It's time to wrap up a loaded day of Week 14 NFL action, and there was a lot to take in. While the day was loaded with games and bye weeks a thing of the past, there were plenty of wild finishes. And to cap off the day, we have a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and Chicago Bears, two teams who look playoff bound.
While the Bears sit at 8-4 on the season and lost last week, they also haven't had starting quarterback Mitchell Trubisky for the past two games. He'll be back for this game to take on a red-hot Rams group who boasts an 11-1 record. There's a whole lot to consider when these two teams meet, especially considering the Bears boast a strong defense while the Rams are one of the NFL's top offenses.
As far as the playoff picture goes, the Bears are in the midst of trying to hold on and lock up the division with the Minnesota Vikings doing their best to keep pace. The Rams, on the other hand, are trying to lock up the No. 1 seed sooner than later. Whether or not Sean McVay and company would rest anyone down the stretch remains to be seen, but that won't be the case tonight.
With that said, I'm going to take a look at the DraftKings showdown slate for this one, and offer up picks and optimal lineups along the way. I'll provide three lineups – an optimal (well-rounded, mid-level risk), 150-max (more risk, high upside) and single entry/cash lineup (safer, high-floor plays).
In case you've never played a single-game showdown before, here's a quick look at the general rules:
– Six total players (one captain, five flex players)
– Captain selection costs 1.5 times standard salary but scores 1.5 times the standard points
– Can choose from any position (QB, RB, WR, TE, K, DST)
– $50,000 salary cap
– You can use more than one quarterback
Let's start things off by evaluating the captain spot for the Rams vs. Bears game and then get into the actual lineups. All captains come with a 1.5x price tag but also award that same size bonus in points to whichever player you put in the spot.
Favorite Captains for Rams vs. Bears
It seems oddsmakers are a bit torn on whether the Rams high-powered offense or Bears strong defense will win out here. As Odds Shark shows, the projected total is set at 51 with the Rams as three-point favorites. Neither of those numbers is overly surprising, but it's good to see a popular belief that Chicago won't get run out of the building on Sunday Night Football.
As a way to construct DFS lineups (when I agree with it), I'll use the projected total as a way to help construction of lineups, especially for showdown slates. This one is interesting, though, and it does seem safe to assume we'll see offense from both teams. The Rams obviously can put points on the board, but the Bears have an impressive defense and can move the ball in their own right. In turn, this leaves us open to having the option to go a variety of ways in the captain spot.
Typically for my captain, I'll choose 4-6 options to consider, and it'll likely land around that number on Sunday night. Each player below from the DraftKings showdown listed in the group of favorites includes captain pricing of 1.5-times more than their regular cost, so let's start there.
– Todd Gurley ($17,100)
– Mitchell Trubisky ($14,700)
– Jared Goff ($15,000)
– Robert Woods ($14,400)
– Tarik Cohen ($12,900)
– Anthony Miller ($9,300)
*Brandin Cooks ($14,100), Allen Robinson ($11,700), Josh Reynolds ($9,600) and Greg Zuerlein ($5,100)/Cody Parkey ($4,500) are all options.
Favorite expensive/mid-range captains: Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, Robert Woods
Top value-saving captains: Tarik Cohen
As you can see, there are a ton of options here for the captain spot and a variety of ways to go about building lineups. While Todd Gurley is incredibly expensive as a captain, his playmaking ability as both a runner and pass-catcher still make him one of the top options on the entire slate.
Both the Rams and Bears have struggled against opposing wide receivers this season, though, providing a few strong options at the position. Although the Bears are a tough team to break down when looking at their receivers, the return of Trubisky could help provide some insight into how to approach that.
We'll dive right into the optimal lineup and I'll break down the specific picks along the way.
Optimal Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Anthony Miller ($9,300)
– Mitchell Trubisky ($9,800)
– Robert Woods ($9,600)
– Brandin Cooks ($9,400)
– Tarik Cohen ($8,600)
– Cody Parkey ($3,000)
With the return of Mitchell Trubisky, I think we're going to get a nice spot with wide receiver Anthony Miller. Although he's seen just six targets in the past two games with Chase Daniel under center, that will likely change on Sunday. Prior to the Vikings game just before that, Trubisky had targeted Miller 26 times over the span of four games.
