After all the Turkey, stuffing and other Thanksgiving food and fun, the NFL has offered up a nightcap in the form of an NFC South rivalry. As we've become accustomed to in recent years, there are three games throughout the day on Thanksgiving, and this year the night game features the Atlanta Falcons taking on the New Orleans Saints.
And for all the fantasy football players out there, it's another opportunity to jump in on the action. While the Falcons vs. Saints game will be featured on the main slate for the day (which includes all three games), the DraftKings showdown for it should make for an interesting one.
We've already covered the showdown slates for both the Bears vs. Lions and Redskins vs. Cowboys, but now it's onto a game between two teams who can light up the scoreboard.
For the Falcons (4-6), this is a game which could define their season. They've now lost back-to-back games and falling to the Saints (9-1) would leave their playoff outlook incredibly bleak. On the Saints side, they're trucking towards the No. 1 seed in the NFC and are looking good thanks to a win over the Los Angeles Rams and a nine-game win streak.
Let's dive into the showdown slate between these high-scoring teams and evaluate the top plays and best lineups. In this article, I'll break down general rules of showdowns, top choices for captains (more on that ahead) and then lay out my top plays and optimal lineups for the different types of games.
For the final game on the Thanksgiving slate, I'll offer three different lineups. This will include an optimal lineup which features a mixture of top plays and values, a 150-max option (more risk, high upside) and a single-entry/cash lineup (high floor, less risk).
One thing worth mentioning about showdown games before we dive in is that you'll select one captain for each lineup. This player will cost you 1.5-times their normal price but also scores 1.5x the points for being your captain choice.
Here's a look at the rules of showdown games and basic concepts behind how the games work.
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
We'll start with the break down of captains and lay out the top choices for that spot in the Falcons vs. Saints matchup.
Favorite Captains for Falcons vs. Saints
We're looking at an absurdly high projected total in this game. As Odds Shark reveals, the current over/under is set at 60.5 points, so oddsmakers believe the teams will put major points on the board, although the Saints are 12.5-point favorites. Realistically, going with a mixture of high-price and salary-saving captains makes sense. I'll typically spread them around a fair amount and go with my top options in the highest number of lineups.
For the specific choices, I'd recommend keeping 4-6 names as options when constructing lineups, as it'll allow you to be more creative. I'll put out my favorites below and while this doesn't mean I'll use each of the names, they're my top players to target. Each player below from the DraftKings Falcons vs. Saints showdown includes captain pricing of 1.5x more than standard.
If I do wind up using a captain not listed below in a lineup, I'll detail the reasoning for it in the lineup section.
– Alvin Kamara ($16,500)
– Michael Thomas ($17,100)
– Drew Brees ($15,000)
– Julio Jones ($15,600)
– Tre'Quan Smith ($9,600)*
– Mohamed Sanu ($7,500)
*Tre'Quan Smith is questionable – if out, Keith Kirkwood ($2,100) is a great and inexpensive option at captain.
Additional names to consider as captain: Mark Ingram ($12,000), Wil Lutz ($5,100), Saints DST ($4,200)
There's no way to really sugarcoat the captain situation in this game. The top names and most expensive players are simply some of the best options. Fortunately, we do have a few interesting options who won't break the bank and will allow you to get multiple high-priced players in as flex options.
I love the Saints' offensive trio of Kamara, Thomas and Brees, as each is primed for huge games. The Falcons defense across the board has struggled and there's virtually no reason to believe they'll slow down one of the top offenses in the NFL. For comparison's sake, the Saints rank No. 1 in the NFL in points per game offensively (37.8) while the Falcons allow the fourth-most points on average (27.6).
There's certainly an argument to be made for dropping down to some of the less-expensive captains to allow yourself the option to have multiple top plays. In doing so, there's certainly the risk that a player like Kamara goes off for 35 fantasy points and picks up that 1.5x bonus, which is essentially like having another player.
Let's start with the optimal lineup and I'll dive deeper into the specific plays.
Optimal Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Drew Brees ($15,000)
– Michael Thomas ($11,400)
– Matt Ryan ($8,600)
– Tre'Quan Smith ($6,400)
– Mohamed Sanu ($5,000)
– Wil Lutz ($3,400)
Lineup if Tre'Quan Smith is out:
– CAPTAIN: Drew Brees ($15,000)
– Michael Thomas ($11,400)
– Julio Jones ($10,400)
– Matt Ryan ($8,600)
– Matt Bryant ($3,000)
– Keith Kirkwood ($1,400)
For the top optimal I'm going to approach it by breaking down the names who may not jump out as the most obvious of plays. I'll also mix in some spots on the bigger names but expand on those as we move along as well. Options like Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara are simply elite plays and can be considered in most lineups.
I think Matt Ryan is going to be lower owned than he should be this week after a mediocre showing in Atlanta's loss last game. It's easy to forget just how good Ryan has been at multiple points this season. He's topped 22.2 DraftKings points in seven of the last nine games and gone over the 30-point mark five times on the year.
The Saints defense has been much improved recently, but they've still allowed 2,955 yards and 19 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. While they're a better unit than the first time the two teams met, Ryan torched them in that game for five touchdowns and 374 yards. With the Falcons facing somewhat of a must-win spot, I think Ryan is a great option at a very affordable price.
