Getty Guard James Palmer #0 of the Nebraska Cornhusker battles for a loose ball in the second half against guard Joe Wieskamp #10 of the Iowa Hawkeyes.
As the calendars turn to March, the NCAA Tournament chatter is intensifying. In particular, which teams are jockeying for the final at-large berths? One team in that discussion is Iowa, owners of one of the nation’s best offenses per Ken Pomeroy.
The Hawkeyes are also run by one of the nation’s most entertainingly loud coaches in Fran McCaffrey, who’s in his 9th season in Iowa City.
His Hawkeyes enter a matchup at Wisconsin Thursday night with a 21-8 record, as the country’s No. 11 offense faces the Badgers’ nationally seventh-ranked defense. In the best conference in college basketball (according to Pomeroy), Iowa boasts a 10-8 mark with 2 games left before next week’s Big Ten Tournament in Chicago.
While the wins and losses look good, Iowa isn’t out of the woods yet. After a 14-point loss to 14-15 Rutgers, as well as 3 losses in the last 4 games, the Hawkeyes likely need one more game to avoid sweating out a First Four bid on Selection Sunday.
Let’s take a look at the latest on the bracketology outlook for Iowa, along with its resume and a few key wins and losses that stand out.
Iowa NCAA Tournament Resume
Iowa boasts two sterling gems on its resume with double-digit victories over No. 7 Michigan and No. 25 Iowa State. The former was an offensive showcase (42.9 percent shooting from behind the arc) against a Wolverine defense ranked third nationally in efficiency.
There’s not much else to brag about on the slate. A 11-0 non-conference record is impressive, but outside of Iowa State, most of the wins came against the dregs of Division I. A pair of top-100 NET wins over Oregon and UConn are fine, but the Ducks are 18-12 and the Huskies are 14-15.
In Big Ten play, the Hawkeyes are 1-6 against the top-half of the standings (the lone triumph being over Michigan). That wasn’t a problem for a berth until last week, when they dropped consecutive blowouts to Ohio State (on the bubble) and Rutgers (losing record).
Iowa Bracketology Breakdown
ESPN’s John Gasaway pegs Iowa as one of his teams that “should be in.”
At the risk of overreacting to events, Iowa isn’t doing its seed any favors. A team that Bubble Watch has been trying to move to a lock for over a week now has instead lost back-to-back games to Ohio State (on the road) and Rutgers (in Iowa City) by a combined margin of 34 points. Prior to the Quad 3 loss to the Scarlet Knights, the Hawkeyes were 17-0 against Quads 2, 3 and 4.
Gasaway’s ESPN partner Joe Lunardi bestows them with a No. 9 seed in the East Regional in his latest Bracketology. This would send Iowa to the Columbus pod for an opening round matchup with Baylor. In this scenario, the next opponent would be No. 1 seed Virginia (given they get past the No. 16 seed this time).
Jerry Palm of CBS Sports also has the Hawkeyes with a No. 7 seed and also out of the South. If they take care of business against projected No. 10 seed and Pac-12 regular-season champion Washington, a matchup with the winner of Kentucky and Loyola-Chicago awaits.
Bracket Matrix aggregates 127 prognostications from across the internet. Iowa averages out to a 7.83, which puts them as an 8-seed, with a smattering of brackets calling for a 7, 9 and 10 seeds.
Realistically, the Hawkeyes will be in the NCAA Tournament barring a distastrous finish this weekend and next week. Continued problems could create problems for their potential seed.