It's time for the Week 11 of the NFL season to get underway, which of course means fantasy football players need to gear up for Thursday Night Football. While fans endured a rough Monday night game to finish last week between the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers, it's a different story to start the new week. Thursday night offers a game between two playoff contenders and some strong single-game fantasy options.
The Green Bay Packers (4-4-1) and Seattle Seahawks (4-5) are both in need of as many wins as possible moving forward. Currently, the Seahawks are looking way up at the nine-win Los Angeles Rams while the Packers are behind both the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. It's Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson squaring off in a primetime, so let's talk fantasy.
We're going to check out the DraftKings offerings for their showdown slate, and as usual, it features some solid options and a few unique ways to build lineups. This slate features the popular $10 option which has a guarantee of $1 million and $250,000 to first place. There are also a few high-dollar options with big guarantees ($180 buy-in, $100,000 guaranteed) and less-expensive ones ($3 buy-in, $250,000 guaranteed), so there's plenty to consider.
In breaking down the Thursday Night Football matchup, I'll create multiple different lineups, offer picks and give insight into the various options on the slate. This will include three unique lineups, one of which is the optimal (well-rounded), a 150-max option (high ceiling, boom-or-bust) and a single-entry/cash lineup (high floor).
Showdown games are different than your normal daily fantasy game, so there are a variety of ways to go about creating lineups for them. You'll select six players from any position you want as opposed to fielding an entire roster, and it features just the Packers vs. Seahawks game. Before we get too deep into the lineups, I'll first evaluate my favorite captain options, a spot which features a higher price tag but a bonus for the player in that spot.
Here's a look at how showdown games work along with the rules to make sure you're set for the Week 11 action.
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
Constructing of lineups in showdown games can be both tough and interesting, as you need to do your best to find an edge, especially in 150-max games. With only six players selected, differentiating yourself from the field is going to be key, but fortunately, there are a variety of ways to that. One of those focuses on the captain spot, as the 1.5x points you earn there can make a world of difference, so we'll evaluate that a bit more in-depth as we lay out each lineup.
I'll first break down my favorite captain plays for Packers vs. Seahawks and evaluate the ones which stand out most.
Favorite Captains for Packers vs. Seahawks
When choosing captains, I'll cut the list down to anywhere between 4-6 players, depending on the slate. This is more than some players choose to go with, but I try to leave myself flexibility as the construction of rosters can lead to you having to pivot around a bit. The names I'll break down for DraftKings showdowns below all include captain pricing of 1.5x more than standard.
Along with the names below, there's a chance I'll use a few other players in certain spots, but that depends on the risk/reward of going cheap in the captain spot. The other options to consider as captains are names I'll use in lineups, though, as I try to lock in on a core of my favorite targets across the board and build around them.
– Russell Wilson ($18,300)
– Davante Adams ($17,700)
– Aaron Jones ($13,500)
– Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($11,700)
– Doug Baldwin ($10,800)
– Chris Carson ($7,500)
*Aaron Rodgers ($19,200, too expensive as captain for me), Tyler Lockett ($12,000), Jimmy Graham ($8,400, revenge) are also in play.
Favorite expensive/mid-range captains: Love top three quite a bit
Top value-saving captains: Chris Carson, Marquez Valdes-Scantling (both priced too low)
I'll likely mix up the options between expensive and salary-saving plays at captain in this game. I like Russell Wilson quite a bit, specifically due to the recent struggles of the Packers. Along with that, Wilson has run the ball quite a bit more as of late now that he's healthy (more to come on that). There's a good chance the Seahawks quarterback has the highest ceiling of anyone in this game.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a name I expect to have huge ownership here due to his price. The Packers are without Randall Cobb for this game, so it'll be a lot of Valdes-Scantling and Davante Adams. Obviously, putting a top wideout in a solid spot at captain when his price doesn't break the bank is appealing to build around.
Aaron Jones will likely be the highest owned player, but understandably so. He's picked up steam in recent weeks and looks to be completely dominant right now. In the Packers' Week 10 game against the Miami Dolphins, Jones saw his most touches of the season (18). He turned 15 carries into 145 yards (9.7 yards per carry) while scoring touchdowns.
Let's dive right in and check out the optimal lineup first and move along to the 150-max and single entry/cash lineups after.
Optimal Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Chris Carson ($7,500)
– Russell Wilson ($12,200)
– Aaron Jones ($9,000)
– Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,800)
– Doug Baldwin ($7,200)
– Jimmy Graham ($5,600)
Chris Carson does come with some risk, but not enough for me to move off him. He was removed completely from the Seahawks' injury report and has seemingly improved since sitting out last game. Most importantly, Carson has been the team's workhorse back prior to Week 10, to the point that it's hard to ignore.
While Carson sat out the second half of the team's Week 9 game, he received eight carries in the first half and totaled 40 yards. In the four games prior to that, he topped 100 yards three times while scoring two touchdowns. My only concern with Carson is that the Seahawks opt to use a timeshare, but I think we'll wind up seeing quite a bit him.
Considering he's received 25, 14, 19, and 32 carries in the four games he played before injury, the arrow is still pointing up and he's the team's most talented running back.
As far as the pairing of Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin goes, I think it'll be lower owned than you'd think on the surface. Baldwin's numbers have been mediocre, but he's finally healthy and the as Rotoworld's Evan Silva revealed, the Packers have struggled mightily against slot receivers.
Baldwin plays the bulk of his snaps out of the slot, the Packers secondary is dealing with injuries across the board. If there were a time to bet on the Seahawks wideout to have a monster game, I'm taking this week. And if there's any concern about Baldwin's health, we can look at the fact he played 99 percent of the team's offensive snaps in Week 10, per Football Outsiders.
