The NFL season won't slow down, and crunch time is quickly approaching as the playoff picture is starting to develop week after week. At this point in the season, it's not hard to tell which teams are contenders, and which teams are pretenders. From a fantasy standpoint though, there's plenty of value everywhere. Now that we are more than halfway through the season, we can figure out who can consistently produce in terms of fantasy football.
Just because select players let you down all season, doesn't mean that they can't have a good week here and there. We're going to dive into Week 13 and find the find the best value plays that will give you a bang for your buck. After all, you don't want to just pay for a name. So, while you're setting your early game slates for Sunday, keep in mind that everybody is playing. You want to be different and find the guy who will go off on your team, but not anybody else's.
That's what we're going to break down here. We will go over some of the best bargain plays, that issue high-upside for cheap. And I will also throw in some obvious cash plays for you grinders out there that need to know who is undoubtedly going to go off this weekend.
So, for those of you who are new to DraftKings, or maybe you even need a refresher, let's go over the rules real quick.
The Rules of The Game
DraftKings is pretty simple and straightforward. Although there are many different games, you can play, and slates you can get involved in, we are going to stick with the classic slate for Sunday, December 2nd, 2018. Here is the full outlook of the 13 game slate that we will be going over this week.
- Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons
- Denver Broncos @ Cincinnati Bengals
- Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions
- Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers
- Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
- Chicago Bears @ New York Giants
- Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
- Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans
- New York Jets @ Tennesee Titans
- Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
- Minnesota Vikings @ New England Patriots
- San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Just like any Daily Fantasy platform, you are issued a salary for each individual contest. Each lineup will have $50k available. Every player will have a price tag on them based on their value each week. For this slate, Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley is the most expensive, while the San Francisco 49ers defense is the cheapest. You cannot exceed the $50k salary, but you also don't have to use it all up.
While I suggest using up the majority of the $50k salary, you don't have to if it isn't necessary. In GPP games, the idea is to find the cheapest players with low ownership percentage and high ceilings. If you figure that out, then you most likely won't go over the limit. Don't make that second-guess your picks. Just because you still have money available, doesn't mean it needs to be spent. If you love your lineup, roll with it.
Okay, enough chit-chat, let's get into this.
Quarterbacks
As always, there's a ton of value with quarterbacks during the Sunday slate. With so many games throughout the afternoon, there will be more than a few quarterbacks who have the opportunity to score well over 20 points. When it comes to the QB, it's probably best to not pay up for the most prominent name. There's value elsewhere that's much more important.
This week, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the most expensive. Playing against a weak Oakland Raiders defense makes him an intriguing play, but there is much better value elsewhere on the slate. Here are our top two rated quarterbacks for Week 13, along with an optimal lineup containing our top play for the week.
Kirk Cousins - $5,500
Many may be skeptical about Kirk Cousins ability to win big games in the NFL. Since we're talking fantasy football here though, Cousins and Minnesota's offense could be a nightmare to the average New England Patriots defense. I don't necessarily think the Vikings are going to defeat the Patriots at Gillette Stadium, but you would be surprised to see how well their offense will be able to produce while the Patriots are not that same team that they were over the last couple of years. Cousins is settled into the Vikings offense, and you can expect a big game from him against the PATs on Sunday.
Lamar Jackson - $5,900
Let's press our luck here with this one. Lamar Jackson hasn't exactly been a great quarterback during his first two starts per se, but as expected, he's been a workhorse on the ground. Right now, Jackson is basically another running back in the quarterback slot. However, if he happens to turn it up and hit his stride in the passing game, he's going to be fantasy gold. It doesn't take an elite quarterback strike great value in daily fantasy. With his third, and potentially final game starting with the Ravens, Jackson may just have a career day against Atlanta.
The Lineup
QB - Kirk Cousins $5.5k
RB - Todd Gurley $9.3k
RB - Aaron Jones $6.7k
WR - Corey Davis $5.5k
WR - Josh Reynolds $5.5k
WR - T.Y. Hilton $6.0k
TE - Eric Ebron $4.2k
FLEX - Spencer Ware $4.0k
D/ST - Rams $2.6k
Running Backs
How tough is it to predict running backs for fantasy in this day and age? With all of the running back committee's forming, it's difficult to figure who is going to be the runner that finds the endzone on a consistent basis. Sometimes, you have to decide if you want the guy with all of the yards and touches with no scores. Or if you want the guy with hardly any touches and yards, with one or potentially two scores.
For Week 13, I'd say go with the guy who is going to get a significant workload in both areas of the game. On the ground, and through the air. You seriously cannot go wrong with that. The more opportunity for points, the better off you'll be. There are some really great, sure thing backs on the early slate this week. Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffery, Saquon Barkley. All of those guys look like they are worth playing. But then again, you see the price tag and realize it may not be worth it in the end, because you'll lack scoring elsewhere. Let me help you out.
Spencer Ware - $4,000
This week, Kansas City Chiefs running back Spencer Ware will be the not-so-hidden secret as Kareem Hunt has been suspended. If you're looking for some amazing value, Spencer Ware for $4,000 is a great bargain. Not only should he produce like a top back, but he will allow you to save a ton of money to splurge on a big name somewhere else on the slate. Seeing as though Hunt is done for the year, Ware is going to get a ton of usage. But his price tag will only be going up from here on out so buy him dirt cheap while you can.
