Thanksgiving is a time when we appreciate all that we have, while being thankful that football is on television to avoid making small talk with distant relatives. The actual holiday games can be hit or miss, but the 2018 Thanksgiving matchups are full of top fantasy players. Make sure to have your lineups set by Thursday morning which makes all these start-sit decisions even more important for Week 12.
If the epic Rams-Chiefs game has you wanting more, you do not have to wait long with an upcoming holiday full of great matchups. Turkey Day starts out with the Lions hosting the Bears. It could be a sneaky good offensive game if Mitch Trubisky can play up to his potential as Matthew Stafford typically performs well on Thanksgiving. As they do every year, the Cowboys get the late afternoon time slot. This year, the Cowboys host the Redskins in a game with massive NFC East implications. Washington has plenty of question marks on offense with Colt McCoy taking over for an injured Alex Smith.
Finally, we expect some offensive fireworks as NFC South foes Saints and Falcons square off in New Orleans. With three games taking place on Thursday, your fantasy decisions need to happen a lot sooner in Week 12. Drew Brees is as good as he has ever been, and has the Saints looking like a contender.
"I feel really good right now," Brees told ESPN. "I love my team. I love coming to work every day with these guys. I want to play my heart out for these guys. I care about them. I certainly don't want to let them down. I want to be as consistent as I can for them, give them confidence, put them in positions to succeed, and that's my job. So I'm just doing my job."
The Falcons-Saints Thanksgiving Matchup Leads the Way in the Vegas Point Totals
The Falcons-Saints matchup is expected to be the highest scoring game of Week 12. According to OddsShark, the Falcons-Saints over-under is set at 59.5 points. The 49ers and Bucs have a point total of 55. The Dolphins-Colts is the only other game this week with an over-under of more than 50.
As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @JonDAdams with any fantasy football questions you may have. We are reaching the stretch run of the season and want to make sure your team makes the playoffs. This time of year we are beyond trades and waiver wire moves, so much of the fantasy playoff success depends on lineup decisions.
Click the next arrow to see my fantasy football predictions for Week 12 with the latest edition of Start-Sit.
Start: TE Cameron Brate at 49ers
Sit: TE Kyle Rudolph vs. Packers
With O.J. Howard sidelined for the rest of the season, it opens up an opportunity for Cameron Brate. The Bucs tight end has proven to be fantasy relevant in the past, especially with Jameis Winston under center. Aside from scoring a touchdown in three straight weeks earlier this season, Brate has been mostly silent this season.
Brate's lack of production has less to do with his ability and more to do with the lack of opportunities he has had in 2018. Brate has been behind a number of Bucs offensive weapons but now has a chance to shine with Howard out.
"Exactly. I guess it's going to switch week to week based on what the game plan is on offense," Brate explained to TampaBay.com. "We have so many skill position players and an elite receiver like Mike [Evans]. He deserves double-digit targets every week. You've just got to be patient. Whether it's your turn that week or not, your turn is coming."
The Bucs are going to start Jameis Winston at quarterback which is good news for Brate given the connection they have had in the past. Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter spoke about why the team decided to go with Winston again this week.
"He played better," Koetter said per the Bucs website. "He got us in the end zone four straight times. For the most part he made good decisions with the football...Our quarterback play in general has been spectacular at times and not good enough at times. That's just the story of where we're at on offense right now. Almost every game we get some beautiful, beautiful play at quarterback, some tremendous throws, some great decision-making, some beautiful adjustments. But at other times we've had some bad decision-making that has resulted in turnovers, and that's hurting our team."
Tampa Bay faces a middle-of-the-road Niners defense which should not be a concern in starting Brate this week in fantasy.
Kyle Rudolph Has Been a Disappointment This Season
This offseason, Rudolph was a popular tight end to draft after the top couple players at the position were selected. Rudolph has failed to live up to these expectations. The Vikings tight end has only had two receptions in each of the last two weeks for the Vikings. Things are unlikely to go better this week with the Vikings facing a Packers defense that ranks inside the top five in passing yards allowed.