I have to mention the Jimmy Graham play, as I'm really interested to see how his ownership on this slate looks. On one hand, the Seahawks have allowed just 324 yards and three scores to opposing tight ends. Along with that, Graham saw just one target (good for one catch, 14 yards) last game. Both of those things are less than ideal, but the big factor is the matchup.
Graham gets the opportunity for a revenge spot, which is always appealing in fantasy football. Beyond that, it's worth noting that Seattle is without linebacker K.J. Wright and struggled against a Rams team who hardly uses their tight ends as pass-catchers last week. I'm fine with Graham on this slate, especially considering his price.
Let's look at the 150-max lineup which has quite a few my favorite plays, but also one or two players with slightly more risk.
150-Max Entry Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Rashaad Penny ($7,200)
– Russell Wilson ($12,200)
– Davante Adams ($11,800)
– Tyler Lockett ($8,000)
– Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($7,800)
– Equanimeous St. Brown ($2,400)
I'll just put the truth out on the 150-max lineup: This is a buyer beware spot. You've been warned about the risk involved with this lineup, but that's kind of what we want, to be honest. You won't take down a 150-max game with a basic, straight-forward lineup (unless you split it with one thousand other players). There should be some risk, but it has to be calculated risk.
Seahawks rookie running back Rashaad Penny had a great showing last game with Carson sidelined. While Carson is back for this game, that's going to drive down the ownership of Penny. Although the No. 27 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft is unlikely to average nine yards per carry this week, we could see him mix in both as a runner and pass-catcher.
I like the risk with Penny because if he gets hot, there's plenty of reason for the Seahawks to keep getting him the ball. After all, Seattle didn't use a first-round pick just to leave him on the bench, right?
With Cobb out and the Seahawks struggling against receivers on the outside, this bodes well for Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. There are going to be plenty of points in this game and I believe we could see both Adams and Valdes-Scantling find the end zone. While Adams is an exceptional talent and Aaron Rodgers' go-to target, the rookie out of South Florida also deserves some love. It's also worth noting Valdes-Scantling played 95 percent of the snaps last week, per Football Outsiders.
Keeping with the trend of Packers receivers, I'll roll with all three in this lineup in an attempt to truly differentiate it. Equanimeous St. Brown played 58 percent of the snaps last week with Cobb sidelined. He caught two of three passes for just three yards, and the week before had four yards. Even at this price, I don't expect a lot of ownership. I'll happily use him in a 150-max game, and his big-play potential is waiting to explode, with this being a solid spot for it to happen.
I'll break down Tyler Lockett as well, but the whole "depleted, struggling Packers secondary" has him covered to some extent. In all seriousness, Lockett plays out of the slot as well which bodes well for his potential to keep a red-hot run of touchdowns going here. Lockett has scored in all but two of nine games this season and in this matchup, he has elite upside. To be honest, I don't mind pairing him and Baldwin together in lineups.
We'll roll right into the single entry lineup now for those who aren't feeling quite this risky, as this option is probably up your alley.
Single Entry/Cash Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($11,700)
– Aaron Rodgers ($12,800)
– Aaron Jones ($9,000)
– Doug Baldwin ($7,200)
– Chris Carson ($5,000)
– Sebastian Janikowski ($3,400)
To get past that intense 150-max lineup, we'll lighten it up with the single entry/cash lineup. It's about as safe as I can envision and feel pretty good about how well-balanced it is. While I don't go wild using kickers, I'm also not opposed to it. Sebastian Janikowski's big leg didn't just disappear as he aged, and with big points expected in this game, I'm fine rolling out either him or Mason Crosby as a solid floor play.
We're also back to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who I've plenty of praise for already. It's worth noting that MVS has seen 35 targets in the past five games and with Cobb sidelined it gives him a huge boost. Seattle has allowed 119 receptions for 1,444 yards and nine touchdowns this season, so expecting him to catch 6-7 passes in this game isn't unrealistic.
I mentioned before the fact that I believe Doug Baldwin is safer than Tyler Lockett, but that he also has the potential to put together a breakout game. Baldwin could come with lower ownership than you'd think, and if we can get him in that spot with a pretty high floor, it's great for single entry games. The 30-year-old has caught nine of his last nine targets, and the Packers secondary won't cause him any issues.
This is the first mention of Aaron Rodgers here, and it's because while he's an elite quarterback, he hasn't set the fantasy football world on fire this season. The matchup with the Seahawks isn't great from a quarterback perspective and Rodgers has scored under 20 DraftKings points in each of the last three games.
Beyond that, the Packers signal caller has also fallen below the 20-point mark in six of nine games. I'm also not overly thrilled about a primetime game in Seattle, where the fans can certainly create a home-field advantage. With all that said, I do still expect points in this game, and even if the Packers are playing from behind, that's good for Rodgers' fantasy outlook. He should also be lower owned than Russell Wilson, which is a nice differentiator for single entry games with a lot of chalky plays.
I made sure to save the best for last here because Aaron Jones is one of my absolute favorite plays. The Packers finally decided to let Jones breakout the way he's tried to all season. Last game, he rushed 15 times for 145 yards and two touchdowns while catching three passes. I'm not expecting him to go quite that wild this week, but the matchup isn't bad.
On the season, the Seahawks have allowed 810 rushing yards on 175 carries and six touchdowns to opposing backs. They've also given up 47 receptions for 428 yards and two touchdowns to the position. Jones is primed to see a big workload and has tremendous upside coming off his largest workload of the season.
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