We are closing in on the two-month mark of the fantasy football season. A few quick notes before we get to our Week 7 Start-Sit predictions. It is time to start thinking about the trade deadline as the playoff push begins.
With the exception of Le'Veon Bell, if you are holding onto players thinking they are going to be something different, it may be time to see what you can get in a trade. I am looking at you Dalvin Cook owners. There are a few exceptions to this as players like Jarvis Landry and Doug Baldwin are ones to target in the trade market.
Baldwin finally looks to be healthy. The Seahawks receiver had eight targets against the Raiders for six receptions and 91 yards. Baldwin has yet to score a touchdown this season, but once he starts to get red zone looks again he will be a weekly WR2 with upside.
The Bengals-Chiefs & Falcons-Giants Are the Only 2 Games With Point Totals Over 50
It looks like Vegas is not expecting many shootouts this week. According to OddsShark, only two games have point totals over 50 points: Bengals-Chiefs and Falcons-Giants. If all goes as planned, the week will end with a bang as both primetime matchups expected to be offensive duels.
Patrick Mahomes has been a fantasy revelation this season. With so many offenses putting up points, quarterbacks are not a high priority in traditional fantasy formats, but chances are your team is doing well if you grabbed Mahomes late in your fantasy draft. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid spoke about how Mahomes bounced back against the Patriots after a subpar first half.
“He started off a little rough,” Reid said per Arrowhead Pride. “But he came back. he battled through it. He kept firing — which is important — and made some plays. He’s a young guy. For him to be able to overcome those things during a game, tells you a little bit about him. But on the other hand, we have to get better at those things. We have to start better. He’s the type that will do that. he knows that every day’s not going to be perfect, but that he has to keep battling. That’s what he does, and I appreciate that with him.”
Vegas has three games that are just under the 50-point mark. The Patriots-Bears, Browns-Bucs and Saints-Ravens all have an over-under of 49.5. We highlight these games with a high point total as a good reference point in case you are making a lineup decision between two players. If all things are even, go with the player that is going to be in a high scoring game.
We often highlight fantasy-friendly matchups, but you should also consider the player as well. Just because a player has a good fantasy matchup does not mean he should be in your fantasy lineup. You would be wise to consider all the factors before making a final decision.
Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @JonDAdams with any fantasy football questions you may have. Click the next arrow to see my fantasy predictions for Week 7.
Start: WR Tyler Boyd at Chiefs
Sit: WR Sammy Watkins vs. Bengals
Boyd has been one of the pleasant surprises of the fantasy season. Boyd was a red zone monster against the Steelers with two touchdowns to go with his seven receptions for 62 yards. Boyd has had an opportunity to learn from one of the best receivers in the game, A.J. Green, something Boyd admitted has helped his progression.
“Coming in, watching him, helped my game,” Boyd told the Post-Gazette. “He helped me, learning how to play at the professional football level. He does everything right. He never takes a practice off. It’s his eighth year and he’s still going strong, like he’s still competing for a job, even though his job is solidified. You never hear about A.J. in trouble. He don’t drink, he don’t do anything.”
Boyd has had at least seven targets in five straight games, and most weeks he is getting much more than that. Boyd had nine targets in Week 6 and 15 targets in Week 4.
The Bengals offense gets a plus matchup this week against the Chiefs. Kansas City is giving up more than 340 yards per game, the second most in the NFL.
Boyd gives us the ideal combination in Week 7. The Bengals wide receiver is trending up, receiving a lot of targets and gets a great matchup against the Chiefs secondary. The Athletic's Joe Goodberry wrote in late September about how Boyd is making Andy Dalton a better quarterback.
"Dalton is targeting Boyd this season when he’s pressured,' Goodberry explained. "Dalton has thrown toward Boyd on nine plays in which he was feeling the heat through three weeks. No other receiver has seen the ball more than four times (Giovani Bernard and John Ross) in the same situations. Dalton has only thrown the ball away three times in 2018 and hasn’t done so in the last two weeks because Boyd is getting open in these crucial moments. He’s on pace to throw away the football half as many times as he did the last two years — a welcomed development in the quarterback’s game."
