The process of deciding which prop bets to make on the Super Bowl can take a lot of time and plenty of research. While the matchup between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams features a wide range of options, one of the most popular bets is on the first touchdown scorer. This year should be no different, especially considering the high projected total on the 2019 Super Bowl.
We’re going to take a look at the latest odds on the prop bet for first touchdown scorer, as well as offer up the top choices. With the current over/under set at 56 and the popular pick being for the game to clear the over, it should make this bet even more interesting.
Before diving into the choices, it’s worth noting a few things from both sides of the matchup:
- Patriots have scored first in each of their past four games
- All four touchdowns came from running backs – Sony Michel three times, James White once (receiving)
- James Develin scored the Patriots’ first touchdown in back-to-back games during Weeks 13 and 14.
- Last Patriots non-running back to score the first touchdown came in Week 7 (Julian Edelman)
- Rams haven’t scored first in either playoff game
- In eight games from Weeks 9 to 17, the Rams scored first six times – three came from Robert Woods and two by Todd Gurley
Let’s look at the odds and offer up a few picks and predictions while nailing down a few favorites.
Odds on First Touchdown Scorer of 2019 Super Bowl
*Note: All odds courtesy of Bovada and provided by Odds Shark.
- Sony Michel (NE) +500
- Todd Gurley (LA) +600
- C.J. Anderson (LA) +700
- Brandin Cooks (LA) +750
- Robert Woods (LA) +750
- James White (NE) +900
- Julian Edelman (NE) +900
- Rob Gronkowski (NE) +900
- Josh Reynolds (LA) +1000
- Rex Burkhead (NE) +1000
- Chris Hogan (NE) +1500
- Tyler Higbee (LA) +2000
- Phillip Dorsett (NE) +2000
- Gerald Everett (LA) +2500
- Cordarrelle Patterson (NE) +4000
- Jared Goff (LA) +5000
- James Develin (NE) +5000
- Tom Brady (NE) +5000
- John Kelly (LA) +10000
- Johnny Mundt (LA) +10000
- Any Other Touchdown Scorer +700
- No Touchdown Scorer +10000
Prediction & Pick for First Patriots vs. Rams Touchdown Scorer
Considering Sony Michel (+500) has scored the Patriots’ first touchdown in three of the last four games, he’s a tough name to ignore. However, the Rams have bottled up running backs in the postseason, holding Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram in check. That doesn’t mean Michel won’t be able to score first, and I’ll likely have him as one of my selections.
Robert Woods’ (+750) stretch of scoring first three times in a six-game span to finish the year is interesting, and the odds are decent on him as well. Unfortunately, Stephon Gilmore seems tasked to cover Woods in this game, as Andrew Callahan of MassLive revealed. That’s a tough matchup and makes the bet on him riskier.
Sticking with the Rams side, Todd Gurley (+600) is an option considering Sean McVay’s interest in getting him more involved after a tough five-touch showing last game. The team could look to make a statement by giving Gurley a heavy workload right out of the gate, which makes the odds on a player who scored 21 touchdowns in the regular season appealing.
Favorite Value Picks
The value comes in with Rob Gronkowski (+900), Josh Reynolds (+1000), Rex Burkhead (+1000), Phillip Dorsett (+2000), and Gerald Everett (+2500). Gronkowski finally looks healthy and the Rams allowed 80 catches for 1,075 yards to opposing tight ends during the regular season, but only five touchdowns.
Burkhead has scored three rushing touchdowns in two postseason games but still comes in behind the five of Michel. He’s seen his workload ramp up in the playoffs after scoring just once (a receiving touchdown) in the regular season.
As for Dorsett, he had just three touchdowns during the season, but one came in Week 17 and he’s scored twice in the playoffs. This means the 26-year-old wideout has scored in three consecutive games and received 13 targets over that same span. He’s obviously building the trust of Brady and could be a solid choice for first touchdown scorer.
Finally, the Rams side provides two values in Reynolds and Everett. In a breakdown from Rotoworld’s Evan Silva, he detailed New England’s approach in the AFC Championship Game in defending receivers. With Gilmore likely covering Woods, it could lead to Brandin Cooks drawing double-team concepts, in turn opening up the chance for Reynolds and Everett to see more work. Tyreek Hill caught just one pass against the double-team looks during that game.
While Reynolds had just five touchdowns during the season, he’s done a solid job stepping in for the injured Cooper Kupp and caught two scores in Week 17. He also seen 11 targets in the playoffs and should receive a decent number Sunday. This is a hometown Super Bowl for Everett and he ran 28 routes last game. Tack that on to the fact that the Patriots have allowed eight touchdowns to tight ends and there’s decent upside in this spot.
Top picks: Sony Michel (+500), Todd Gurley (+600)
Value picks: Rob Gronkowski (+900), Phillip Dorsett (+2000)