We're now left with one game on the Week 12 slate, and it's a Monday Night Football matchup between the Houston Texans (7-3) and Tennessee Titans (5-5). The game has plenty of meaning for both teams, as the Texans are now just one game ahead of the Indianapolis Colts, although they did defeat them earlier this year.
The Titans actually defeated the Texans back in Week 2 of the season, so a victory for Tennessee could go a long way towards keeping them in the AFC South title mix. They have some catching up to do but would be just one game back from Houston and holding a key tiebreaker with a win on Monday.
With this being a game which has playoff implications, there are fantasy football games offered in one-game slates across the board. Specifically, DraftKings is offering their showdown option, and we're going to lay out the top picks, lineups and some insight into the game for it. It's an interesting matchup with plenty of players capable of producing from a fantasy perspective, making this a great showdown option.
Let's dive into the showdown slate between these two teams led by their young quarterbacks and evaluate the top plays and best lineups. Before we get into the actual lineups, I'll break down general rules of showdowns, top choices for the captain spot and then lineups for each of the specific game types offered.
This will feature three different lineups which are created for the style of game that you're playing. I'll start with an optimal lineup built around a mixture of my favorite plays, one or two values and a bit of risk. There will also be a 150-max option which has more risk, but also additional upside, and finally a single-entry/cash lineup (high floor, less risk).
Previously, the captain spot was mentioned, and I'll evaluate the choices for that as well. When choosing a captain it's a player who will cost you 1.5-times his normal salary but also totals 1.5x the points. There's a fair amount of strategy that can go into choosing captains, and the top choices for that spot will be listed.
Let's start with showdown rules and the general idea behind how the DraftKings games work.
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
First up are the top choices for captain in the Titans vs. Texans matchup and a few options, both expensive and inexpensive, jump out.
Favorite Captains for Titans vs. Texans
After seeing a few NFL primetime games with high projected totals, this matchup brings it back down to earth just a bit. As Odds Shark shows, the over/under is set at 42.5 with the current favorite still pointing to the over. While both the Titans and Texans have proven capable of putting points on the board at times, their average points per game (23.9 for Houston, 17.8 for Tennessee) explain this number.
The projected total can impact both how you approach picking captains and also building lineups. It does depend on how you believe the game flow will go, and that's a large factor in my thinking throughout the process. I'll detail that while I explain each lineup and how it impacts a few key decisions on players.
As far as the specific choices go, I'd recommend keeping 4-6 names on the table, as it'll allow you to be more creative. You should certainly have a few select favorites, though, and I'll put out my top choices below. I may not use each of these players, but will likely spread them around across various lineups. Each player below from Monday's DraftKings showdown includes captain pricing of 1.5-times more than their regular cost.
– DeAndre Hopkins ($18,900)
– Deshaun Watson ($17,700)
– Marcus Mariota ($15,000)
– Corey Davis ($12,600)
– Dion Lewis ($11,700)
– Jonnu Smith ($6,000)
*Keke Coutee ($12,900), Ka'imi Fairbairn/Ryan Succop ($5,400/$4,500) and Cameron Batson ($300) are worth considering in some spots
Favorite expensive/mid-range captains: DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson
Top value-saving captains: Jonnu Smith, Corey Davis (still semi-expensive)
We'll kick things off with the optimal lineup and I'll dive deeper into the specific plays as we roll through each.
Optimal Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Jonnu Smith ($6,000)
– DeAndre Hopkins ($12,600)
– Deshaun Watson ($11,800)
– Corey Davis ($8,400)
– Dion Lewis ($7,800)
– Ryan Succop ($3,000)
The Jonnu Smith hype train is picking up steam and I've officially hopped on board. The Titans tight end is coming off a game in which he saw a single game career-high in both targets (eight) and receptions (six). He totaled 44 yards in that game, and in each of the two games prior managed to find the end zone.
Smith's arrow is pointing up in a big way as he gets more comfortable in the Tennessee offense. To make his spot even more appealing, the Texans have allowed 52 receptions for 583 yards and five touchdowns this season to opposing tight ends. He's the most cost-effective captain option on the slate, and I like how much using him as both a captain or flex play opens up the rest of the lineup.
I'll likely have the Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins stack in the bulk of my lineups. While the Texans have done their best to monitor Watson's workload a bit in recent weeks due to early-season injuries, this is a good spot for him to have a big game. The Titans run defense is impressive, and while they are solid against opposing quarterbacks, the same can't be said for receivers.
Hopkins finds himself with arguably the best spot on this showdown slate. He faces a good personal matchup and the Titans as a whole have allowed 1,838 yards and 14 touchdowns this season to wide receivers. It's a monster spot for him and one where I expect him to potentially pull down two touchdowns or at the very least top 100 yards with ease.
As far as the Dion Lewis spot goes, it's actually a pretty interesting debate between using the Titans back or Lamar Miller. While Miller has the worse matchup due to the lack of success pass-catching backs have had against Tennessee, Lewis is in a tough spot as well. Houston has allowed just 771 yards and five touchdowns on the ground this season. The big difference is the success through the air, which is why Lewis gets the nod.
On the season, the Texans have given up 54 receptions for 406 yards and five touchdowns through the air to opposing backs. On the flip side, the Titans have allowed 42 catches for 292 yards and no touchdowns. Smith has more appeal due to his pass-catching and I expect to see him get a solid number of targets here.
I cited both kickers in the captain section, and while there's not a ton of need to dive deep into the two options, this game has the perfect setup to be a field goal fest. The Texans defense should be able to keep the Titans from scoring a large number of touchdowns and their passing game will do more than enough to be in field goal range. Both Ryan Succop and Ka'imi Fairbairn are in play for this slate with solid floors.