It is not just Rudolph that has struggled but the entire Vikings offense has failed to find its footing. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer spoke about what he sees from an offense that is not clicking the way the team wants.
"I don’t know if learning to play together is quite the thing," Zimmer said per Vikings.com. "We do have a lot of guys going in different spots. It might be, what is the best way to say this, it might be a little volume. A little too much volume...Let’s just play football. You run a really good out route, you run the out route. He runs a good curl, you run the curl. You know what I mean? So, maybe we just need to focus a little bit on not trying to trick the other team quite so much."
For now, Rudolph needs to remain on your bench or on your league's waiver wire.
Start: WR Tre'Quan Smith vs. Falcons
Sit: WR Donte Moncrief vs. Bills
Some people may be wondering whether Smith is a one-hit wonder, but the wide receiver put enough on tape at UCF to show he is the real deal. While the rookie Saints receiver may not get 150 receiving yards every week, he has a good chance to put together another solid week.
The Saints are in New Orleans against a Falcons team that gave up 43 points to their NFC South rivals the last time these two teams played. The Falcons are allowing the fourth-most passing yards to opponents this season at 284.1 yards per game. We are likely in for a Turkey Day shootout to close out the holiday.
Smith is also the same player who caught Brees' record-breaking touchdown pass. After the most recent game, Smith relayed a story of Brees emphasizing the trust he has in him.
"I kind of threw him by, and Drew [Brees] put it right there on me, and it was a touchdown," Smith told ESPN. "He was like, 'Why do you think I threw you the ball? I trust you.' And [being] a rookie, that just made me so happy inside."
Brees noted that Michael Thomas' presence opens up opportunities for some of the other players on the team.
"Obviously, this was a huge night for him," Brees explained to ESPN. "I think, especially early on, it became evident that Philly really wanted to take away Michael Thomas to the point where it was just two guys running around the field with him everywhere. The same with Alvin for the most part. So that was opportunities for some of these other guys to get touches and matchups. And listen, they all made the most of it."
Smith is in the WR3/flex range for Week 12. With the Saints facing a porous Falcons defense, there is a reason to be optimistic that Smith can continue his hot streak.
The Jaguars Passing Attack Continues to Struggle
Blake Bortles threw for a total of 104 yards against the Steelers. We keep waiting for Jacksonville's offense to get better this season, but there are no signs of that happening. It helps the team to have Leonard Fournette back, but it does not seem to be having a major impact on the Jaguars' passing production.
Donte Moncrief had one reception for 11 yards against the Steelers. Right now, you cannot start Moncrief or any of the other Jaguars wide receivers with any confidence. To make matters worse, the Jaguars face a Bills team with the best passing defense in the NFL.
Buffalo is only allowing 202 passing yards per game, the fewest of any team in the league. This is unlikely to be the week where the Jaguars break out of their slump.
Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone noted the team has confidence in their wide receivers but had a more conservative game plan to try to compete with the Steelers.
“Obviously, if we put them out there, we have a level of trust that they can do the job, but make no mistake about it, early on, we were trying to go out there and establish a physical mindset knowing that’s what we have to do to beat a team like Pittsburgh -- who is a very good team -- and run the football," Marrone said per Jaguars.com.
Start: QB Matthew Stafford vs. Bears
Sit: QB Kirk Cousins vs. Packers
You may be hesitant to start Stafford this week against a Bears defense that has been dominant, but the Lions quarterback is someone you can trust on Thanksgiving. Stafford has a strong history of performing well on Turkey Day. Last year, Stafford used the holiday to pass Tony Romo for the most passing yards of any quarterback on Thanksgiving.
It helps Stafford's outlook that Kenny Golladay has emerged as a legit WR1 for the Lions.
“I just think the more games he gets under his belt ... people forget he’s a young player, second-year guy that didn’t play all the games last year,” Stafford said per DetroitLions.com. "He’s done a nice job of producing for us, so I just think the more experience he can get and the more time together he and I have out on the field is going to be a positive.”