Phillip Lindsay - $5,400
The Denver Broncos got some incredible value from Phillip Lindsay this season, and so did his fantasy owners. This week, Lindsay offers some high upside as the Broncos take on the depleted Cincinnati Bengals. With their season pretty much on life support, the Broncos are going to give them a good fight. And knowing how weak that run defense is on the Bengals, Lindsay is more than worth paying $5.4k for.
The Lineup
QB - Lamar Jackson $5.9K
RB - Spencer Ware $4.0K
RB - Phillip Lindsay $5.4K
WR - DeAndre Hopkins $8.2K
WR - Corey Davis $5.5K
WR - Devin Funchess $5.0K (Questionable)
TE - Eric Ebron $4.2K
FLEX - Christian McCaffrey $8.8K
D/ST - Texans $2.7K
Wide Receivers
Similar to the backfield situation, this week has a lot of favorable matchups between wideouts and defense's, but it's not going to come cheap. If you want to pay up for one big name and utilize two under the radar guys, then go for it. Some of these matchups for the big names are almost too good to pass up anyway.
Chris Godwin - $3,900
One player goes out, and a cheap one with high upside steps in. This week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be without their deep threat, DeSean Jackson. While the Bucs can't seem to figure out who they want to play at quarterback, it hasn't really seemed to affect fantasy value for wide receivers too much depending who is under center. For $3.9K, Chris Godwin can exceed his value fairly quickly. He's been seeing an increase of targets throughout the year and should see that rate double on Sunday with Jackson out of the picture.
Courtland Sutton - $4,200
We spoke briefly earlier on the Denver Broncos matchup against the Bengals. I suggested making a play for Lindsay out of the Denver backfield, and now I'm suggesting Courtland Sutton for the passing attack on the weak defense. Sutton hasn't exactly flourished into a major role like the Broncos' anticipated he would, but this week's matchup looks intriguing on paper. Plus, Sutton will more than likely have low ownership, which could pay off big time for your lineups.
Adam Thielen - $8,000
This week, there's no matchup for the priciest receivers that makes me want to break the bank. However, Adam Thielen against the New England Patriots looks good. The New England defense is ranked 19th when it comes to defending wide receivers. We all know how successful Thielen has been with Cousins at quarterback, and it wouldn't be such a bad idea to stack the two together this week for the classic slate.
The Lineup
QB - Kirk Cousins $5.5K
RB - Spencer Ware $4.0K
RB - Christian McCaffrey $8.8K
WR - Chris Godwin $3.9K
WR - Adam Thielen $8.0K
WR - Courtland Sutton $4.2K
TE - David Njoku $4.3K
FLEX - DeAndre Hopkins $8.2K
D/ST - Colts $2.6K
150-Max Entry Lineup
– Captain: Eric Ebron ($11,100)
– Andrew Luck ($11,400)
– T.Y. Hilton ($11,000)
– Marlon Mack ($9,600)
– Dion Lewis ($5,000)
– MyCole Pruitt ($1,600)
It's safe to say that this lineup isn't exactly for the faint of heart. After all, most daily fantasy football players wouldn't have the slightest bit of interest in taking a chance on MyCole Pruitt, but there's an argument to be made for him on this slate.
Although there's a lot that needs to be figured out with the Titans offense, I find Pruitt to be an interesting name. He's one that comes with a whole lot of risk, but interesting nonetheless. When Tennessee lost Jonnu Smith for the season (along with Delanie Walker prior), it's left them thin at tight end.
Originally, Anthony Firkser looked like he'd be the player to step up and fill the void, but that hasn't completely been the case. Over the past two weeks, Luke Stocker has led the way playing 68 and 66 percent of the snaps while Firkser played 50 and 21 and Pruitt played 48 and 57 percent, per Football Outsiders. The young tight end has seen his playing time increase and has five targets in the past two games.
The most important part here is that Gabbert targeted Pruitt four times (in 72 attempts) earlier this year in games, and that was before injuries basically ravaged the tight end position. The Colts also struggle against opposing tight ends, allowing 99 receptions for 1,138 yards and four touchdowns this season.
In 150-max line breakdowns I like to evaluate some of the riskier or more questionable plays, and the choice of Eric Ebron is worth mentioning. Although the Colts tight end has a decent amount of upside, his matchup is pretty terrible.
The Titans have given up just 60 catches for 564 yards this season with no touchdowns. In short, Ebron is the definition of boom-or-bust, he's a talented player who struggles with drops, but should be able to win most matchups. If he's able to use that talent in a crucial game, I think he could be a low-owned player who breaks the slate open.
The Running Back Choices
The situation at running back for both teams is interesting on Sunday night. While the Titans have seen Derrick Henry turn it on as of late, Gabbert actually utilized Dion Lewis quite a bit of the backfield this season. He drew the second-most targets of any Titans player from the backup quarterback (12) behind only Corey Davis.
While Lewis has taken a backseat to Henry, if Tennessee falls behind in this game we could see the workload flip a bit potentially. With the Colts having the potential to put points on the board in a hurry, that's a very real possibility.
As for Marlon Mack, I mentioned previously how tough his matchup is. With a "win and get in" situation, there are quite a few times where it makes sense to simply put the matchup on the backburner a bit. It is worth noting that the Titans have allowed just six rushing touchdowns all season and rank as one of the NFL's best defenses against the run.
The final lineup is the single entry/cash lineup which is far more balanced. It's better for players who are playing games with less than 150-max entries, allowing you to avoid the heavy risks for the most part.
DraftKings NFL Picks: Optimal Lineups & Bargains for Week 13