The 150-max lineup features a fair amount of upside but certainly comes with risk as well.
150-Max Entry Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Corey Davis ($12,600)
– DeAndre Hopkins ($12,600)
– Deshaun Watson ($11,800)
– Keke Coutee ($8,600)
– Jonnu Smith ($4,000)
– Cameron Batson ($200)
I didn't lie about the Jonnu Smith interest, and he's certainly going in the 150-max as a way to free up cash at other spots. He's going to have fairly high ownership, so finding a way to differentiate otherwise could be pretty vital in this spot. This is why we turned to another Titans pass-catcher, who has the chance to get overlooked.
Cameron Batson certainly comes with risk, but that's fairly obvious considering his $200 price tag. He's essentially a free square here, but there's some reason to consider using him. For what it's worth, though, I wouldn't go into building a lineup with Batson in which you have an expectation that he just has a monster breakout game. Temper expectations, but in a potentially low-scoring game, someone who can catch 3-4 passes at this price is ideal.
Over the past three games, Batson has seen 30, 34 and 39 snaps, in that order, per Football Outsiders. His time on the field has increased consistently and the last two games came without Taywan Taylor. After Taylor was originally listed as a game-time decision for Monday, ESPN's Turron Davenport revealed he was downgraded to out.
With Taylor out, Batson should be locked in into 60-plus percent of the team's snaps. He'll still be the team's third option at wideout, but he's going to get the reps and I'll have him spread around some 150-max games.
Speaking of Titans receivers, Corey Davis is in a great spot here. While the Texans are good against opposing receivers, Davis is set to avoid a tough matchup in Aaron Colvin and provides big upside. Marcus Mariota left last game due to injury and in turn, he saw just four targets, but in the three weeks prior had combined for 27 looks and 15 catches.
I think we'll see Davis post a big stat line here and he caught 5-of-7 targets for 55 yards when these two teams met earlier in the year. That came before his breakout performance two weeks later against the Philadelphia Eagles as well. Expecting 100-yards and one score from the second-year wideout doesn't seem unrealistic.
Finally, I'm rounding out the 150-max line by stacking up the Texans passing game. I do believe each of these players will have a fair amount of ownership, but putting them all in one stack should help differentiate at least slightly. There's some risk with Keke Coutee depending on how the Texans opt to roll out Demaryius Thomas.
With that said, Thomas didn't receive a single target last game and had just three first-quarter catches against his former team the week prior. This means he hasn't caught a pass or even seen a target in seven quarters with his new team. And last game was Coutee's return from injury, leading to him seeing nine targets from Deshaun Watson and catching five for 77 yards.
Although Coutee was out-snapped by Thomas last game 46-42 (per Football Outsiders), it's obvious his playmaking ability is going to be big for this team moving forward. As long as the Texans don't force the action to Thomas, then the rookie out of Texas Tech will get plenty of work against the Titans.
The single entry/cash lineup next features a fair amount of safer options in comparison to the 150-max and is better suited for single entry and cash games.
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Jonnu Smith ($6,000)
– DeAndre Hopkins ($12,600)
– Deshaun Watson ($11,800)
– Marcus Mariota ($10,000)
– Tajae Sharpe ($4,800)/Texas DST ($5,400)
– Ka'imi Fairbairn ($3,600)
*Note: Switching Tajae Sharpe for the Texans DST is a fine play, as they arguably have a safer floor. I think Sharpe will see a solid volume of work based on Taywan Taylor sitting out, and most people don't love pairing a defense and kicker together, but it makes a lot of sense in this type of game.
I'll likely mix and match the option of using Tajae Sharpe and the Texans defense in this spot. If you think the Texans run away with this game or simply hold the Titans offense in check, then Houston's defense is the way to go. On the flip side, Sharpe has a tough matchup but will receive a fair number of targets. He saw seven looks last game and caught five fo them for 37 yards and one touchdown.
With Taylor out, Sharpe should be a lock for 90-plus percent of the team's offensive snaps. He's shown solid rapport with Marcus Mariota and while he had a one-catch game against the Dallas Cowboys, a large part of that had to do with him suffering a pregame setback. The week just prior was Sharpe's best, as he caught seven balls for 101 yards.
I'm also back on the Jonnu Smith train here, but I will say that he won't be in as many of my lineups as it seems. That's not to say I don't love his spot and upside, but I try to avoid going with any type of risk in more than 50-60 percent of lineups unless it's just an elite situation. Regardless, Smith has a safe floor and is going to see his work while also being a name who benefits from Taylor's absence.
There's no surprise with the Deshaun Watson pairing with DeAndre Hopkins and I raved previously about how much I like both plays. Each player has the potential to be the highest-scoring player on the slate. I'll have both as captains in various spots as well, but I do think that we'll see somewhat of a lower-scoring game, which is why I didn't force either into the captain spot for these lineups.
Marcus Mariota is an interesting target and his price makes him even more appealing. Although the Titans young quarterback dealt with some sort of a neck stinger last game, he's good to go for this matchup. The Texans pass defense is good, but Mariota had scored five touchdowns over a two-game span prior to being injured against the Colts.
Speaking of that game against Indianapolis Mariota was off to a fine start there also, completing 10-of-13 passes for 85 yards with four rushing attempts. Tennessee's quarterback helps to provide a safe floor due to his ability as a runner, and he's run at least four times in five games this season. If he's able to take off a few times in this game, he'll have little problem posting fine numbers and the potential to have a big day.
READ NEXT: NFL Power Rankings Week 13: Bears Rapidly Rise, Saints Remain Elite
DraftKings NFL Picks & Optimal Lineups for Titans vs. Texans Showdown