I'm partially hopeful Tre'Quan Smith plays because this is a monster spot for him. But on the flip side, Keith Kirkwood flashed some legitimate upside last week and provides a ton of salary relief. Regardless, if Smith plays I think it's a spot that'll be hard to pass up with this price. The Falcons have given up 1,805 yards and 14 touchdowns to wide receivers this season.
To make Smith's spot even more appealing, the Falcons have been horrible at generating pressure, so Drew Brees is going to have days to throw in this game. The rookie wideout should be able to get behind the Falcons defense and allow Brees to hit him on a few long ones throughout Thursday's game.
While I know many people aren't interested in kickers, for the most part, this is a great way to get salary relief in a game like this. If you have an expensive option in the captain spot who goes for 30-40 DraftKings points, that 1.5x bonus makes a huge difference, so getting a reliable kicker like Wil Lutz or Matt Bryant is ideal. For what it's worth, Lutz has topped 11 fantasy points in each of the last four games. You'd be hard-pressed to find that production from another player at $3,400.
Let's look at the 150-max lineup which has major upside with some risk involved.
150-Max Entry Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Matt Ryan ($12,900)
– Michael Thomas ($11,400)
– Alvin Kamara ($11,000)
– Drew Brees ($10,000)
– Ito Smith ($2,600)
– Ben Watson ($2,000)
For the 150-max lineup, there's going to be some legitimate risk involved, and while I approach each one with a different plan, I'm going to take somewhat of a different route here. In most cases, I'll sort of "punt" one player with the expectation that they'll need to score or see an increased workload to produce.
In this spot, I'm going to use a duo of Ito Smith and Ben Watson for two different reasons. While Smith's actually a target who intrigues me a bit partially due to his pass-catching ability, I could see him surprising and making a difference in this game. The Falcons back seems to be one of those players who needs to get rolling for his production to snowball into something beautiful.
Smith's matchup isn't ideal, as the Saints have been excellent against running backs this season. But rookie out of SMU is a far better player than his $2,600 price tag shows. I'm betting on him showing up and making an impact in this game, and there's certainly a risk, but he should have low ownership and if it hits, you'll be poised for a big finish.
Watson's matchup isn't bad, as the Falcons have given up 48 receptions for 482 yards and three touchdowns on the year to tight ends. And considering we're looking at a game with a projected total of over 60 points, there's plenty of reason to think he'll bounce back and see multiple targets and possibly red zone chances.
The issue with Watson is more about his own production. He's gone catch-less in two of the last four games and had just one grab in the other game. Compared to the rest of his season, though, these three games are outliers. Of the Saints' other seven games, Watson received at least four targets in six of them, with the seventh resulting in three looks coming his way.
Going this route allows me to load up on players who all have the realistic potential to score 30-plus points and possibly even the upwards of 40. If the "big four" of Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan can top 30 points and we get production from the other two, this lineup shapes up nicely.
We'll look at the single entry/cash lineup next which is the far safer option in comparison to the 150-max.
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Mohamed Sanu ($7,500)
– Michael Thomas ($11,400)
– Julio Jones ($10,400)
– Drew Brees ($10,000)
– Tre'Quan Smith ($6,400)
– Wil Lutz ($3,400)
Lineup if Tre'Quan Smith is out:
– CAPTAIN: Mohamed Sanu ($7,500)
– Michael Thomas ($11,400)
– Julio Jones ($10,400)
– Drew Brees ($10,000)
– Mark Ingram ($8,000)
– Ito Smith ($2,600)
I fully plan on having quite a bit of Tre'Quan Smith if he plays, but we need to plan accordingly for the possibility he sits. With the "safe" lineup here, I chose to pay down a bit at captain and go with Falcons wideout Mohamed Sanu. While most will flock to the other Falcons pass-catchers, this is where we can find some exceptional value with big upside.
As Rotoworld's Evan Silva detailed, Sanu runs 76 percent of his snaps out of the slot, meaning he'll ace P.J. Williams, who's had some legitimate struggles this season. He has the best matchup of any Falcons wide receiver and the potential to post a big game and even top the 100-yard mark while finding the end zone.
Sanu's value in the captain spot lets us add on two of the NFL's top pass-catchers with him in Julio Jones and Michael Thomas. Both players should have little trouble pushing for a least one score and should each see double-digit targets. With the potential for this game to turn into a shootout, I'm a fan of getting top pass-catchers on each side and this handles that perfectly.
The Drew Brees play doesn't need a ton of explanation, but there's a reason why he's pushing towards the NFL's Most Valuable Player award. He's thrown 25 touchdowns with just one interception all year and is completing 76.9 percent of his passes. The Falcons have been brutally bad against both quarterbacks and wide receivers (and running backs, for that matter), so it's like the perfect storm.
Brees should torch a Falcons defense that's allowed 2,959 yards and 21 touchdowns this season. Putting him together with Thomas and Smith, especially if the Falcons are able to keep this game close, makes for a great way to construct lineups. It all depends on the way you believe game flow will go, but there's both safety and upside with this lineup.
Finally, my push to play more kickers in this game continues. I simply think Wil Lutz's floor is safe and that he's a solid single entry/cash play. There's not a ton of risk and I'm not going to try to bet that the Falcons defense suddenly comes to life and finds a way to hold one of the NFL's best offenses in check. Especially not in a national game on their own home field.
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