facing the worst passing defense in the league this week.
Tampa Bay is allowing 358 yards per game, the most in the NFL by 15 yards. The Bucs are one of only two teams who are allowing at least 300 passing yards each week. Matt Ryan explained why he thought Ridley has been able to contribute right away.
"He's done an excellent job for us coming in, and the reason he's gotten those looks is because we got a pretty good guy on the other side," Ryan told ESPN. "And Julio creates matchup problems for the defense and requires so much coverage that other guys get really good opportunities. Calvin has taken advantage of those opportunities and done a really nice job."
You could get away with starting both Ridley and Sanu this week against a terrible Bucs defense. If I could only pick one, I would prioritize Ridley.
It seems like we explain this every week, but the Falcons understand their only chance to win each week is to outscore teams with their offense. Thanks to multiple members of the secondary and linebacker core being lost for the season, the Falcons have been a team where offenses take advantage of their misfortune.
John Brown Faces a Difficult Titans Secondary
Brown is coming off his worst performance of the season with four receptions for 58 yards against the Browns. This week, the Ravens wide receiver faces a Titans secondary that ranks No. 3 in the NFL for yards allowed at just 210 yards per game.
You may be in a situation where you have to start Brown, which is okay as long as you are tempering your expectations. With such a difficult matchup, you should not expect Brown to be more than a WR3 for Week 6.
Baltimore only managed to score nine points last week against the Browns. Their offensive struggles are likely to continue this week against the Titans. Joe Flacco spoke about the team's offensive woes after their loss to the Browns.
“We just weren’t able to keep and sustain it for anything significant,” Flacco told the Baltimore Sun. “We had our chances. In these kind of games when you have little chances, you have to be able to take advantage of them. The couple we had, we probably just didn’t execute well.”
According to CBS Sports, Brown managed to catch just four of his 14 targets against the Browns. If you are looking at this positively, you would note that 14 targets are a lot for one receiver. The downside is Brown only converted on four of these opportunities, which is a very bad percentage.
Sit Brown where you can, and otherwise expect him to produce as a WR3 against the Titans.
Start: RB Marshawn Lynch vs. Seahawks
Sit: RB Wendell Smallwood/RB Corey Clement at Giants
We all remember the Seahawks decision not to give the ball to Marshawn Lynch on the one-yard line against the Patriots in Super Bowl XLIX. Lynch has taken the high road since the Seahawks botched the play call that helped lead to a game-ending interception. The former Seahawks running back may not admit it publicly, but there has to be at least a part of him that wants to stick it to his old team.
Even if there was not a revenge factor, the Seahawks have been one of the worst defenses when it comes to defending the run. The Seahawks are giving up 129 rushing yards per game, putting them in the bottom five teams in the entire league. Former Seahawks teammate Doug Baldwin spoke about Lynch's decision to come back from retirement.
“I talked to him after a Thanksgiving thing with his family, they were out there playing football,’’ Baldwin told The Seattle Times. “He called me and said, ‘Man, I think I’ve still got it.’ I said, ‘Sit your a-- down.’ But that’s what he wanted to do. He loves the sport. I think the thing that he missed most was the locker room. He missed being around guys who are like-minded, who are striving for something. That part is hard to separate yourself from when you’re away from the game.”
Whether it is a small taste for revenge or just a plus matchup, all signs point to Lynch having a monster game against his former club.
Jay Ajayi's Injury Leaves Lots of Uncertainty in Philly
The Eagles backfield is hard to predict with as many as four running backs in the mix. We recommend picking up both Smallwood and Clement in leagues where they are available. Just because you pick up a player off waivers does not mean you have to put them in your lineup.
As of now, it looks like Smallwood will get the first chance to win the job. Clement is also expected to be in the mix. It is this uncertainty that makes the entire Eagles backfield a pass this week. If either Smallwood or Clement emerges as fantasy relevant after Week 6, then you can feel more comfortable putting them in your lineup moving forward.
My fear is the team is going to go with a Running Back by Committee approach which means fantasy owners will not know which running back to start from week to week. If you are desperate to start someone at flex, Smallwood would be the guy, but I prefer to avoid the whole backfield for this week. It sounds like the Eagles players are expecting a committee approach which is not great for fantasy purposes.
"That's kind of been our approach, even with Jay, even when he was playing," Carson Wentz told the Philadelphia Inquirer. "He was always the starter. He was always the guy. But we've always been 'by committee' around here...We feel confident in these guys stepping up. We've seen Wendell step up the last couple weeks and make plays. Getting Corey back out there, that will be big for us. Josh is going to have to increase his role as well. Sproles, as well, hopefully coming back sometime soon."
Smallwood and/or Clement are worth a flyer in large DFS tournaments this week. As for season-long fantasy, it is best to leave all the Eagles running backs on your bench.
Start: TE Austin Hooper vs. Bucs
Sit: TE Hayden Hurst at Titans
Hooper has been one of the most frustrating tight ends to roster, but he is just a representation of the entire position in fantasy with a rotating door of TE1's. You probably had him on your bench last week, but Hooper had nine receptions for 77 yards against the Steelers. Prior to that, Hooper had just four receptions over a two-week span.
