It's time for the always-exciting Thanksgiving NFL slate, and as fans have become accustomed to in recent seasons, it'll feature three total games Thursday. But this year, we have a few different ways to attack the games from a fantasy football perspective. While there's a regular slate, we also have DraftKings showdown slates for all three games.
While I'll break down each of the games, the action kicks off with a game between two division rivals in the Chicago Bears (7-3) against the Detroit Lions (4-6). The Bears are coming off a Sunday Night Football victory last week against the Minnesota Vikings, but are in an interesting spot. Second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky's status for the game is up in the air, and that will be worth monitoring moving forward.
If you've never played a showdown before, it's a fair amount different in terms of building lineups and how players are priced. You're simply choosing six players from one specific game and have to stay under the salary cap in the process. I'll break down the specific game (Bears vs. Lions in this case), my top options and why I built each lineup the way I did.
For the start of the Thanksgiving slate, I'll offer three different lineups, covering the main different types of games you can play. It includes an optimal lineup which I feel good about using in a variety of spots, a 150-max option (more risk as they are tougher to win) and a single-entry/cash lineup (high floor, less risk).
One key thing to note about showdown games is that you also have to select one captain for your team. This player will cost you 1.5-times their normal price but also scores 1.5x the points for being your captain choice. Before we get into the actual lineups, as a way to give additional insight into the thought process, I'll lay out my top captains choices as well.
First, here's a look at the rules of showdown games and basic concepts behind how the games work.
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
Due to the fact that you're only selecting six players, it'll be pretty vital to differentiate yourself as much as possible. I'll offer some thoughts on the best ways to do that, specifically with your captain choice. The decision between going inexpensive or paying up at that spot can be key to fantasy success in a showdown slate such as this one where there are a few intriguing options.
Let's start there, as we have some strong captain options for the Bears vs. Lions matchup.
Favorite Captains for Bears vs. Lions
The matchup between the Bears and Lions is an interesting, as it's not projected to be incredibly high scoring game. Currently, the total on this game sits around 44.5 points, but each team has some solid matchups from a fantasy perspective. Choosing captains can be somewhat tough in games like this, but a few names on each side stand out both due to those matchups and also their price.
As far as the specific captain choices go, I'll offer 4-6 names that I'll consider and layout the top choices. This doesn't mean I'll use each of the names, but I allow myself flexibility when building lineups typically. The names I'll break down for DraftKings showdowns below all include captain pricing of 1.5x more than standard.
Note: Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is dealing with a shoulder injury and his status for this game is up in the air. If he's healthy enough to play, he's one of the better captains in this game, but his price ($16,800) is certainly high.
– Matthew Stafford ($14,100)
– Kenny Golladay ($15,900)
– Tarik Cohen ($12,900)
– Theo Riddick ($11,400)
– Anthony Miller ($11,700)
– Bruce Ellington ($4,200)
*Marvin Jones is a solid option if he plays (looks unlikely), Bears DST ($7,200), Trey Burton ($6,900) also options
Favorite expensive/mid-range captains: Matthew Stafford, Tarik Cohen
Top value-saving captains: Bruce Ellington, Chase Daniel
This is an interesting spot as Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky is dealing with a shoulder injury suffered on Sunday Night Football last week. With a quick turnaround, it wouldn't be surprising if he sits out. If that's the case, then we're looking at a value play at quarterback in Chase Daniel who wouldn't need to do a ton to hit value. If Trubisky is out, Daniel is an interesting option at captain.
Trubisky's status also impacts the wide receivers and Tarik Cohen. If I believe the lineup I create will be impacted drastically by Trubisky's status, I'll offer two lines. More specifically, be sure to check back for any updates once final news on his status is revealed. Regardless, I think Cohen is again a solid play. He let down fantasy players last week by rushing for just 27 yards and turning three receptions into 23 yards. Expect more this week, especially if Daniel starts.
We also have an injury on the other side with Lions wide receiver Marvin Jones Jr. potentially out. It seems likely Jones will not play and I'll build lineups with that thought process. He missed last game and through Tuesday was unable to practice. If he misses this game, Bruce Ellington (questionable, expected to play) has a tremendous chance at producing a solid stat line once again.
Lions receiver TJ Jones is incredibly cheap on this slate ($3,000 as captain). But although he's seen 69 and 64 percent of snaps the last two games (per Football Outsiders), it's resulted in just two catches for 14 yards. He's an option in 150-max games to differentiate lineups, but I won't go crazy using him.
Let's jump into it and start with the optimal lineup where I'll dive deeper into the specific plays.
