We are three weeks away from the majority of leagues beginning their fantasy playoffs. Hopefully, my advice has been helpful throughout the season, and you have remained in the playoff hunt. One word of advice moving forward is to try not to overthink your lineup decisions.
Players have revealed who they are for this season. Some have underperformed based on their draft pick, while others are waiver wire pickups who have vastly overperformed where they were drafted. Each NFL week has its share of surprises, but you are best suited to go with what the season history has shown about a player so far.
The trade deadline is approaching in many leagues, and it is important to make rational decisions when it comes to evaluating your team. Is your team not only good enough to make the playoffs but compete in the postseason once you get there? If your fantasy team is coming off a bad week, don't base a trade on one down outing. Even elite players can have bad weeks, and the worst thing you can do is trade a player for less than market value.
That said, if you are holding onto to a player like Le'Veon Bell, but you are trying to make the playoffs it may be time to move on from the Steelers running back. If you need to make the playoffs, don't be afraid to make a move that could push your team over the edge. CBS Sports' Dave Richard offers a great trade value chart using a points system based on what players are involved in your trade.
As ESPN's Field Yates explains, the trade deadline is one of the most exciting dates on the fantasy calendar.
"I've always found the process of fantasy trades to be fascinating: There's a certain allure to making trades beyond the obvious intent of upgrading your roster," Yates writes. "Some people just like to wheel and deal. Some are always open for business. 'Every player on my roster can be had,' is a sentence some live by. A win-win deal is the goal. It's not always easy, but a good fantasy football trade is satisfying ... and fun."
The Rams-Chiefs Matchup Should Feature an Offensive Explosion
Every week, we highlight the games that are expected to be full of top fantasy performances. Week 11 ends with a gift of Monday Night Football that is sure to decide many fantasy matchups. The Chiefs take on the Rams in a game featuring two of the top offenses in the league. Kansas City and Los Angeles are averaging a combined 68.8 points per game with more than 871 total yards in each contest.
Vegas is expecting a shootout for good reason, and the over-under is one of the highest we have seen this season at 63.5. The Rams will be without Cooper Kupp for the rest of the season, but Rams head coach Sean McVay expects Josh Reynolds to be able to fill the role in the offense.
"Josh Reynolds has played a lot of good, quality football for us," McVay said per Turf Show Times. "He’ll step into a larger role and then other guys will be asked to step up. How that affects some of those other guys, we haven’t determined that yet, but those will be discussions we’ll have moving forward.”
Whether you have trade deadline or lineup questions, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @JonDAdams. Click the next arrow to see my NFL predictions for Week 11 in the latest edition of Start-Sit.
Start: RB David Johnson vs. Raiders
Sit: RB Wendell Smallwood at Saints
Johnson has been a disappointment based on where he was drafted, but things are looking up for the Cardinals running back this week. Johnson is coming off a great Week 10 where he had 183 total yards and two touchdowns. Prior to last week, Johnson had some disappointing outings.
The Cardinals running back had just 59 rushing yards in Week 8 and 39 rushing yards in Week 7 on a dismal 2.8 yards per carry. Johnson admitted it has been an adjustment getting acclimated to a new offense, but the Cardinals running back is starting to feel like himself again.
“The first eight weeks were tough, trying to get used to a new type of offense,” Johnson said per AZCardinals.com. “It was tough, but the biggest thing is I’m glad we’re coming back to the old ways...It felt good. It made me feel like it was back to the 2016 offense."
Johnson gets a plus matchup in Week 11 against a Raiders defense that is allowing the third-most rushing yards in the NFL at 141 per game.
With the way Johnson played last week, the Cardinals are going to want to continue to give him the football, especially against a suspect Raiders defense. Cardinals quarterback Josh Rosen noted he now has more confidence in targeting Johnson in the passing game than he did to start the season.
“He’s repping more of it in practice as it comes into the game plan, so definitely confidence starts to go up,” Rosen explained per AZCardinals.com.
Wendell Smallwood Has Been a Disappointment Since Jay Ajayi's Injury
Smallwood was once a waiver wire darling earlier this season. No one likes to see injuries, but there was some thought Smallwood could take over the reins of the Eagles backfield after Jay Ajayi was lost for the season.
Not only has Smallwood failed to take advantage of the opportunity, but no Eagles running back has done much to secure the position. This has led to the dreaded Running Back by Committee approach in Philly making it hard for any player to be fantasy relevant.
Smallwood had just two rushes for four yards against the Cowboys. The only way Smallwood is getting fantasy points is through his usage in the passing game, but three receptions for 30 yards does not make up for his lack of rushing production.
The Eagles running back has only received double-digit carries twice this season. Smallwood had just 24 rushing yards in Week 8 and 37 total yards in Week 7. This week, Smallwood gets a difficult matchup against the Saints.
