Getty Nick Ward #44 of the Michigan State Spartans looks on during warm ups prior to the game against Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
Michigan State looks like it will be missing its starting center Nick Ward for the 5th-straight game. Head coach Tom Izzo says the junior is a “million-to-1” shot to play in the regular-season finale against rival Michigan (8 p.m. EST, ESPN). The winner guarantees a tie for the Big Ten regular-season title.
The 6-foot-8, 245-pounder suffered a hairline fracture his left hand during the Ohio State game on Feb. 17.
“He had no contact today, he will not be allowed to have contact tomorrow,” Izzo told reporters Friday about Ward’s recovery. “But we’ll get a better feel on how his hand feels, and then it just goes according to the pain in getting him back.”
Without Ward, the Spartans topped the Wolverines 77-70 in Ann Arbor 2 weeks ago. Xavier Tillman filled his shoes, notching 14 points and 5 rebounds in 31 minutes of play. Cassius Winston led all scorers with 27 points, including 13 free throws.
While Izzo left open the possibility of Ward returning tonight, he has to balance his team’s overall health just before March Madness. He also announced that wing Kyle Ahrens (back) and guard Matt McQuaid (ankle) will not be 100 percent heading into Senior Night at the Breslin Center.
“I think for him, he’s played hurt before and he’ll be there ready to play, I’m 99 percent sure,” Izzo said of Ahrens. “Unless something happens, he’ll be suited up for sure.”
McQuaid rolled his ankle in the second half of the Michigan victory. As Spartan Tailgate states, “McQuaid has become the Spartans’ best two-way player, and they’ll need his production on both ends of the floor against the revenge-minded Wolverines.”
Let’s take a look at how the Spartans can finish the sweep against the Wolverines.
Spartan Outlook vs. Michigan
The beginning, middle and end of Michigan State’s chances versus their rivals is Cassius Winston. The junior point guard is incredibly undervalued as a pro prospect, as evidenced most recently by his 27-point outburst in Ann Arbor. The performance came against the nation’s No. 3 efficiency defense.
He lines up across Zavier Simpson, who is one of the nation’s best on-ball defenders. The Wolverine point guard was named a semifinalist for the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year award.
Winston not only nearly tallied 30 points, but he also dished out 8 assists. With McQuaid and Ahrens not fully healthy, that leaves 2 options. One, Winston produces even more (unlikely against Simpson). Two, forward Kenny Goins steps up to the plate.
The 6-foot-7 senior racked up 16 points with 3 triples in Ann Arbor. He connects on 38.3 percent of his 3-pointers on the season. He’s coming off a 24-point showing Thursday versus Nebraska.
Tillman acquitted himself very well last time against Michigan’s Jon Teske, another elite defender. In a revenge game of sorts, Teske may stifle Tillman. That puts the onus on reserve big Thomas Kithier to manufacture some production on the offensive end.
Without Ward (or guard Josh Langford for that matter), the Spartan offense has scored 1.17 points per possession. Extrapolated out for the full season, that would rank near the top-10 nationally.
That may be a high bar to match again versus Michigan, especially with Ahrens and McQuaid not at full health. To come out on top, Izzo’s top-10 defense may have to completely suffocate John Beilein’s offense (ranked No. 20 per Pomeroy).
Either way, it’s all (available) hands on deck for the Big Ten title.