Getty Grayson Murphy #2 of the Belmont Bruins handles the ball during the first half against the Temple Owls in the First Four of the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament.
Belmont head coach Rick Byrd has waited 33 years for this moment. Since taking over the Bruins in 1986, the 65-year old from Nashville has transitioned the program from NAIA to Division 1, made 8 NCAA Tournaments and amassed 712 wins. Make that 713 and his first-ever in March Madness.
Led by senior guard Kevin McLain’s 29 points, Belmont ousted fellow No. 11 seed Temple 81-70 Tuesday night in the First Four in Dayton. After falling behind 52-47 in the second half, the Bruins ripped off 9 straight points to take the lead for good.
Byrd was previously 0-7 in tournament games, including a 71-70 squeaker to Duke in 2008. The Bruins (27-5) tied with Murray State for the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season title but needed an at-large bid after dropping the tournament final to Ja Morant and the Racers.
Next up is No. 6 seed Maryland in the Round of 64 Thursday in Jacksonville (3:10 p.m. EST, Tru TV). The Terrapins feature a potential lottery pick in forward Bruno Fernando.
Before diving into predictions and picks, let’s take a look at the Bruins body of work to this point.
Belmont NCAA Tournament Resume
The unquestioned highlight of the non-conference was a 74-72 victory over UCLA at Pauley Pavilion. McLain hit the game-winning layup with just 2 seconds left.
The Bruins coped with the size disadvantage against NBA center prospect Charles Bassey and Western Kentucky (80-74 win) and swept crosstown rival Lipscomb, a top-50 team per the NET rankings.
While the Ohio Valley is the 8th-weakest conference in America (per Ken Pomeroy), Belmont split the season series against Morant and the Racers (another top-50 outfit). The only bad blemishes are a sweep at the hands of Jacksonville State and Green Bay in a 100-92 barnburner.
Belmont NCAA Tournament Predictions and Picks
Outside of Tuesday’s result and the near-upset over the Blue Devils over a decade ago, Belmont has typically struggled against the higher seeds in the tournament. All other losses have come by double-digits, including a 12-point decision in 2015 to Virginia.
However, Byrd is equipped with his best offense in years. Pomeroy ranks it as the No. 20 efficiency unit in the country, which includes the 3rd-best effective field goal percentage. The Bruins scorch the nylon, shooting over 37 percent from behind the arc and nearly 60 percent on 2-pointers (second-best nationally).
They also protect the rock, despite what the 11 turnovers against the Owls would indicate. Lastly, 62 percent of their field goals are assisted, which is the 7th-best mark in the country.
McClain has frequently been the star, scoring 16.3 points per game while dishing out 4.1 assists.
The real star, however, is 6-foot-8 guard Dylan Windler. He averages a double-double with 21.4 points (on 43 percent shooting from deep) and 10.7 rebounds. Both numbers lead the team.
Windler mustered just 5 points versus the Owls, but contributed 14 rebounds and 3 steals. The only interior presence comes from 6-foot-11 Nick Muszynski, who chips in 14.9 points. He can also stretch the frontcourt with over 41 percent 3-point shooting.
Maryland presents an imposing 1-2 punch inside with Fernando and 6-foot-10 freshman forward Jalen Smith. Fernando averages a double-double, while also swatting 2 shots a game. Smith posts an 11.4 point and 6.6-board statline.
In addition, guard Anthony Cowan (34 percent) and wings Eric Ayala (42 percent) and Aaron Wiggins (41 percent) can bomb from behind the arc.
Due to Fernando and Smith, Maryland boasts a top-20 defense in 2-point defense, which will challenge the easy looks that Belmont likes to generate.
With that said, Terrapins head coach Mark Turgeon has only advanced past the Round of 64 twice in his 8 seasons in College Park. That includes a double-digit loss to No. 11 Xavier in 2017.
That 6 vs. 11 dynamic will replicate itself on Thursday. The monkey is off Byrd and Belmont’s back, while Maryland still has to prove itself in the early rounds. The early pick here is for the Bruins to advance one more time.
OddsShark gives the Bruins +50000 odds to win the national title, and Maryland +8000.