The Saints are known for their high-powered offense, but it has been the improvement of the defense that has New Orleans looking like a contender. The Saints have the best rushing defense in the NFL allowing just over 80 rushing yards per game. The entire Eagles backfield has become hard to start and this week's matchup confirms even more that Smallwood and company should be on your bench.
Start: Steelers DST at Jaguars
Sit: Cowboys DST at Falcons
The Jaguars have lost five straight games, and the Steelers will look to extend this streak in Week 11. The Steelers DST are still widely available after having one of their best outings of the season last week against the Panthers. Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin noted the team is committed to stopping the run.
“I just think it’s continually getting better every day not only in what we are doing, but how what individuals are doing fits within the bigger scheme of things,” Tomlin said per Steelers.com. “I have said that repeatedly and I know it sounds cliché, but it all shapes up into being more consistent. More consistency allows you to have less breakout runs which brings your average down, increases opportunity for splash. I think we are better in all areas and I think that is what is creating it.”
Pittsburgh might give up some yards to Jaguars running back Leonard Fournette, but there is also a good chance the Steelers are able to force a few turnovers. The Jaguars' offense has given up the fifth-most turnovers in the NFL this season. This number could keep growing if the Steelers defense plays the way they did against the Panthers last week.
The Falcons Offense Puts Up Points, Especially at Home
The Cowboys defense has been one of the few consistently viable streaming DST's to use in fantasy this season. You should look for other options this week as the Cowboys travel to Atlanta. The Falcons offense has tended to thrive at home. Atlanta is looking to bounce back after a dreadful performance against the Browns.
Throughout the Falcons ups and downs, the one constant has been the play of wide receiver Julio Jones. Matt Ryan spoke about the impact the star wide receiver has on the team.
“He is amazing," Ryan told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. "He really is. He is a unique and special player. He is as talented as probably any player that has ever played. His skill-set is phenomenal. He works extremely hard and has been awesome to be around for his entire career. I admire the way that he prepares and gets himself ready to play year in and year out - week in and week out. It is fun to have been a small part of what he has done.”
Atlanta's offense ranks in the top 10 for points scored at 27.1 per game. Expect for both teams to put up points in this contest which makes the Cowboys defense a sit for this week in fantasy.
Start: TE Evan Engram vs. Bucs
Sit: TE Jeff Heuerman at Chargers
Between injuries and a lack of production, Engram has been a disappointment this season. The Giants tight end may not have lived up to his sophomore expectations, but that will not prevent him from taking advantage of a bad Bucs defense. Last week, Engram caught four of his five targets against the Niners for 46 yards. These are not eye-popping numbers, but I do expect his usage to go up this week against Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers give up the fourth-most passing yards to opponents at 291.9 yards per game. Engram believes Eli Manning is still the quarterback the Giants need him to be to have success.
“Eli has been doing this forever,” Engram told USA Today. “He was on the same beat back there. Everybody else was anxious, ready, hopping around.”
Engram has had a few critical drops in 2018, but Giants head coach Pat Shurmur expects his tight end to bounce back.
“Evan is a pass-catching tight end — that’s just the nature of who he is — and it’s important that we catch the ball consistently,’’ Shurmur told the New York Post. “The one thing I’ll say about Evan is he works at it harder than any of our guys. He’s had a couple drops … but he works at it, and if you believe in hard work changing the outcome of things, I feel good about him not having that be a problem. He’s one of the guys that really works hard at catching the football. He will just continue to do that, put it behind him and move on. That’s really the nature of it. If I had a guy who was dropping balls and didn’t work at it, then the rubber’s going to hit the road on that."
Don't Overreact to Jeff Heuerman's Week 9 Performance
In Jeff Heurman's first game without Demaryius Thomas, Broncos tight end Jeff Heuerman had 10 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. It understandable if you scooped up Heuerman from your waiver wire, but you should avoid putting him in your lineup for this week.
Based on his prior usage, there is a good chance Week 9 was more of an outlier than a sign of things to come. Rotoworld broke down why Heuerman's performance was so surprising.
"In Denver's first game without Demaryius Thomas, it was unexpectedly Heuerman who led the team across the board in targets, catches, and receiving yards," Rotoworld explains. "He was hogging red zone usage all along, leading the team in targets inside the 10-yard line (7) prior to Sunday, but he was averaging just 3.8 targets on the year. His 11 looks Sunday were a season high. Given the landscape and desecration at his position, Heuerman is a viable season-long flier just in case this amount of volume unexpectedly continues to be thrown his way."
Avoid putting Heuerman into your lineup until he proves he can consistently produce.
