The Dallas Cowboys held off the Seattle Seahawks to start the NFL playoffs and their reward comes in the form of the 13-win Los Angeles Rams. There are plenty of storylines in this matchup, but the running back topic should take center stage. Both Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley have been elite since entering the league and will be talking points throughout.
Even beyond that, these two players will make a big impact on the outcome of the game as well. The Cowboys have a tall task heading to Los Angeles, as the Rams are 7-1 at home while Dallas has gone just 3-5 on the road this year. This explains the current betting line and odds on the matchup.
We’re going to break down and updated look at the NFC divisional matchup from a betting standpoint. Let’s evaluate the odds, line and over/under while offering a prediction and pick.
Cowboys vs. Rams Betting Odds, Line & Over/Under
All odds courtesy of Odds Shark and Bovada
- Los Angeles Rams: -7 (110), opened at -7
- Over/Under 49 (-105), opened at 49
The fact there’s been such little movement on the line and the projected total is somewhat telling. Beyond that, Odds Shark shows that the public consensus favors the Cowboys as a full touchdown underdog, with 57 percent of the action going there currently. As far as the total goes, that’s an even 50/50 split on the picks.
An interesting stat that stands out is that the Cowboys have gone 6-2-1 against the spread in their last nine games. But on the opposite side, the Rams have posted just a 4-7-2 record ATS in their previous 13 games. On the season, Dallas is 9-7-1 covering the spread while the Rams are 7-7-2.
Cowboys vs. Rams Prediction
Unfortunately, the history of these two teams doesn’t help to provide much help in making a prediction on the game. The Cowboys and Rams last played in 2017 with the Rams winning 35-20 on the road. Prior to that, they played just three other times in the past 10 years with Dallas winning each, but those games came in 2011, 2013 and 2014, as The Football Database shows.
While the Rams have a high-octane offense, the Cowboys defense has become a force in its own right. Los Angeles has been exceptional behind the play of Gurley and Jared Goff, ranking No. 2 in the league in points per game with 32.9 during the regular season. Defensively, the Cowboys ranked No. 13 in total yards allowed per game at 234.7 and No. 6 in points allowed with 20.3.
It’s worth noting that the Rams did struggle a bit down the final stretch of the season. They posted a 2-2 record, but both losses came against playoff teams in the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles. They scored a combined 29 points in those two games but bounced back against bottom-tier opponents in the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers.
While I’m confident the Rams offense will be fine, this matchup with Dallas will be a tough one. There’ll be points on both sides, but due to the strong running game the Cowboys boast and their ability to run the clock, I can’t envision them getting run out of the building. This game stays close and the Cowboys have a chance to win.
Pick: Dallas Cowboys +7