Sammy Watkins Cannot Be Trusted in Fantasy
The Chiefs offense is explosive, but that explosiveness has not always led to fantasy production for Watkins. The Chiefs wide receiver put together two solid weeks during Week 2-3. Since then, he has been inconsistent from week to week. Watkins had just two receptions for 18 yards against the Patriots. Patrick Mahomes is spreading the ball around, but that makes it difficult to predict when to put Watkins into your lineup.
According to CBS Sports, Watkins posted season lows in Week 6 in all statistical categories in games where he played the majority of snaps. The Bengals have one of the worst secondaries in the league, but we do not know if Watkins is going to produce.
This season is nothing new for Watkins. For all of his talent coming out of Clemson, Watkins has tended to be boom or bust in the NFL. I'm keeping him on my bench until he proves he is able to string multiple productive weeks together this season.
Start: TE David Njoku vs. Bucs
Sit: TE Charles Clay vs. Colts
By now, Njoku has become a must-start in fantasy with Baker Mayfield as the Browns quarterback. According to Rotoworld, Njoku had a season-high 11 targets in Week 5 then topped it with 12 targets last week. This week, he gets a plus matchup against a terrible Bucs defense. Rotoworld detailed why Njoku is becoming one of the top fantasy tight ends.
"Njoku found the end zone for the first time this season in the 4th quarter on a 1-yard touchdown pass with the game way out of hand," Rotoworld explained. "It was Njoku's first red zone target on the season. After a season-high 11 targets last week, Njoku received 12 more looks on Sunday, giving him 30 total targets over Baker Mayfield's three starts. Njoku is in a dream spot next week against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends to begin the season."
Tampa Bay is giving up the third-most passing yards in the league. The unit is so bad the team fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith after the game against the Falcons. Njoku has a chance to have his best fantasy outing of the season against the Bucs.
The Bills Offense Is a Mess
It is challenging to have any faith in a Bills player in fantasy. This week, there is uncertainty at quarterback with Josh Allen battling an elbow injury. Clay's lack of production has a lot to do with the inefficiency of the offense.
Clay does get a nice matchup against the Colts, but even a plus matchup is not enough for us to start Clay. Bills head coach Sean McDermott does not sound optimistic about the team.
“You saw some players out there today who probably could’ve done some better things," McDermott said per BuffaloBills.com. "They were young players so we’ve got to develop those players. Some of whom had their hands on the football and we can’t beat ourselves with penalties. We have to learn from it and move forward and continue to develop and you can’t beat yourself.”
If the Bills offense is able to stabilize at some point this season, Clay would be in line to once again be fantasy relevant. Until then, Clay is going to be on waiver wires across fantasy leagues as wise owners avoid the Bills offense. Clay has not had more than 40 yards in a game this season and is still waiting for his first touchdown. He had a combined five receptions for 32 yards in the last two games.
Start: RB Phillip Lindsay at Cardinals
Sit: RB Dalvin Cook at Jets
It was a disappointing week for both Broncos running backs. I feel more comfortable starting Lindsay than Royce Freeman, because he is consistently getting work in the passing game. Lindsay should at least be in the RB2 range in PPR league this week with a plus matchup against the Cardinals. Arizona is allowing the second-most rushing yards in the league with more than 151 yards per game. Lindsay would have had a better fantasy week if a touchdown had not been called back as Rotoworld detailed.
"Lindsay appeared to have a 12-yard receiving score in the third quarter, but it got called back by a Courtland Sutton offensive pass interference penalty," Rotoworld explained. "For the first time in a full game, Lindsay got out-carried by Royce Freeman, though he still out-touched and out-gained his rookie teammate. Both players continued to lose passing-down snaps to Devontae Booker, a weekly unforced error from the Broncos' under siege coaching staff. It was encouraging to see Lindsay catch six passes, a number that doubled his previous best total. Lindsay will remain on the RB2/3 borderline for Denver's short-week TNF matchup with the Cardinals."