Start: WR Alshon Jeffrey at Saints
Sit: Raiders WR's at Cardinals
The Eagles offense has hit a dry spell, and things are a bit confusing after the Golden Tate trade. Jeffrey is still the wide receiver I trust the most, and Philly's matchup against the Saints means you should have some optimism. New Orleans gives up the second-most receiving yards per game at 296.1.
Philadelphia should have multiple wide receivers with strong outings starting with Jeffrey. Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz spoke about how to rectify things heading into Week 11.
"I know this one hurt,” Wentz told NBC Sports. “This one hurt. Sunday night football, divisional opponent, the Cowboys coming into our home? Really, the way we’ve played the last couple times at home is not what we pride ourselves on, and this one hurt. We have a lot of veterans in there, a lot of leadership. I’m going to keep saying the same thing — we’ve all got to look in the mirror. What can we do differently? Where can we be better? We realize a lot of people are going to want to write us off at this point, and now it’s just time to play ball and try to go shock some people."
The Eagles have had challenges running the football, and the Saints defense has been able to shut down most teams rushing attack. This means a heavy dose of passing for Wentz and the gang.
The Raiders Are Without a Touchdown the Last 2 Weeks
Oakland has mailed it in for the season, which is bad news for fantasy owners who have players wearing the silver and black. The last time the Raiders scored a touchdown was Week 8. There was some thought Martavis Bryant could see an expanded role with Amari Cooper now playing for the Cowboys.
Bryant had just three receptions for 17 yards last week against the Chargers. The Raiders running back Jalen Richard led the team in receiving in Week 10 which shows the state of the offense. Raiders head coach Jon Gruden continues to remain optimistic, but the results on the field tell a different story.
"I thought we hung in there pretty good [with] a lot of young guys playing," Gruden told ESPN. "I know we can play better and I know we will play better. I'm not going to make any predictions. I know it's dark right now. It's tough. It's tough on our fans. I thank our fans for showing up and being with us. But we're going to bring this thing back. I've been a part of it before and we've got some great people to build around and we've got some resources to keep building. I'll leave it at that."
The Raiders offense faces a Cardinals secondary that has been surprisingly good. Despite all of the team's deficiencies, the Cardinals corners and safeties have been the team's strength. Arizona is only allowing 223.2 yards per game, fourth fewest in the NFL. You should continue to avoid the Raiders wide receivers this week.
Start: QB Dak Prescott at Falcons
Sit: QB Joe Flacco vs. Bengals
Prescott and the Cowboys offense have been somewhat of a mess this season, so let me explain why you can trust the Dallas quarterback this week. Prescott gets a Falcons defense that just gave up 28 points to the Browns.
Atlanta is allowing 294.4 points per game, the third most in the NFL. The Falcons realize their only chance to win games is in a shootout, so you can expect another high-scoring game against the Cowboys.
Prescott's fantasy value is seeing an uptick with the addition of Amari Cooper. What makes the Cowboys signal caller intriguing is the additional points he racks up in the rushing game. Prescott has a rushing touchdown in three of his last four games. Prescott completed more than 72 percent of his passes for 270 yards last week against the Eagles.
After the Cowboys win over the Eagles, Prescott noted the team is looking to build on the momentum.
“We’ve just got to use this as momentum and continue to grow,” Prescott explained to DallasCowboys.com. “This is a winning team, and it’s great when you go on the road and win – it’s the first time doing that this year. It’s important for us to feel that, feel that energy in the locker room and make sure we don’t forget that.”
Prescott has a chance to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback this week thanks to the plus matchup against the Falcons. The Cowboys quarterback is available in the majority of leagues, and he's a plug-and-play QB this week especially with six teams on bye.
Joe Flacco Is a Sit Despite Having a Great Matchup This Week Against the Bengals
We are big on matchups, but they do not always tell the full story when making lineup decisions. Flacco and the Ravens face a Bengals team that is allowing the most passing yards per game at 313. The Bengals also allow the second-most points in the NFL at 32 per game.
Flacco is coming off of two bad outings. The Ravens quarterback did not throw a touchdown against the Steelers and had just 206 passing yards. Against the Panthers, Flacco threw for 192 yards and two interceptions. Not only has Flacco been in poor form, but the Ravens quarterback is battling an injury causing some to wonder if Lamar Jackson will start this week.
"He's getting treatment just like all the guys are getting treatment. We'll see," Harbaugh said per NFL.com. "We'll know more as the weeks goes on. I'm hopeful all our guys play, including Joe...It will be based on the health of Joe. If Joe can play, he'll play. He's rehabbing to play. It's up in the air; we're not worried about it. We're blessed with a good quarterback room."
Even if Jackson played, it would not be wise to put him in your lineup in his first career NFL start. Overall, avoid the temptation of starting the Ravens quarterbacks despite the awesome matchup against the Bengals defense.
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 11 Predictions