Even more appealing than a large number of targets is the fact that Miller has a knack for finding the end zone. In a potentially high-scoring game, a player who's scored in five of the last eight games and has the ability to score from anywhere on the field is appealing. Best of all, his price as a captain allows the building of a strong lineup still.
Pairing Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks is a spot I'm pretty high on. The Bears have allowed 2,111 yards and 12 touchdowns to wide receivers this season, which ranks as the seventh-most fantasy points on average, per ESPN. While I'm a bit worried about Jared Goff's home vs. road splits against the Bears defense, even if the Rams fall behind, Woods and Cooks will be in great spots.
While Woods provides the safe floor, I love the big-play potential of Cooks in this matchup. It's also become apparent that he's done a lot of the heavy lifting with Cooper Kupp no longer in the lineup. Over the last three games, Cooks has totaled 22 receptions on 30 targets while topping the 100-yard mark twice. He has big play potential and also the ability to move the chains frequently.
Tarik Cohen will likely be a favorite play at this price, and while the Rams haven't been bad against running backs, it's going to be interesting to see how this matchup plays out. Cohen is a favorite target out of the backfield in Matt Nagy's offense, and that won't change this week. With that said, the Rams have allowed just 378 yards through the air to running backs, but have given up 65 receptions.
The workload alone makes provides a safe floor for Cohen. His upside is arguably as high as any player on this slate with the exception of Todd Gurley as well. I'll happily roll out the Bears electrifying back quite a bit on this slate.
The 150-max lineup features a major focus on upside with more risk involved and is what I'll break down next.
150-Max Entry Lineup
– CAPTAIN: Mitchell Trubisky ($14,700)
– Todd Gurley ($11,400)
– Jared Goff ($10,000)
– Anthony Miller ($6,200)
– Taylor Gabriel ($5,600)
– Gerald Everett ($2,000)
I really like the idea of putting Jared Goff with a few of his weapons, but the Rams defense is a great spot to target as well in some areas. Specifically, targeting wide receivers on the Bears could be beneficial. I mentioned the team's struggles against the position, which is a part of what led me to this build.
While not only do the Bears receivers find themselves in a good spot, they also get one of my favorite spots – being a home team in a primetime game. Mitchell Trubisky's matchup is solid in its own right, considering the Rams have allowed 3,262 yards and 26 touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks.
Trubisky should have no issue moving the ball against the Rams defense, but his added appeal comes in the ability to take off and run. As the Bears young quarterback knocks off any rust early in the game, he'll likely use his legs or short passes to wideouts and running backs to help make life easier.
I spoke before about my thoughts on Anthony Miller and his upside with Trubisky back, but Taylor Gabriel provides a huge level of big-play potential in his own right. He may be the biggest beneficiary of short passes early, but also has the chance to break the game open in the span of one play if he gets behind the Rams defense.
Obviously, one name who needs to be mentioned is Rams tight end Gerald Everett. He's certainly not the sexiest name on this slate, but at $2,000, it allows you to get a situation where your entire lineup opens up when using him. There's obvious risk (which is why he's in the 150-max), but this is a player who has shown flashes of upside. He caught three touchdowns over the past three games, but was essentially nonexistent last game.
Everett's workload and snap count will always remain roughly the same, and in Week 13 he saw 24 snaps (per Football Outsiders). I don't expect a ton of plays from him, but he's shown that he doesn't necessarily need that in order to produce. Even going back to the game before that when he caught two touchdowns, Everett played just 23 snaps.
To wrap up the appeal of Everett, you can consider that the Bears have allowed 451 yards and five touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year. They've been less than mediocre, and if Chicago gets a pass-rush on Goff, we could see some quick passes to Everett and other Rams players.
Although the single entry/cash lineup is more balanced, there are one or two players worth taking a chance on while building it.
Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson
DraftKings NFL Picks & Optimal Lineups: Rams vs. Bears Showdown