Getty CHARLOTTE, NC - MARCH 21: Jeremy Lin #7 of the Charlotte Hornets during their game at Time Warner Cable Arena on March 21, 2016 in Charlotte, North Carolina.NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images)
The Charlotte Hornets made a major move tonight in the NBA Playoff race, topping the San Antonio Spurs in overtime 125-116. Despite 50 points combined from LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan, Hornets guard Kemba Walker and Dwayne Bacon sizzled to 62 combined points to move Charlotte ever so closer to the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference.
Walker, in particular, was marvelous. He nearly totaled a triple-double with 38 points, 9 rebounds and 11 assists.
Charlotte (35-39) has won 4 straight contests, 2 of them against Eastern powers Toronto and Boston (the other was versus Minnesota). The Hornets now only trail the Orlando Magic by 1.5 games for the No. 8 spot, and the Miami Heat by 1.
Unfortunately for Lamb and company, the mountain is steep to the remaining spot in the playoffs. They host the San Antonio Spurs Tuesday night (7 p.m. EST, Fox Sports Regional) before a 4-game West Coast swing.
Charlotte head coach James Borrego, a former assistant to Gregg Popovich, will have to find a way to slow down LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs center went 9/15 in the first quarter alone in the last game against the Celtics, finishing with 48 points. With Hornets center Cody Zeller questionable with a knee injury, Frank Kaminsky needs to rise to the occasion.
Let’s take a look at Charlott’es playoff chances entering Tuesday, most likely seeding and remaining schedule.
Hornets Playoff Chances & Potential Seeds
The numbers say the Hornets may still be holding onto playoff hopes by a thread. According to Playoff Status, Charlotte entered the evening with just a 15 percent chance of making the postseason. That split up into a 9 percent chance at the 8-seed, 4 percent at the 7-seed and a 2 percent chance at the 6-seed.
ESPN’s BPI is slightly less optimistic, giving the Hornets just over 11 percent odds. The metric also predicts a 37-45 record, which projects to 3 games behind the Heat for the No. 8 seed. Orlando would finish a game above Charlotte in this scenario, as well.
Tonight’s win was big. Per Playoff Status, an upset over San Antonio bolstered the overall postseason chances to 21 percent.
Most Important Games Down the Road for the Hornets
Unfortunately for the Hornets, they have one of the more difficult remaining schedule out of Eastern Conference teams according to Playoff Status. Charlotte has 5 of its remaining 8 games against teams fighting for positioning in the playoffs (@Warriors, @Jazz, Raptors, @Pistons, Magic).
Team Rankings pegs their final record at 38-44. With 8 games left, there are 6 games left with win probabilities under 50 percent. Road trips to Golden State, Utah, New Orleans, Detroit and Los Angeles (Lakers) are all under 39 percent.
The path forward is this: beat the Cavaliers on the road on April 9. Without a win there, the odds plummet. After that, hold serve in the 2 home games against the Raptors and Magic. A sweep in the 3 games just noted gets Charlotte to 38 wins.
After that, they likely have to steal at least 2 games, as BPI projects No. 8 seed Miami with a 40-42 record. The 2 likeliest options are against the Pelicans and Lakers, who appear to be shutting down for draft positioning.
With the majority of the rest of the slate on the road, Charlotte will have to reverse an ugly trend. The Hornets are 11-24 away from Spectrum Center.