Duke vs. UNC Betting: Latest Line, Odds & Prediction

Duke UNC Prediction

Getty Duke Blue Devils guard Tre Jones defends UNC Tar Heels guard Coby White

The first meeting between the Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels this season was headlined by the infamous broken shoe. For many fans who aren’t supporters of one of these two schools, that’s likely how that game will be remembered, not by UNC’s dominant 88-72 victory at Cameron Indoor. But on Saturday, Duke will look to get its revenge on the Tar Heels before postseason play begins.

Unfortunately, it seems there’s a decent chance they’ll do so without Zion Williamson. The likely No. 1 pick in the 2019 NBA Draft is yet to return from a knee injury which was suffered when he burst through his shoe during that game on February 20. As Steve Wiseman of The News & Observer reported, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski pegged the star freshman as doubtful for the game against UNC but said he had a good workout.

“He had his first really good workout yesterday,” Krzyzewski said, “but not contact, and looked really good. I haven’t seen him today, we’ll see how he is. He’ll have no contact again today. So I would say he’s doubtful for tomorrow, but we’ll put it out tomorrow.”

On a positive note, Wiseman cited Coach K stating that “the way it’s going, he’s not going to be doubtful for the tournament,” referring to the ACC tournament next week. While Williamson is likely out, it’s left the Blue Devils as an underdog, and we’re going to take a look at the latest betting spread along with a prediction and pick.


Duke Blue Devils vs. UNC Tar Heels Point Spread & Over/Under

*All betting info courtesy of Odds Shark and first posted by Bovada

  • Opening Betting Line: UNC Tar Heels -1.5 (-115)
  • Latest Betting Line: UNC Tar Heels -5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 164 (-110)

The Blue Devils and Tar Heels are trending in two very different directions at this point. Including the aforementioned loss to UNC, Coach K’s team has now lost two of their last five and narrowly avoided a huge upset loss to Wake Forest earlier this week. On the other side, Roy Williams’ squad has won six straight and holds a one-game edge on Duke for the No. 1 spot in the ACC, as they sit tied with Virginia at 15-2 in conference play on the year.

Although Duke has still posted an 8-2 overall record in their last 10 games, they’ve gone just 5-5 against the spread while UNC is 9-1 overall and 6-4 ATS. Even with Zion unlikely to play, the expectation from most is that the game will feature a tight finish, as the Blue Devils surely have revenge on their minds after the double-digit home loss.

RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish and Tre Jones will be vital to Duke pulling off the upset while Coby White, Cameron Johnson and Luke Maye are among headliners for UNC. Barrett is a name to watch, and he’s averaged 26.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists in the five games since Williamson’s knee injury.


Duke vs. UNC Prediction & Pick

It’s not surprising that the spread has moved even more in favor of the Tar Heels since the news of Zion likely remaining sidelined came out. With that said, this does seem like a bit of a trap spot. Although Duke nearly lost to Wake Forest in a prime look-ahead spot before this game, they blew out the Miami Hurricanes by 30 the game before and defeated Syracuse on the road by 10 two games prior.

I do think the Blue Devils have the talent to win this game outright, but it’s tough to ignore what UNC has done as of late. Their wins over Clemson, Syracuse, Florida State and of course this Duke team were all impressive, and they’re trending upwards at an impressive rate. If the line floats around three or four points, I’ll take the Tar Heels to get it done, but it’s not going to be by much.

UPDATE: With the updated line moving to five in favor of UNC with the news of Zion being ruled out, I’d take the Tar Heels still. If it moves any higher (six or seven), it gets a lot closer and I think you can lean towards Duke at that point.

  • Prediction: UNC Tar Heels 74, Duke Blue Devils 68
  • Pick: UNC -5

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