Getty Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat drives to the basket against teammates Marvin Williams #2 and Jeremy Lamb #3 of the Charlotte Hornets.
Tuesday night is arguably the most important game of the season for both the Heat and the Magic. The two are battling for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs, as Miami leads Orlando by just a half-game with 9 games left.
Both are surging at just the right time. Miami (37-38) has won 5 of its last 7, which the only losses coming to the conference-leading Milwaukee Bucks. 2 of those wins come on the road versus likely Western playoff teams in Oklahoma City and San Antonio.
This is all happening without the offensive spurt from Justise Winslow, who has missed the last 5 contests with a thigh injury. He is listed as questionable for Tuesday.
Orlando (36-38), meanwhile, has ripped off 5 in a row, including a 21-point rout over Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers. Center Nikola Vucevic notched a 28-point, 11-rebound double-double in the win.
Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra will counter with Bam Adebayo, who recorded a double-double of his own in Saturday’s 113-108 victory over the Wizards. He also swatted 4 shots in the win and will need to replicate that effort in a pivotal matchup versus Vucevic.
Adebayo’s stat line tonight: 16 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 blocks. Also was a plus-16.
Only other player to finish a game this season with at least 16 points, 11 rebounds, 8 assists and 4 blocks: Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Impressive night for Bam
Let’s take a look at Miami’s playoff chances entering Tuesday (7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Regional), most likely seeding and remaining schedule.
Heat Playoff Chances & Potential Seeds
The Heat put themselves in excellent position down the stretch by stealing those West Conference road wins. According to Playoff Status, Miami enters the evening with a 64 percent chance of making the postseason. That split up into a 18 percent chance at the 8-seed, 23 percent at the 7-seed and another 23 percent chance at the 6-seed.
ESPN’s BPI is slightly less optimistic, giving the Heat just over 63 percent odds. The metric also predicts a 40-42 record, which projects to a game ahead of the Magic at 39-43.
A win tonight could propel a run at a higher seed, but a loss puts a big dent in the overall postseason odds. Per Playoff Status, a win tonight boosts the overall postseason chances to 76 percent, while a loss brings this all the way down to 54 percent.
Most Important Games Down the Road for the Heat
Fortunately for the Heat, they hold the fifth-easiest remaining schedule out of Eastern Conference teams according to Playoff Status. After tonight, Miami faces off against the woeful Knicks, as well as a Dallas team that is fading into potential top-5 pick territory. Late games that appear tough on paper (Toronto, Philadelphia) should be against teams resting starters before the playoffs.
Team Rankings pegs their final record at 40-42. After Tuesday versus the Magic, it’s imperative that there are no trip-ups against the Mavericks and Knicks. After that, there’s 2 consecutive games against the Celtics, who are motivated to maximize their own playoff standing.
At of the 9 remaining games, 4 of them have 50 percent win probabilities, including 3 above 63 percent. The lowest game (Toronto at 24 percent) should be against a depleted roster as stated earlier.
The Heat get 5 of the remaining 9 games away from South Beach. That actually plays into their hands, as they currently have a winning record on the road (19-17).