Optimal Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Tarik Cohen ($12,900)
– Kenny Golladay ($10,600)
– Matthew Stafford ($9,400)
– Anthony Miller ($7,800)
– Chase Daniel ($6,200)
– Bruce Ellington ($2,800)
Optimal if Trubisky plays:
– CAPTAIN: Mitchell Trubisky ($16,800)
– Matthew Stafford ($9,400)
– Tarik Cohen ($8,600)
– Theo Riddick ($7,600)
– Bears DST ($4,800)
– Bruce Ellington ($2,800)
Tarik Cohen has a good chance to right the ship quickly here, while Jordan Howard eats into his workload and actually saw more snaps last game, I love Cohen's upside. The Bears try a variety of ways to get the ball into his hands and I expect that to be the case on Thanksgiving. The Lions have allowed 52 receptions for 438 receiving yards and two touchdowns to opposing backs this season.
While I love the Bears defense due to their high floor and affordable price tag, I do expect Matthew Stafford to have success through the air. He may not throw five touchdown passes, but he's tossed at least two scores on five of the last six Thanksgiving games. Sure, that stat doesn't have much to do with the current team or current roster, but the Lions have faced a few solid defenses over the years.
When factoring in that I believe Stafford does find the end zone a few times, it leads to Kenny Golladay potentially being worth that lofty price tag. It's somewhat surprising that Golladay is the second most expensive player on the slate (behind Trubisky), but he has arguably the highest upside of any player. I expect his touchdown stretch to move to three on Thursday and he's caught 14 passes in the past two games.
Speaking of Lions receivers, I'm a big fan of Bruce Ellington, and honestly, I've always thought he had quite a bit of talent but never received a major chance. He received that opportunity last week with a wide receiver-needy Lions team and caught 6-of-9 targets for 52 yards. It's worth noting he played fewer snaps (33 to 45) than Jones, but far outproduced him.
Ellington's price makes him incredibly appealing as it won't take a ton for him to hit value here. More importantly, I think he'll continue to see work regardless over Jones as Stafford obviously trusts his new receiver. For good measure, the Bears have allowed 148 receptions for 1,841 yards and 10 touchdowns to wide receivers, struggling against the position.
I'll expand more on the Chase Daniel and Anthony Miller spots as we roll along, but this duo could potentially make for an interesting stack, especially when paired with Cohen. I previously mentioned the fact Daniel doesn't need a ton to hit value. If he tosses two touchdowns than this is an excellent spot and he allows you to get other expensive players into the lineup as well thanks to his price.
Let's evaluate the 150-max lineup which has multiple high-upside options, but also a bit more risk with it.
Theo Riddick
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Chase Daniel ($9,300)
– Kenny Golladay ($10,600)
– Matthew Stafford ($9,400)
– Tarik Cohen ($8,600)
– Theo Riddick ($7,600)
– Bruce Ellington ($2,800)
Lineup if Trubisky plays:
– CAPTAIN: Matthew Stafford ($14,100)
– Mitchell Trubisky ($11,200)
– Kenny Golladay ($10,600)
– Theo Riddick ($7,600)
– Cody Parkey ($3,600)
– Bruce Ellington ($2,800)
I'm fully expecting most to see a "safe" lineup including Chase Daniel and Bruce Ellington and have quite a few questions, which is fair. To be clear, I don't just view Daniel as salary filler, and while that may be a riskier approach than some opt to take, I think he can put points on the board.
The Lions have allowed 2,597 yards and 22 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks while intercepting just four passes all year. In short, the Detroit pass defense isn't striking fear into the hearts of the Bears offense right now, with or without Trubisky. Daniel's price is low to the point where I don't believe he just hits value, I think he'll roll over it.
Another interesting aspect of this lineup is the four Lions players together, a move typically more focused on 150-max games. With how unique and strange this showdown game is, I'd actually be fine using this lineup in a tournament. But to be clear, Matthew Stafford throws the ball a ton and with Kerryon Johnson likely out, that's not going to change.
It actually wouldn't be surprising if Stafford's attempts go up, which is eye-opening since he's thrown at least 36 passes in each of the past four games. Kenny Golladay is going to get his work, which I spoke about before, and I don't think the Bears will be able to shut him down. Then we'll pair that up with Theo Riddick as a safe option and pass-catching safety valve for Stafford against a Bears defense that can create pressure.
Ellington, if he's healthy and active, has surpassed TJ Jones in Stafford's eyes it seems. I think he's a fine play and will provide a safe floor. I have no problem with him in all formats and think what we saw from him last week was just a start.
One name I want to mention from the second line (if Trubisky plays) is Anthony Miller, as he's an interesting name. Miller is priced just $800 below Tarik Cohen and above Riddick by $200. Most will likely look at those two ahead of Miller so I may have more ownership in him than the field. He caught just 2-of-3 targets for 25 yards last game, but the man has a knack for the end zone this season.
Miller has scored in four of the last six games and five of the last eight. He's also received at least six targets in four of five games, with the lone exception being that last game in which the Bears had a lead against the Minnesota Vikings.
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