Texans Playoff Picture: Updated Scenarios After Week 17 Win

Getty Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson

The Houston Texans are playoff bound, and that one’s the one thing we know for certain. Beyond that, there are still questions that must be answered for Deshaun Watson and company heading into the final week of the season. With a Week 17 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, they can wrap the afternoon up looking very good with a win, but a few things can happen even in that scenario.

Currently, the Texans sit as the No. 3 seed in the AFC and hold a 73 percent chance to finish there, according to Playoff Status. But they could technically still land in the No. 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 spots, with the first and fourth seeds both being extreme longshots.

We’re going to break down the AFC playoff picture and also the potential scenarios for the Texans in the final week of the season. Also, we’ll take a look at potential playoff matchups depending on where Houston sits after Sunday.

*Note: Updated outlook broken down below

AFC Playoff Standings & Scenarios to Watch

Houston’s Week 16 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles hurt from the standpoint of holding the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the playoffs. Unfortunately, their chances of earning that spot back are a longshot currently, and it has a lot to do largely with the New England Patriots.

Even going beyond their battle for a first-round bye, the Texans need a win over the Jaguars to ensure they fall no further than No. 3. Although the fourth seed is a longshot, Houston could very well find themselves dropping into a wild card spot if things don’t play out in their favor on Sunday.

Week 17 Impact on Texans’ Playoff Picture

For what it’s worth, the Texans’ dreams of a No. 1 seed aren’t completely doomed, but it’d take a few big upsets. For starters, the Kansas City Chiefs would need to lose to the Oakland Raiders while the Los Angeles Chargers fall to the Denver Broncos. But even with those two outcomes, the Patriots would also have to lose to the New York Jets. There are a few other ways this can play out, but it includes ties and results even on the other side of the playoff bracket.

It’s worth noting that the Texans could also move into the No. 2 seed even if the Patriots win, but it would take losses by the Chiefs, Chargers and Baltimore Ravens. According to Playoff Status, just losses by the Chiefs and Chargers paired with the Dallas Cowboys defeating the New York Giants would also be among the potential scenarios to land them the second seed.

Due to tiebreakers, if Houston falls to the Jaguars, they’d be jumped by the winner of the Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans game. This is based on division record, as the Texans would then sit at 3-3 while the winner of the Sunday night game will have moved to 4-2. In turn, the Texans would then fall to the No. 6 seed and be on the road to start the playoffs.

With all the scenarios still to be decided, the Texans could wind up anywhere from receiving a first-round bye to facing the Colts, Titans, or possibly Steelers/Ravens (longshot) if they earn the No. 3 seed. If Houston fell to No. 6, they would then face either the Ravens, Colts or Titans more than likely.

Update: With the Patriots’ win, the Texans are nearly a lock for the No. 3 seed. They do still have a small chance at the No. 2 seed this afternoon, depending on how the Chiefs game plays out.

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