There are reasons to think this could be another good week for Hooper. The Falcons face a Bucs defense that has been fantasy-friendly for tight ends. Vance McDonald had four receptions for 112 yards and a touchdown against the Bucs in Week 3. The following week Trey Burton finished with two receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown. Tampa Bay has not only been giving up yards to tight ends, but big plays as well.
Atlanta is trying to outscore teams with an aggressive offense thanks to how bad the defense has been decimated by injuries. Matt Ryan will be slinging the ball all over the yard on Sunday with the Falcons at home hosting the Bucs. Chances are Hooper is the beneficiary of playing against a bad defense, and Ryan spreading the ball around. AtlantaFalcons.com broke down why fantasy owners should be cautiously optimistic about Hooper's outlook the rest of the way.
"Hooper accounted for nearly a quarter of quarterback Matt Ryan’s targeted air yards, trailing only Julio Jones (35 percent) and caught nine of the 12 passes thrown his way," the Falcons' website notes. "He was the second-most frequently targeted tight end of the weekend, trailing only Indianapolis’ Eric Ebron (nine receptions, 15 targets), and his 75-percent catch percentage ranked fifth among qualifying tight ends (minimum of five targets).
Separation was the key to Hooper’s success against the Steelers. He averaged 4.01 yards of space from the nearest defender at the time of the catch or incompletion on his 12 targets. That is more than a yard better than the NFL average and it was able to help him turn four of his receptions into first downs. Hooper was very effective running shorter routes from the line of scrimmage to 10-yards deep. All nine of his receptions came in this area of the field and he helped Ryan complete 85.2 percent of his 27 passes in this zone."
Hayden Hurst Is Still Shaking the Rust Off
Hurst made his NFL debut this past weekend, but it was a quiet day for the rookie tight end. Hurst had just one catch for seven yards against the Browns. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh noted it is going to take some time for Hurst to feel comfortable as the team tries to ease him into the rotation.
“He got out of it good physically,” Harbaugh told the Baltimore Sun. “He’s in good shape, and I think he did OK — probably what you would expect. He’s going to be better as he gets more reps, but he’s going to be fine.”
Hurst faces a Titans defense that is No. 3 in the NFL in passing yards allowed giving up just 210 yards per game. Hurst should not find his way into your lineup, especially with the Ravens splitting up reps among multiple tight ends as the Baltimore Sun explains.
"Hurst, the organization’s first of two first-round picks in April’s NFL draft and the first tight end selected overall, was targeted twice, caught one pass for 7 yards and was otherwise quiet in his NFL debut. He played 21 snaps, which trailed Nick Boyle’s 39, fellow rookie Mark Andrews’ 33 and Maxx Williams’ 27," the Baltimore Sun reports.
Start: RB Chris Carson vs. Raiders
Sit: RB Kenyan Drake vs. Bears
For the second straight week, Carson rushed for more than 100 yards. Carson did not score a touchdown to really make his fantasy outing a massive success, but he is getting the carries to make him an RB2 with upside going forward. He has one of the best matchups in Week 6 of any running back as the Seahawks square off with the Raiders.
Oakland is giving up the fifth-most rushing yards in the league, allowing 127 yards per game. Carson is poised for his third straight 100-yard game. Carson carried the ball 51 times over the last two weeks. Despite the Seahawks losing to the Rams, head coach Pete Carroll sounds optimistic about the run game.
“We ran the football like we wanted to,” Carroll said per Seahawks.com. “We controlled the field like we needed to; third downs were terrific. We took care of the ball, ran it for a bunch, really gave us a chance to be in the game against a team that has a loaded offense on the other side.
Carson noted he is starting to find his groove this season.
“We’ve never believed that this team couldn’t run the ball,” Carson told the Seattle Times. “So all the time we always thought that, given the chance, we could make something happen. So we’re starting to show people that.”
Carson has an opportunity to be an RB1 this week if he can find the end zone. The Seahawks have made it clear they want to run the football, and Carson is the head of the committee.
Fade Kenyon Drake With the Bears Defense Coming to Town
Drake owners finally saw signs of life against the Bengals thanks mostly to his involvement in the passing game. Now, I am telling you to leave him on your bench. The two main reasons are the matchup combined with his inconsistency this season.
The Bears have the best rushing defense in the league, allowing just 64 yards per game. Drake has not rushed for more than 60 yards this season. His fantasy relevance depends on how much he is used in the passing game. Drake rushed for just three yards in two of his five games so far this season. Heading into the Dolphins matchup with the Bengals, head coach Adam Gase remained non-committal to Drake.
