Getty Ja Morant #12 of the Murray State Racers celebrates after scoring while playing in the second half of the first round game of the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament against the Marquette Golden Eagles.
Murray State and Marquette faced off in the NCAA Tournament West Region opener in a battle of high-scoring guards. The Golden Eagles’ Markus Howard may have notched more points (26). However, it was Racers star and NBA lottery hopeful Ja Morant who walked out of Hartford’s XL Center with the win.
No. 12 Murray State (28-4) boatraced No. 5 Marquette 83-64 to advance to the Round of 32 this Saturday against Florida State. The 4th-seeded Seminoles (28-7) eventually put away No. 13 Vermont to clinch their spot.
Morant, a projected top-5 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft, led the Racers to a tie for the Ohio Valley Conference regular-season title. He racked up 36 points in the conference tournament final to help beat Belmont 77-65 to clinch an automatic bid.
Meanwhile, the Seminoles are trying to return to the Elite 8 after a 4-point loss to Michigan last year in Los Angeles. Murray State is fighting for its first-ever Sweet 16 appearance Saturday.
Before diving into predictions and picks, let’s take a look at the Racers body of work to this point.
Murray State NCAA Tournament Resume
The Racers were close but no cigar in the non-conference against the 2 best teams on the schedule. They lost by 6 to Alabama, who fell on the wrong side of the bubble and into the NIT. More impressively, Murray State lost a 93-88 barnburner against SEC Tournament champion Auburn.
The only win on the resume worth discussing is the 12-point triumph over Belmont in the OVC finals. No other team ranked in the top-50 in the NET rankings, let alone the top-100. The Bruins, for what it’s worth, took No. 6 seed Maryland to the wire in Thursday’s Round of 64.
The Ohio Valley is the 8th-weakest conference in America (per Ken Pomeroy). Murray State’s only bad loss was to Jacksonville State.
Murray State NCAA Tournament Predictions and Picks
While the Racers have never made it past the first weekend in March Madness, the little school in Murray (Ky.) have a history of pulling upsets. As a No. 13 seed in 2010, they shocked Vanderbilt with a buzzer-beater.
Two years later as a No. 6, Murray State took out Colorado State before falling by 9 to Marquette (good ol’ fashioned incubated revenge).
Matt McMahon’s squad this year is more than just Morant. Pomeroy ranks the offense as the No. 38 efficiency unit in the country (of 353 teams). This includes the 20th-best effective field goal percentage and the 5th-best 2-point percentage at 57.4.
Morant obviously is the focus, but it’s not just his scoring (24.6 points per game). He averages a double-double by dishing out 10 assists per contest, and his assist rate in the very best in America (per Pomeroy).
One problem is that the Racers aren’t the greatest from behind the arc. Only 3 players in the main rotation shoot above 33 percent from 3, and freshman Tevin Brown leads that with 38 percent.
Three other players besides Morant score in double figures, including Brown (11.7), Leroy Buchanan (13) and Darnell Cowart (10.4). Brown led all scorers versus Marquette with 19.
Cowart is a 6-foot-8, 295-pounder that leads the team in rebounding with 6.5 per game. That’s left tackle-sized on the hardwood.
Morant and his contingent of Racers will have a devil of a time getting through Florida State’s army of tree-like defenders. Overall, the Seminoles rank No. 11 in efficiency defense and block 12.6 percent of shots taken against them.
Kabengele letting it be known a triple team won’t stop him
The two tallest defenders will Mfiondu Kabengele (6-foot-10) and the gigantic Christ Koumadje (7-foot-4). Murray State counters with only 2 players over 6-foot-8.
This height advantage papers over mediocre shooting, as Florida State grabs offensive rebounds on 33 percent of their misses (No. 42 nationally). This will be exaggerated against the Racers.
Since Jan. 22, Florida State has only lost to a pair of No. 1 seeds in Duke and North Carolina. In the ACC Tournament semifinals, the Seminoles beat another No. 1 seed in Virginia by 10.
Marquette was a team that was Markus Howard and not much else. Leonard Hamilton’s Seminoles are a much more complete team that can block Morant out the lane to limit his drive-and-kick prowess. That should lead to a return to the Sweet 16, and possibly beyond.
OddsShark gives the Racers +25000 odds to win the national title, and Florida State +3300.