The actual carries are going to be hard to predict from week to week given the Broncos are going with a committee approach. Lindsay has a lot more value in PPR leagues with the number of receptions he is getting on a weekly basis.
Dalvin Cook Continues to Disappoint
Cook was a late scratch last week after his status looked promising earlier in the week. Cook was ruled out after warming up before the game. Last time Cook played, he had 10 carries for 20 yards against the Rams and is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry this season. Cook has not rushed for more than 50 yards in a game this season. Even if Cook ends up playing this week against the Jets, he is likely going to be on a pitch count.
With Latavious Murray coming on strong, Cook is likely headed to a timeshare once he returns. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer only had positive things to say about Murray after his Week 6 performance.
“That was big, that we stopped them on the goal line on four plays,” Zimmer told the Star Tribune. “We made a nice play on the pass [on third down] and then our guys — we talk about changing the line of scrimmage, changing the mentality, getting our pads low. That is really what it was all about there. It’s about mentality when you get down on the goal line.”
You are unlikely going to be able to get much in return for Cook in a trade, but it is worth exploring. One of the reasons Cook slipped in the draft was fear about his durability. So far in his young career, those concerns have unfortunately proven to be valid. If you also have Murray on your roster, you should feel more optimistic moving forward.
Start: WR Sterling Shepard at Falcons
Sit: WR Corey Davis vs. Chargers
The Giants offense looked abysmal last week against the Eagles but have an opportunity to turn things around against a depleted Falcons secondary. The last time Shepard faced a weak secondary, he had 10 receptions for 77 yards and a touchdown against the Saints in Week 4.
Despite many calling for a quarterback change, Giants head coach Pat Shurmur reiterated the team's faith in Eli Manning. The Giants may have gotten off to a slow start, but Manning remains confident that things can turn around.
"Confidence is always the same," Manning told Giants.com. "I know I can play better. I didn’t play well last night. I got to make better decisions, and get back to just doing my job, not trying to do anything more, not trying to force things. Just find completions and move the ball, and try to score more points."
The Falcons defense did look a bit better in Week 6 but still allowed 395 passing yards even in their improved state. Tampa Bay had five receivers with more than 50 receiving yards. There is going to be plenty of room for Shepard to have himself a day against the Falcons, even if Odell Beckham goes off in Atlanta.
Even though Shepard's production has been a bit inconsistent, the targets have been there most weeks. Shepard has received seven or more targets in five of his six games. Look for him to have a bounce-back week against the Falcons.
Corey Davis' Inconsistency Makes Him a Sit
We though Davis had turned the corner after his Week 4 breakout performance against the Eagles where he had nine receptions for 161 yards. Davis followed it up with a total of five receptions in the last two games. Last week, he had one reception for 24 yards against the Ravens.
Some of Davis' lack of production can be explained by the Titans offensive line getting torched. The Ravens were able to sack Marcus Mariota 11 times which played a big part in Davis' lack of touches. Titans coach Mike Vrabel spoke about the Titans lack of offensive production after being shutout against the Ravens.
"It starts with the play call, it starts with the preparation, it starts with the route, it starts then with the protection," Vrabel said per Titansonline.com. "Everything has to work and coordinate together. If they’re pressuring us, we’ve got to be able to give the quarterback enough time to be able to get to a receiver who’s got to be maybe adjusting his route a little bit because of the pressure, but they clearly made a decision that they were going to pressure and they did that."
Until we see Davis put up two straight weeks of production, the Titans wide receiver should remain on your bench. Week 7 is not a particularly great matchup against the Chargers defense. The Titans are unlikely to have much fantasy production until their offensive line shows improvement.
Baltimore Ravens QB Joe Flacco
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 7 Predictions