“I mean we’re four games in,” Gase explained to USA Today. “Let’s not everybody get all riled up about the first four games of the season. We’ve got a long ways to go. If we get our play count up, I think things will get a lot better as far as dividing the touches up and guys having more opportunities to make some plays. Really, the run game, it’s all about efficient runs. We’ve just got to do a good job of making sure we stay ahead of the sticks. We keep putting ourselves in bad situations with being third-and-7-plus. We need to live in third-and-5 or less. And we can do that by getting positive plays, whether it’s in the passing game or in the run game."
Last week, Drake ended up with the most carries he has had this season with 14, but did not do a lot with the opportunity. Most of his fantasy production came in the passing game. Sit Drake as the Dolphins face a difficult Bears defense.
Optimal Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Anthony Miller ($9,300)
– Mitchell Trubisky ($9,800)
– Robert Woods ($9,600)
– Brandin Cooks ($9,400)
– Tarik Cohen ($8,600)
– Cody Parkey ($3,000)
With the return of Mitchell Trubisky, I think we're going to get a nice spot with wide receiver Anthony Miller. Although he's seen just six targets in the past two games with Chase Daniel under center, that will likely change on Sunday. Prior to the Vikings game just before that, Trubisky had targeted Miller 26 times over the span of four games.
Even more appealing than a large number of targets is the fact that Miller has a knack for finding the end zone. In a potentially high-scoring game, a player who's scored in five of the last eight games and has the ability to score from anywhere on the field is appealing. Best of all, his price as a captain allows the building of a strong lineup still.
Pairing Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks is a spot I'm pretty high on. The Bears have allowed 2,111 yards and 12 touchdowns to wide receivers this season, which ranks as the seventh-most fantasy points on average, per ESPN. While I'm a bit worried about Jared Goff's home vs. road splits against the Bears defense, even if the Rams fall behind, Woods and Cooks will be in great spots.
While Woods provides the safe floor, I love the big-play potential of Cooks in this matchup. It's also become apparent that he's done a lot of the heavy lifting with Cooper Kupp no longer in the lineup. Over the last three games, Cooks has totaled 22 receptions on 30 targets while topping the 100-yard mark twice. He has big play potential and also the ability to move the chains frequently.
Tarik Cohen will likely be a favorite play at this price, and while the Rams haven't been bad against running backs, it's going to be interesting to see how this matchup plays out. Cohen is a favorite target out of the backfield in Matt Nagy's offense, and that won't change this week. With that said, the Rams have allowed just 378 yards through the air to running backs, but have given up 65 receptions.
The workload alone makes provides a safe floor for Cohen. His upside is arguably as high as any player on this slate with the exception of Todd Gurley as well. I'll happily roll out the Bears electrifying back quite a bit on this slate.
The 150-max lineup features a major focus on upside with more risk involved and is what I'll break down next.
Start: QB Andrew Luck vs. Jets
Sit: QB Eli Manning vs. Eagles
After two straight games of throwing for less than 200 yards, Luck appears to have shaken off all the rust. Luck threw for 464 yard and four touchdowns in Week 4 against the Texans. Just four days later, Luck followed it up with 365 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions.
The Jets are not a terrible defense, but the unit is no reason to bench Luck this week with how well he is playing from a fantasy perspective. Colts coach Frank Reich did offer a word of caution about Luck's workload.
“It’s killing me to have to throw this much,” Reich said per Pro Football Talk. “I know you can’t sustain this. The story doesn’t end well when you have to sustain this level of throwing. Maybe there’s exceptions to that.”
Even if Luck does not throw for another 400 yards this week, he is still a safe start. Luck may be on a statistical hot streak, but the Colts have lost three straight games. Luck was not pleased with the result against the Patriots, but the Colts quarterback believes things will turn around.
"We're not going to learn how to win consistently until we get out of our way," Luck explained to ESPN. "That's not taking anything away from New England. They beat us fair and square. They were the better team today. When we look at ourselves, we're going to have to learn how to not to lose before we give ourselves a chance to win. It's frustrating. We're all frustrated, but I don't think anybody is losing belief."
Luck is a solid start this week against the Jets. If you are looking for another starting quarterback, Matt Ryan is a player who should be able to bounce back at home against a bad Bucs defense.
Eli Manning Has a Difficult Matchup Against the Eagles
Manning is always a tempting play given the number of weapons on the Giants. Odell Beckham Jr. created headlines last week when he failed to provide a lot of encouraging words about Manning during an interview with ESPN's Josina Anderson.
"I don't know [if there is a problem at quarterback]," Beckham told ESPN. "Like I said, I feel like he's not going to get out the pocket. He's not -- we know Eli's not running it. But is it a matter of time issue? Can he still throw it, yeah, but it's been pretty safe and it's been, you know ... cool catching shallow [routes] and trying to take it to the house. But I'm, you know, I want to go over the top of somebody."
Confidence aside, it is simply not a good matchup this week for Manning against one of the best defensive lines in the league. Not only does Manning face the Eagles defense, but he has to do it on a short week.
It is a bad week for the NFC East quarterbacks as Dak Prescott faces the Jaguars defense. Like Manning, I'd also keep Prescott on your bench if at all possible.
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 6 Predictions