The Lions and Cowboys play every year on Thanksgiving so Stafford has lots of practice on the big stage. Stafford grew up in Dallas and dreamed of playing on Thanksgiving Day.
"Kid growing up, man, I just feel like I was probably in my Troy Aikman replica uniform eating turkey, throwing the ball around in the backyard at halftime," Stafford told ESPN in 2017. "And running back in to watch the second half of the game. I just remember doing that every year. Loving every minute of it."
The Bears defense is one of the best in the league, but opponents have had much more success passing against Chicago than running the ball. For the Lions to compete against the Bears, they are going to need to have success in the passing game. If you need a quarterback to stream for Week 12, Stafford is worth a look.
Kirk Cousins Has a Difficult Matchup Against the Packers Secondary
Cousins has only thrown seven interceptions this season, but four of them came in the last three weeks. The Vikings quarterback threw two critical picks last week against the Bears.
The Packers are only allowing 223 passing yards per game which makes them a top-five passing defense. It is not an ideal bounce-back week for Cousins. The Vikings quarterback spoke about his mistakes in Week 11, and how it will impact his preparation for this week.
“I was trying to trust my eyes, and what I felt the (cornerback) do, I don’t know that he really did,” Cousins told Twin Cities. “Just playing fast in the moment I felt like the (cornerback) was squatting and he really wasn’t. And if he’s not squatting that means the safety is going to be in a different spot than where I maybe thought he would be. That led to the interception...Any time you have a game like this you come back on Monday and Tuesday and Wednesday with a real sense of urgency. It certainly humbles you, and I think that’s a positive.”
Cousins has not been helped by the Vikings rushing game hitting a wall. Until Cousins bounces out of this slump, the Vikings quarterback should remain on your bench.
Start: RB Mark Ingram vs. Falcons
Sit: RB Dion Lewis at Texans
Alvin Kamara is obviously a must-start each week, but the Saints are proving their offense can support multiple running backs in fantasy. Ingram is coming off his second straight 100-yard rushing game. To fantasy owners' delight, Ingram is also getting the ball in the red zone as his two touchdowns in Week 11 show.
Ingram is okay not getting as many touches as he may receive if he was on another team, but still believes he can be impactful when he does get the ball.
“I’m always prepared to carry a load for our team, for our offense,” Ingram said per NewOrleansSaints.com. “I know that we have lots of weapons, there’s only one ball to get around. So I just try to remain patient and I try to stay on point and be ready for when my number is called. And when my play arises, my chance to make a play, I try to capitalize on it. We have lots of play-makers; I’m always prepared to carry the load. Of course I want to touch the ball, I want to be on the field, but I just try to remain patient and just play the game how it comes to me.”
Ingram and the Saints offense get a nice matchup this week against the Falcons. Atlanta ranks towards the bottom half of rushing yards allowed at 121.7 yards per game.
Dion Lewis Has Hit a Dry Spell
Lewis was riding a nice little fantasy streak during the middle of the season, but his production has come to a screeching halt. Lewis is averaging less than three yards per carry over the last two weeks. Lewis rushed for just 24 yards last week against the Colts. Things were not much better against the Patriots in Week 10 when Lewis rushed for 57 yards.
Titans head coach Mike Vrabel believes his team still has time to make a run, starting with a primetime matchup against the Texans.
“We are not dead – we’re 5 and 5,” Vrabel said per Titans Online. “We are still in this race, as bad as it was (on Sunday) – and it was bad. Put it all on me. I’ve lost five games, and the players have won five. I have to do a better job of not losing them, and they have to do a better job of losing them.”
Fantasy owners should be less optimistic as the Titans travel to Houston. The Texans have the NFL's No. 7 ranked rushing defense allowing 96 yards per game. Lewis' main hope of fantasy relevance for this week is his involvement in the passing game. With the way Lewis has played the last few weeks, that is not something I want to rely on for my fantasy lineup.
Fantasy Football Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em: Week 12 Predictions